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Intuitive – using or based on what one feels to be true even without conscious reasoning; instinctive.
Come off it, Judge. Any punter basing bets on intuition instead of analysis of form will be backing “the wrong horses”.
Value Is EverythingLike I say you have your approach but not everyone is the same- do you really believe that the only way to successful punting is to only follow your approach? with all this obsession about trainer form and backing half the field? if so you’re insane mate.
your arrogance is beyond belief at times. I regret my earlier praise of you, to be honest. you’re always having a dig.
Do you want to change your ways or not?
Am concerned for your own future and am not going to tell you lies, because I don’t want you to continue “backing the wrong horses”. Of course to do that I’ve got to try and show what you’re doing/thinking is wrong. Not “having a dig”.Just trying to save you money here.
When the fun stops, STOP!
Value Is EverythingEvening TJ1
Just reading through……Plenty for you to ponder going forwards positively.
I sense you may have asked for one lump,been given the whole sugar cane?
Take a wild guess here…..everyone contributing knows these feelings,it comes with the territory.
The written word rarely reads as intended.
Plenty of support here…….gently,gently…..
Best of luck
I think any punter should have a selection process that helps them to avoid bad bets.
You need to strongly consider the level of form, the race distance and the current going before anything else. The trainer and his/her current form is the next port of call.
I tend to avoid any serious bet when the draw is likely to be a factor. Handicaps are another area where I don’t tend to tread, especially where all the runners are pretty much exposed. I might do a few 3YO handicaps, especially early in the season and at a decent standard hopefully on runners with not many runs under their belt, but no nurseries for me.
I think it is important to be patient and selective for a “Proper” bet. Don’t get involved in the everyday dross and wait until you have seen an opportunity and study it really well. Focusing hard on one race, considering every runner’s chance, will be more successful than skimming through lots of races.
I tend not to look at many races at all, because it avoids the “Oh, I was looking at that one” factor. Some people get paranoid about leaving one they were looking at to win unbacked. You need to be able to see one win without your money on it and realise that more often than not they won’t win.
I find it useful to analyse how your horse won. Did it win in the manner expected and for the reason you expected it to? Some people will tell you “They all count” but if you have collected for reasons other than those expected, you may just have been lucky on the day. You will get paid but if your reasoning was unsound, it makes it unlikely that you will keep being lucky.
Long term you need value. Inappropriate prices against actual chance means that you will lose long term. Better odds for your selections allows you to put on less to win the same amount. A 20/1 winner buys you plenty of losers at the same stake. An odds-on shot means that you are down overall if your next horse to the same stake loses.
That’s my £14.11’s worth anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
yes but your whole patronising tone doesn’t really do you any favours, you always post like you’re speaking to a child.
This is where you and I disagree. I think there’s more to picking horses than reading “form”. In fact I think form is overrated in general. I prefer to watch videos and make my own judgements about horses. I couldn’t care less than horse X beat horse Y by five lengths further than horse Z did, therefore horse x is more likely to beat horse z. zzzzz.
If that’s what’s needed to win, you can keep it.
Am trying to help someone who hasn’t understood what he’s doing wrong in the past to understand now, by using basic language. Not apologising for that, but am obviously still failing.
You’ve got to want help before anyone can help.
Value Is EverythingIf you’re happy “backing the wrong horses” carry on then, Judge.
Value Is EverythingThis is where you and I disagree. I think there’s more to picking horses than reading “form”. In fact I think form is overrated in general. I prefer to watch videos and make my own judgements about horses. I couldn’t care less than horse X beat horse Y by five lengths further than horse Z did, therefore horse x is more likely to beat horse z. zzzzz.
If that’s what’s needed to win, you can keep it.
First and last lines of your opening post:
I thought of this thread because of my dismal run on horse racing not just of late but most of my adult life…
….Is it possible to get out of this affliction or is it something that I’m stuck with for the rest of my punting days?
Yes, imo it is possible to get out of the “affliction”, but you’ve got to be at least willing to work for it. Intuition won’t get any better. Seems you are “stuck with backing the wrong horses for the rest of your punting days”.
Sorry I couldn’t help.
Value Is EverythingThere is certainly a ‘talent’ element to gambling successfully. A difficult to quantify innate ability to ‘know’ when a horse is going to perform. This also HAS to be backed up with analysis to be successful.
The top sportsmen in any sport have extreme talent but no way would they get to the very top of their game without the hard work to back it up.
By analysis I don’t just mean form study and race replay watching but also, reading opinions of the best judges (and most I find are on this site), not following them blindly but helping them to form your own opinion.
As Steve says, focus on the graded races, I won’t gamble a penny between now and March 13th but at that point I’ll have studied the **** out of the major races that week and have a very good ‘plan of attack’.
Nobody needs to tell you betting on dross day in day out is the fast way to the poor house.
Nobody needs to tell you betting on dross day in day out is the fast way to the poor house.
I specialise in ‘dross’. I think people who take this hoity-toity attitude to low-grade racing just don’t know the pool of horses, trainers and gaff tracks well enough. Hugh Taylor is a shining example to all who doubt that it is possible to win (and win well) on low-grade racing.
agree with steve and pants I only bet on pattern races and the big major handicaps (flat racing only) even after 40+ years of studying/betting I still have no feel for NH racing, so I leave that to my son.
It is hard work with the form book, but I will say some do make punting harder than it actually is,
IE,they think horse A will win but don’t like the price, so then they try and find the ‘value’ bet.
That may work for some but my first port of call is, who do I think will win said race?if I am not happy with the price of the selection, i move on to next race.Good luck what ever way you punt
LS3
I doff my cap to people like HT and yourself if you can make it pay on the lower grade racing. I admit although I make it pay with better racing, i would be in the poor house within weeks backing at the gaffs
Nobody needs to tell you betting on dross day in day out is the fast way to the poor house.
I specialise in ‘dross’. I think people who take this hoity-toity attitude to low-grade racing just don’t know the pool of horses, trainers and gaff tracks well enough. Hugh Taylor is a shining example to all who doubt that it is possible to win (and win well) on low-grade racing.
I think if bare form study is your thing and your good at it and you do focus on lower grade then yes I agree a profit can be made. Do you find that their is very little ‘chit chat’ i.e. trainer/jockey/pundit comments a help or a hindrance to your punting at this level?
I have no problem with lower level racing,, like most of us I have limited time to indulge my racing/gambling hobby so I use that time to follow the high end races, simply don’t have time for any more than that.
The trouble with the dross is that it just doesn’t interest me at all. I have no doubt that opportunities will arise there as well but you would need a metal detector to find the nuggets, or get down and rake through the muck.
As the coal miner’s wife would say, “The money is clean” but I just can’t get enthused and if you don’t know that sphere enough to spot the correct opportunities, I feel it would be what some used to refer to as “The all-weather bingo”
Sticking to the better quality means I will probably know the runners already and sometimes know their ratings and preferred conditions off the top of my head. It’s nothing at all to do with snobbery. In addition, I will probably have a much better idea of what the next target for the horse will be and can get involved ante-post in reasonable confidence that they will actually turn up.
Each to their own.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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