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Judging by some of the posts on the royal ascot forum, not only do some people win on two year old races but they win big on every type of race going, and it’s easy as pie for them
As long as they didn’t have to tell us what they were backing until AFTER the meeting
I feel people are looking for some sort of shortcut magical formula for selecting 2YO horses to bet on. The simple answer is that there isn’t one.
I rarely bet on unraced 2YO horses because I can’t get to the track to see them in the flesh and look for size, physique and fitness level. Breeding is an obvious starting point and entries can give clues but you need to be careful because some owners seem to enter them for big races in a job lot, purely based on their breeding.
I like to see them and take the meaningful, tangible, evidence to make a judgement the next time they run. Ratings garnered, however flimsy they may be, are at least a very loose indicator of merit but it is the amount of improvement that I feel a horse possesses that is the biggest single factor in placing a bet.
There is a race on Saturday that is a good example to look at.
The 2.40 at Newmarket is a 6F Listed Race for 2YO Fillies and it sees a typical tricky looking field with some of the usual trainers fielding contenders.
I came to this race looking to oppose the narrow favourite Elizabeth Bennett. Charlie Hills has never been a trainer for me to follow and his filly was third on debut before winning a Lingfield Novice race easily, by 5 lengths next time. The trouble is that that race was a Class 5 affair, worth less than £3000 to the winner. The form of that race looks weak and Elizabeth Bennett is now coming up four levels to Class 1 company. I think she is a bad favourite, with the stable 1/20 the past week or so.
The obvious one to consider next is Richard Fahey’s Dance Diva, who is 2/2, winning at Redcar and then Haydock. She was favourite on both starts and the form looks nothing special but she should be in the reckoning here. Off putting for me is that Miss DD only has half a length to find from her previous clash with Dance Diva and she has since won at Pontefract. Available at 14/1, Miss DD looks better value, with so little to find on form, she sports first time cheekpieces here despite winning last time.
Ellthea came on from a debut 4th to win at Carlisle. It’s hardly a hotbed for class but the third has won since. The trouble is that the from is at 5F and the Newmarket 6F will be a different test. On balance she has a bit to do for me.
One that interests me a bit at bigger odds is So Hi Society. She ran over 5F on firm ground at Bath and finished third in a race that didn’t work out well. She didn’t have the pace to challenge that day but it was a different story at Chepstow next time, stepped up to 6F and on soft ground. She was still very green that day and it looked like she had thrown the race away when wandering in front. Credit to her for knuckling down and staying on again to get her head in front. This trip is obviously no problem for her and at 14/1 she could be better value than some here.
Racing Post figures don’t help a lot here, Elizabeth Bennett is top rated but her figure is on the all-weather. It’s pretty close between some of the others but for me the biggest potential improver in this race is Richard Hannon’s Tajaanus. This daughter of Arcano made a winning debut over course and distance back in May. The bare form of that race is nothing special at all but the performance promised so much for the future. Tajaanus fell out of the stalls and was slowly away. The jockey didn’t panic though and she was travelling well enough within herself. I initially felt she wouldn’t quite catch the leader and was going to make 2nd place, sure fire maiden winner next time start to her career, however she finished well enough to collar the ultimate second.
I marked down Tajaanus as a horse to make above average improvement and I would expect Timeform to have given her the capital P. I know that I did anyway. I don’t think she has much to find with the best of these and I had half expected to see Tajaanus at Royal Ascot. Perhaps they wisely avoided taking on the big guns for now. Hannon took this race last year with Fair Eva’s old sparring partner Nations Alexander and I believe they can follow up here with the scopey Hamdan Al Maktoum owned Tajaanus. She was my bet at 4/1
Of the others, Elizabeth Bennett and Dance Diva look too short. I am not sure the latter improved much from race 1 to 2 and there seemed better value with Miss DD and So Hi Society, with the latter preferred narrowly, as she can handle any further rain that falls and looked very green despite winning last time.
Tajaanus is a course and distance winner, faces the same ground here as things stand and is open to the most improvement in my opinion.
Tajaanus 4/1 is my pick.
That’s the way I broke this race down and there is no shortcut. In my mind, if you are taking stable whispers or just following the betting, you are not backing your own opinion or trusting your own eyes, thought process and experience. It’s a tough old game we play and time is often the enemy.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks SteveC, some useful guidelines there and that detailed example is a very good one to get a newbie like me thinking in a more structured way about analysing runners.
I agree that it’s a much better way to go about it.
Basically it comes down to hard work- if you put the time in, then it can pay off. The problem is a lot of the time I bet on feel and emotion and of course that approach is completely hopeless.
I mean it takes time to do analysis on the race- I imagine that Steve put in at least an hour just looking at that one race- looking at the form, watching the race videos etc.
If you just walk into a betting shop and have a bet you’ve got no chance.
There was a form line carved between So Hi Society and Dance Diva at Newmarket this evening.
Vodka Pigeon is the horse that links the two. Vodka Pigeon ran second to Dance Diva last time and was beaten a length. Tonight she was third to Oriental Song but was spanked an easy 8 lengths by the winner. On Oriental Song’s only prior start she was second to So Hi Society in the Chepstow race won by Archie Watson’s filly.
That is a much more comprehensive beating that Vodka Pigeon received from the impressive six length winner Oriental Song than had been dished out by Dance Diva last time. The other reason I was against Dance Diva tomorrow was that she ran to 76 on RPR first time and only 80 for her second win. I would expect more improvement than that between first and second starts.
Oriental Song has probably made a significant improvement tonight and looks useful in her own right for Owen Burrows.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There was a form line carved between So Hi Society and Dance Diva at Newmarket this evening.
Vodka Pigeon is the horse that links the two. Vodka Pigeon ran second to Dance Diva last time and was beaten a length. Tonight she was third to Oriental Song but was spanked an easy 8 lengths by the winner. On Oriental Song’s only prior start she was second to So Hi Society in the Chepstow race won by Archie Watson’s filly.
That is a much more comprehensive beating that Vodka Pigeon received from the impressive six length winner Oriental Song than had been dished out by Dance Diva last time. The other reason I was against Dance Diva tomorrow was that she ran to 76 on RPR first time and only 80 for her second win. I would expect more improvement than that between first and second starts.
Oriental Song has probably made a significant improvement tonight and looks useful in her own right for Owen Burrows.
I think the difference between you and me Steve is I’m more on feel and you’re more putting the work in
I guess if I had to choose then the hard work would win everytime but it’s more of a bit of fun for me, as I guess it is for you
I came to this race looking to oppose the narrow favourite Elizabeth Bennett. Charlie Hills has never been a trainer for me to follow and his filly was third on debut before winning a Lingfield Novice race easily, by 5 lengths next time. The trouble is that that race was a Class 5 affair, worth less than £3000 to the winner. The form of that race looks weak and Elizabeth Bennett is now coming up four levels to Class 1 company. I think she is a bad favourite, with the stable 1/20 the past week or so.
Longer time analysis gives Charlie Hills a poorish strike rate. However, I do believe that a lot of “trainer in form” analysis covers too long. Last 4 days from June 26th Chralie is 4 from 14 (28.6%) which compares really well with his overall strike rate. Those winners came at odds of 3/1, 6/1, 12/1 and 5/1, so they didn’t have an obvious chance. There were also 3 second places and a third in that time period too. In my “trainers in form” analysis Charlie is top of tomorrow’s race with 8 out of 10, with Richard Fahy on 7/10.
Elizabeth Bennett might have won a class 5, but she won it by 5 lengths (6 if you consider the second’s jockey was an apprentice well worth his 3 lbs). You wouldn’t expect horses 6+ lengths behind to do that well and those who’ve run haven’t done too badly. Form considering winning distance is pretty good. Tajaanus‘s form comes from only one grade “better” (4) and only beat runner-up Queen Penn 1/2 length with a nose back to third Villa Tora. However, as you say Steve, Tajaanus has bags of improvement in her. There’s also an extremely important going angle. Hannon horse has form on soft where as Elizabeth bennett does not, neither does Dance Diva although she is by Mayson – normally a soft ground influence and a test of stamina at the trip could suit the Fahy runner. At the moment am less keen on the latter. Has won both starts but didn’t seem to improve that much – quite a bunched finish and runner-up Vodka Pigeon did nowt for the form at Newmarket this evening. At the prices (double figures) am more interested in the Fahy second string Maggies Angel who’s got progressive form at 5f and could improve for the step up to 6f judged on the class 2 Hilary Needler. Finishing strongly and coming out the best horse at the weights. Karl Burke’s Ellthea will come in to consideration if the rain continues as she’s proven on very soft ground and few two year olds cope with such conditions. As well as horses needing to act in the underfoot conditions, what’s often missed is very soft ground also places emphasis on stamina – be similar to 6 1/2 furlongs on good. So Elizabeth Bennett and Maggies Angel wouldn’t be sure to stay if ground goes too soft.
Most likely:
If I think it’s truly good-soft then 7/2 Elizabeth Bennett will imo be a good bet along with Maggies Angel at double figure odds, with a saver on Tajaanus.
If thinking it’s very soft may give the race a miss.Juded by times the ground at Newmarket got no worse than good-soft, but there is a little more rain in the forecast.
Value Is EverythingI don’t ever like horses who have won on the all-weather and then going on turf- think they are normally overbet
Tajaanus 4/1 best last night. Out to 11/2 with bookmakers and 15/2 exchanges.
Does someone somewhere know something?
Value Is EverythingLonger time analysis gives Charlie Hills a poorish strike rate. However, I do believe that a lot of “trainer in form” analysis covers too long. Last 4 days from June 26th Chralie is 4 from 14 (28.6%) which compares really well with his overall strike rate. Those winners came at odds of 3/1, 6/1, 12/1 and 5/1, so they didn’t have an obvious chance. There were also 3 second places and a third in that time period too. In my “trainers in form” analysis Charlie is top of tomorrow’s race with 8 out of 10, with Richard Fahy on 7/10.
Elizabeth Bennett might have won a class 5, but she won it by 5 lengths (6 if you consider the second’s jockey was an apprentice well worth his 3 lbs). You wouldn’t expect horses 6+ lengths behind to do that well and those who’ve run haven’t done too badly. Form considering winning distance is pretty good. Tajaanus‘s form comes from only one grade “better” (4) and only beat runner-up Queen Penn 1/2 length with a nose back to third Villa Tora. However, as you say Steve, Tajaanus has bags of improvement in her. There’s also an extremely important going angle. Hannon horse has form on soft where as Elizabeth bennett does not, neither does Dance Diva although she is by Mayson – normally a soft ground influence and a test of stamina at the trip could suit the Fahy runner. At the moment am less keen on the latter. Has won both starts but didn’t seem to improve that much – quite a bunched finish and runner-up Vodka Pigeon did nowt for the form at Newmarket this evening. At the prices (double figures) am more interested in the Fahy second string Maggies Angel who’s got progressive form at 5f and could improve for the step up to 6f judged on the class 2 Hilary Needler. Finishing strongly and coming out the best horse at the weights. Karl Burke’s Ellthea will come in to consideration if the rain continues as she’s proven on very soft ground and few two year olds cope with such conditions. As well as horses needing to act in the underfoot conditions, what’s often missed is very soft ground also places emphasis on stamina – be similar to 6 1/2 furlongs on good. So Elizabeth Bennett and Maggies Angel wouldn’t be sure to stay if ground goes too soft.
Most likely:
If I think it’s truly good-soft then 7/2 Elizabeth Bennett will imo be a good bet along with Maggies Angel at double figure odds, with a saver on Tajaanus.
If thinking it’s very soft may give the race a miss.Juded by times the ground at Newmarket got no worse than good-soft, but there is a little more rain in the forecast.
Have now backed Elizabeth Bennett @ 7/2 and Maggies Angel @ 10/1 with a saver on Tajaanus.
Value Is EverythingI don’t ever like horses who have won on the all-weather and then going on turf- think they are normally overbet
Interesting point Judge. I don’t like outright rules personally. It is only a slight concern for me today. Although had EB been USA bred it would probably have stopped me backing her.
Value Is EverythingI don’t like the alarming drift on Tajaanus. It stinks of something wrong.
I’ve had a cover bet on So Hi Society, who has won on soft and I feel she is overpriced at 12/1, with a nice form boost last night.
So Hi Society 12/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like dance duty in that fillies race.
You were right, Judge. Good call.
Beat my double figure priced filly!
Think you’re right about Elizabeth too. Showed a scratchy action that may not be suited by ground on the soft side.
Value Is EverythingI like dance duty in that fillies race.
You were right, Judge. Good call.
Beat my double figure priced filly! Think you’re right about Elizabeth too. Showed a scratchy action that may not be suited by ground on the soft side.
cheers ginger mate
There was just something about the way that she won her first race that suggested that she had that touch of class- like lazy but talented- sometimes that’s the only clue you need.
Nice win for Dance Diva. Tajaanus was desperately green again, if anything she was worse than last time. Slowly away again and then all over the shop. Looks like 7F will suit her better.
The plan was to take Elizabeth Bennett on and that was achieved as she never looked likely. So Hi Society ran a solid race at good odds.
I just felt Dance Diva hadn’t come forward much last time but she certainly did today. Well done Judge, as you say, sometimes you just see something in a horse and keep the faith in them.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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