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Predicting the correct score in football is apparently difficult, a bookies bonus, evident when the TRF had a competition on the chosen subject, however I’m mad enough to give it another crack with the added suicidal ingredient of correct score doubles thrown in for fun aswell.
My football play’s finished with a stoppage time loss and final balance of -£13.96, so I’ve topped my budget back up to £100 which at a planned £4.00 staked per week should see me through to near enough the end of the season and with a few winners and a bit of lady luck might have something left to play with for the World Cup.
The plan is to chose two matches per week and have two scorelines for each match and throw the combinations of results together so 4 singles and 4 doubles at 50p a shot. 50p is small but some of the doubles will be of odds of over 1,000/1 so I’m not being greedy just hungry.
My method of picking the scores will be a mix of my gut feeling combined with a study of the sides various home and away stats and form.
Feel free to add any comments of encouragement, criticism, your own thoughts on correct scores etc…..
Have to go out and clean some windows now to pay the bills!!
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Brentford v Leeds
The stats and averages of Brentford’s home form and Leeds away form point to lowish scoring game but Leeds are more than capable of winning this one by a greater margin.
Leeds 3-0 – 12/1
Leeds 4-0 – 33/1Huddersfield v Gillingham
Huddersfield unbeaten at home and averaging over 3 goals scored per home match and conceding on average 0.7 goals in comparison to Gillinghams away form of 10 defeats and 1 draw, scoring on average 0.63 and conceding 2.27.
Huddersfield 3-0 – 9/1
Huddersfield 4-0 – 22/14 singles and 4 doubles at 50p
total staked – £4.00Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Great idea Nathan and good luck; I hope you pull off a big win early on.
As you say, it’s very difficult getting one correct score let alone two, but I’m inclined to agree with your approach that you only need one touch and the odds will reward your bravery.
This is certainly more fun that putting a big dollop on an odds-on shot (whether a horse or a football team).
Once again, good luck; I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you.Thanks for the good luck guys, i think I’m going to need it
having had a look at a few matches for the weekend it seems quite a lot of the averages and stats that I’ve studied point towards around there being three goals or less in matches and when checking the odds for 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 the prices are a bit on the short side so I’ve decided that unless i can find some value with those lower scorelines i might have to look for some sides in goalscoring form and with potential to better their averages or just bet on Portsmouth getting stuffed every week 
.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Total P/L -£4.00[/color:oxf71jdl]
Rochdale v Shrewsbury
Rochdale have won 2-1 in 3 of their 10 home games this season and Shrewsbury have lost 2-1 in 2 of their 10 away league games which equals a combined 25% strike rate for the chosen score((if my maths is correct,))add that to Rochdale’s average of 2 goals scored at home a game to 1 conceded and Shrewsbury’s away average of just over 1 away goal per game and 1.6 conceded and you’ve got yourself a scoreline. backing the teams blind in those games with the chosen score you would need odds of 4/1 to brake even and we’ve got 7’s so i will make it a play.
Rochdale 2-1 – 7/1
draw 2-2 – 16’sNorwich v Huddersfield
The other games i looked at the correct scores didn’t match the odds i would of liked so I’m going for goals in this one as i feel both sides are better in attack then defence, Norwich can defend but in recent weeks have been letting in more goals then normal. Huddersfield are better at home but did draw away at Leeds 2-2 in their last away match.
Norwich 3-2 – 25/1
Huddersfield 3-2 – 40/14 S + 4 D – 50P
total stake £4.00Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I can tell you have been putting in the study with those selections! Goal averages and all, lol! Good luck mate, hope you hit a double in the next few weeks.
Cheers Doug, it would be good to hit an early double but just in-case i don’t i have already revised a plan for next season if this one fails.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Cheers Doug, it would be good to hit an early double but just in-case i don’t i have already revised a plan for next season if this one fails.
Care to elaborate or should I “watch this space”?
"watch this space" I’m afraid Doug, wait and see what this season brings first, will probably go for it anyway next season win lose or draw on this thread. It’s nothing exciting and not too different to the current plan but will give more chance in hitting the jackpot.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Thats cool Nathan, I’ll wait and see. I am currently thinking of changing my football betting patterns for next season, if not sooner. Got a few ideas kicking around in my head that I may pop on here (in a different thread so as not to take over yours obviously) in the new year.
Total P/L -£8.00[/color:109m5wsj]
Toulouse v Bordeaux
Playing Wednesday night and I’ve not put in too much study as haven’t had much time and my study is not worth alot anyway so I’m going for the odds this week. Bordeaux top the French table and have looked good in the Champions League so I’m taking them to hit the ground running. Toulouse low mid table have not scored or conceded much in their last five games but Bordeaux are a better side to those opponents played.
Bordeaux 3-0 – 22/1
Bordeaux 4-0 – 66/1Rotherham v Darlington
If Rotherham haven’t got a x-mas hang over they should walk this as although they have not been in great form of late they are still 3rd in the table and did manage 4 goals in their last game and any side worth their salt would want to play Darlington at the moment who have been struggling terribly for most of the season and have really gone down hill of late conceding 14 goals in their last three away games.
Rotherham 5-0 – 33/1
Rotherham 6-0 – 66/14 S + 4 D – 50P Total £4.00
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Fecking weather, Rotherham v Darlington was postponed it was a banker 6-0 aswell, will have to wait for another time for that one. Ive got £1.00 back and am going to stick the whole lot on Sunderland to beat Everton 1-0 – 7/1.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Nearly had the 1-0 Sunderland there, Everton equalized in the last 5 minutes.
Total P/L -£12.00[/color:3o4hjmsp]
Nottingham Forest v Birmingham
FA Cup 3rd round match between two sides who are both in really good form at the moment and are doing better than most would of predicted at the start of the season. Forest currently on an unbeaten 16 game run with 5 clean sheets in their last 5 games and Birmingham unbeaten in 11 not scoring or conceding many and putting it up to the big sides aswell. Neither side will want their runs to come to an end so it could be one of those tight games with a single goal being enough to win it.
Birmingham 1-0 – 7/1
Nottingham Forest 1-0 – 7/1Wycombe v Norwich
Wycombe looked to have turned the corner with a win v Millwall but are struggling again and in their last two games have conceded plenty of goals come up against a Norwich team that I’ve really taken to and Norwich will be looking to close the gap with others on cup duty, strong defensive, work hard and should win this one.
Norwich 3-0 – 12/1
Norwich 4-0 – 33/14 S + 4 D – 50P TOTAL £4.00
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Total P/L -£16.00[/color:1sb6dan0]
Walsall v Norwich
Not sure if this will beat the weather and sorry to Andrew Hughes for taking your boys on but i am sticking to the form side Norwich who again have another opportunity to close the gap on Leeds at the top of the table.
Norwich 3-0 – 18/1
Norwich 3-1 – 16/1Newcastle v Plymouth
Going by league positions and the odds for this match you would expect an easy home win and it might turn out that way but I’m not quite convinced and feel Newcastle have been slightly under performing in recent matches whilst Plymouth have picked up confidence of late with winning away to Cardiff then thrashing Reading, Newcastle’s priority will be promotion and whilst Plymouth’s is survival i feel they will be in the better frame of mind.
Plymouth 2-1 – 28/1
Draw 2-2 – 25/14 S + 4 D .50P – Total £4.00
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Walsall v Norwich was postponed so that’s left me with 6 .50p singles of which 3 are on the 2-2 draw and 3 on Plymouth winning 2-1 and £1.00 returned from the Norwich singles which I’m going to re-invest on the L’pool v Reading game tonight.
Liverpool v Reading
I’m hoping Reading turn up with confidence after performing the better of the sides in the 1st tie and with an attitude of nothing to lose and play with the same attacking style. Liverpool’s defence is still rocky but they will be taking the FA Cup seriously and i feel they will get the job done tonight preferably with one of these scorelines.
Liverpool 3-2 – 33/1
Liverpool 4-2 – 66/1.50p singles.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Total P/L -£20.00[/color:2jskb4lh]
I couldn’t find much i liked in the shape of a double but Ive been trying to take on Darlington for ages and they keep getting postponed so it’s just the singles for this weekend.
Darlington v Aldershot
Both sides have had a long break, Darlington more than capable of conceding goals whilst Aldershot scored 4 in their last game and put 5 past Dagenham @ Redbridge away from home in early December, they sit 7th in the table and are not too many points away from the automatic promotion places so will have plenty of motivation for this one.
Aldershot 3-0 – 14/1
Aldershot 4-0 – 40/1both singles at £2.00(total staked £4.00)
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
having had a look at a few matches for the weekend it seems quite a lot of the averages and stats that I’ve studied point towards around there being three goals or less in matches and when checking the odds for 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 the prices are a bit on the short side so I’ve decided that unless i can find some value with those lower scorelines i might have to look for some sides in goalscoring form and with potential to better their averages or just bet on Portsmouth getting stuffed every week 
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