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I’ve often found myself wondering whether you are better taking 1/4 the odds or 1/5 the odds for an extra place/s and I’ve heard and read numerous responses on the matter from various professionals/pundits/tipsters/punters and I think the general consensus has been 1/5 the odds for additional places is better provided you aren’t sacrificing the odds for the win part.
I was reflecting on the results from my own selections for the jump season as its drawing to a close and most of them do tend to be each way bets on horses generally above 8/1 as that is just the style that suits me best, I’ve struggled at the front of the market and unfortunately don’t identify enough winners to be able to cope with the inevitable longish losing runs that come with betting at those sorts of odds so I need to go each-way purely from a psychological standpoint, I don’t think there’s much in it financially if going win only.
Its not a huge sample, around 50 bets but I was really surprised to find out I only benefitted in those 50 or so bets from the extra places on one single occasion and the impact on the bottom line can be quite significant, particularly when you hit the frame with large priced selections e.g. a horse placing at 1/4 the odds at 40/1 which I had a couple of gives a profit of 9pts presuming a 1pt ew bet but a horse placing at 1/5 the odds at the same win odds only gives a profit of 7pts. You are effectively sacrificing an entire each-way bet on the same terms each time you have a horse finish in the first 4 in a big field if you’ve taken 5 or 6 places.
The problem is it appears to have become the industry norm now for everyone to go 1/5 odds 5 places or more in 16+ handicaps so its not really like you have much choice anyway, appreciate the exchange will always offer the standard terms at least.
It would be interesting to see what others experience in their own betting but it looks (again small sample) to me that you might not benefit from those extra places as much as you think and while it appears to be generous from the Bookies, they probably do very well out of it, particularly if it gives punters the confidence to place more money on the bet than they might thinking they’ve got a much better chance of placing. One firm in particular who don’t offer BOG on the extra place races really are having their cake and eating it.
Each-way betting was invented by bookmakers and they didn’t do it for punters’s benefit.
You get the occasional each-way “thieving” opportunity when there’s an odds-on fav and the “dead eight,” or extended places and an overbroke place book means there’s an edge, but the overall odds (which includes to win) are compressed.
It’s annoying when the horse you bet win only at 80 (bookie SP 33/1) at Betfair Exchange gets beat a nose but, if you’ve got the stomach for it, win only betting is the most efficient method in the long term.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"‘you might not benefit from those extra places as much as you think and while it appears to be generous from the Bookies, they probably do very well out of it’
Bookies are very incredibly efficient at extracting profits from their punter base as a whole. They have all the data in the world at their fingertips and can afford to pay talented people to analyse it. Absolutely everything that they offer will be to their benefit overall. That’s not to say you can’t make it work for you if you put the effort in but the bottom line is that they will win from their punters as a whole.
As for my opinion, the most important point about the win odds was in your first paragraph. I seldom bet at the moment but when I have, better win odds are what I want. By extension, I’d rather sacrifice a place for quarter odds over a fifth if possible (i.e. better place odds). I’m backing a horse because I think it will win, not because I think it’ll finish fourth or fifth! You could say that is an argument for not betting each way at all but especially at bigger odds I see it as an insurance policy as well as an opportunity for a bit of profit. I would certainly not be taking lower win odds in exchange for more places (if the choice was on offer).
“I would certainly not be taking lower win odds in exchange for more places (if the choice was on offer).”
Agree with that. I would much prefer it for bookmakers to bet to the traditional each way terms. All 5 and 6 (sometimes even 7 or 8 places) means is shorter prices in the win market.
Hills usually do “pick your places” where you can even get 4 places in races with something like 9 or 10 runners. Look how much shorter the prices are than the normal market.
I am no expert on each way terms and have often wondered if there is any statistical information analysing the difference between a 1/4 and 1/5 on e/w.
I gave up backing e/w a long time ago just for the simple reason that, as a few have said, instinctively I felt that the bookies do not give you anything for nothing.
As Ian D says it can hurt a bit when a higher priced horse comes in a close second. But I would much rather back 2 horses in a race than back e/w.
“It’s annoying when the horse you bet win only at 80 (bookie SP 33/1) at Betfair Exchange gets beat a nose but, if you’ve got the stomach for it, win only betting is the most efficient method in the long term.”
I wonder if it would be a plan to put in a lay bet of 1.01 in running
you are not losing much if the horse wins
and if the horse looks unbeaten but somehow manages to throw it away, you get your stake back
not sure how that would work or if it would or wouldn’t be worth it, just thinking out loudCharles Darwin to conquer the World
I don’t really keep records anymore but without a shadow of doubt i believe the extra places have made a big difference over the last few years. Unlike Richard it is very rare i think a horse will win and if i think like that i back it to win, saying that i don’t really look for horses that will win more ones you can make a case for of winning and a decent chance of being placed at a price.
Probably only bet 3 horses a week on average in normally biggish fields so if i can get 25% or 50% more chance of a place i take that.
The only reason is they way things have panned out, solely because i have had quite a few big priced ones come 5th, 6th or even 7th instead of having to throw my ticket in the bin. Maybe a bit pychological as well if you are on a losing run and one of them stops the rot for a while.
Horses for courses eh ?
” I wonder if it would be a plan to put in a lay bet of 1.01 in running ”
I don’t know about 1.01 but about 5 years ago when i backed mainly win only i must of had 20 that went 1.3 in running and got beat. I could not believe it honestly, terrible it was. Worth doing Nathan if you ask me.
I gave up e/w betting quite a few years ago and tried various win and place combinations on the Exchanges 20/80, 40/60 etc.
Don’t bother with it at all, win only for me and I also decide the price that I want and unless I can get very close, do not bet.
Seen too many jockeys not ride out for a place once the chance of a win has gone.
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysIn terms of riding out a finish it’s probably worth looking at how much 4th,5th,6th pays out to the connections. £1000 paid out to 6th in the Spring Mile yesterday, that’s the training fees paid for a couple of hours.
“You get the occasional each-way “thieving” opportunity when there’s an odds-on fav and the “dead eight,” or extended places and an overbroke place book means there’s an edge, but the overall odds (which includes to win) are compressed.”
Who do you get these bets on with Ian?
Me?
Nowhere – I’m restricted all over the place.
Not a bet I ever go looking for anyway tbh.
Like I said if you read my entire posting, I’m a win only punter (at Betfair Exchange).
Last such bet I did was at Charing Point a couple of years ago when I bet a horse in the ring 9/2 each way against a 1/4 favourite that doesn’t travel well in a horse box and had come down from Cheshire.
Didn’t really expect to win but, as luck would have it, it did.
I was talking about your hypothetical unrestricted punter.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m with Botchy. I’d go close to saying that these extended EW terms are the best concession ever offered. I use them in most of my bets, and always do so if I can get 3 or 4 on the same day with, say, the first 6 places offered: I’ve had some pretty healthy returns in those perming EW trebles and accumulators. I almost always take SP with them, as the bookie is already trying to balance the concession with pre-race odds.
One of the conundrums of punting is that you (or at least I do) have spent a fair amount of time deciding what to bet and it is very easy to convince yourself that the odds will shorten so you’d best take the price. The prices I bet at, almost always double figures, a quarter or a fifth make little difference to me and I would always take the extra place unless it is obviously better value the other way – for example Flower Of Scotland yesterday morning, where Paddy Power went 28/1 to 6 places over Sky’s 14/1. Almost all others had it at a max of 16/1
An interesting topic.
TinMan, you mention the downside of taking 1/5th odds and the impact this has on your profitability. Have you done any analysis of how often your selection occupies the “extra” place and turns your losing bet into a winning one and does this outweigh the reduced place odds?
I get the impression you are keen to protect your bank from the inevitable long losing runs that betting at 8/1+ will have so perhaps winning less, more frequently, would be helpful. Of course if your selections aren’t occupying the “extra” places very often then that’s not going to help you.
Do I:
a) accept that I am contributing to the bookies’ profits, but at least have the possibility of getting my money back
b) work out the absolute percentages, and realise that the race is over.Golden rules of each way betting:
1. Don’t do it.
2. If you must do it, keep totally separate records for the win and place bets, as that’s the only way to get an accurate picture of profit and loss from the place half of the bet.
Never forget that when betting shops were first legalised in 1961, boookies paid 1/3 odds a place in small fields and 1/4 odds in all other races, without showing the slightest sign of going broke.
Those place odds were changed when the first betting tax/levy (2.5%) was introduced as an alternative to deductions from winnings. The Treasury figured if bookies could afford to absorb that tax without charging the customers, they could increase the take, which eventually led to the 10% off course tax.
Of course, when the tax was abolished, the place odds stayed the same.
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