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I think I do well on the big races where the horses have established form without having to do a huge amount of work.. the races where I tend to lose on are the handicaps/maiden hurdles/national hunt flat races so of course the commonsense thing is to cut out betting on these altogether… hopefully I can show the strength of mind to do so.
That is why I started my DLAP thread and try to include reasons. I force myself to post every bet on there. If it’s too stupid and embarrassing to post on DLAP, it isn’t good enough to bet. If I can’t come up with a better reason to write down than “I’m bored and fancy a bet, and I’m going to back the only one of the runners that I’ve actually heard of in this obscure low grade handicap” or occasionally “I had a winner! I’m gonna plonk half my winnings on the first runner that takes my eye in the next race even if it’s a donkey derby in Ballygobackwards Bog cos I’m god’s gift to punting and will select the winner in half a minute with my tremendous flair for the game” then I don’t place the bet. It works- I have reduced my junk bets on bumpers, maidens and crappy handicaps since I started my thread.
It’s a bit demoralising at times; my thread is in the red- a recent small winner just made it a slightly smaller negative number, whooppeedoo- but I reduced throwaway bets since I started it.
Some punters back horses without any interest in the sport other than financial gain. They follow certain tipsters, use stats and simply place their bets.
I love the sport and very often watch races without having a bet. I’m interested in the pedigrees, the emotional stories like Bryony Frost, the groom crying after her horse walks away from the green screens…
However, I’ve learned and am learning not to bet on horses I like or with trainers I respect when form, stats and my head tell me it’s unlikely to win. You have to ingore your heart.
Some will have a favourite horse and back it all season. It races seven times, wins once at 5-1 and they’re happy. It might win at 12-1 but have 20-30 horses like that and it becomes an expensive love affairMy pet name for the boys in blue is Godawful and I tend to avoid their horses unless the price screams value. I don’t understand their operation, the multi trainer / multi jockey system.
Also, I avoid a Varian horse after a win. The amount of times they flop on their next appearance is incredibleNo, Judge. It’s not that they’re “not comfortable” with winning. The punters that “want to lose” are those that understand (either consciously or sub-consciously) they’re either not good enough at analysing races or haven’t got the temperament to make a profit (eg too lazy). Therefore, when wins come only rarely they get a far bigger buzz/enjoy those victories much more than any professional gambler or punters used to winning. ie By losing a lot they get maximum enjoyment when the big win does come along – and that’s what they’re essentially after.
Value Is EverythingUnless you are clued up on PTP form or think you have an edge with breeding, Maidens and bumpers are very hard to make profit on I feel. I used to be a sucker for both, now I don’t touch them betting wise although i’ll still watch them as enjoyment/notes going forward.
I will bet on the champion bumper and perhaps every now and then a winners hurdle as there is form to base an opinion on.
The main thing I recommend to anyone having a punt is that you should not be looking for the winner of the race. You should be looking at the horse that is overpriced.
People say there is no such thing as a ‘value loser’ but either that person is very good at punting the top of the market or they’re simply losing.
Another thing that has helped me is to try and refrain from backing anything 2/1 or lower unless I find the price well over what I would have it at.
It all comes down to if you bet for fun and are ok with losing, or whether you want to take a more serious approach to it and remove a small amount of the fun. An example is that i’ll have a bet in most of the TV races on a Saturday, and although I apply the same value method to all of it, my staking will differ based on how much I fancy each selection.
That’s possible, but from my own experience of sports psychology (and gambling is in some way a sport) some people are just not comfortable with winning.
Also a lot of gamblers aren’t really even after the big win, I don’t mind the guy who takes a flyer at something trying to have it off, what’s worse in my view is when you get gradually chipped away and never put yourself in a position to win a decent amount
Do you actually enjoy analysing horse racing ? Studying form for prolonged periods?
If the answer is no youv probably found the solution to why your losingMost regular punters just like having a quick read through, find what they like bet it and then in their head convince themselves thats enough to come out winning.
If you click confirm bet without in your head knowing youv investigated every angle possible and the outcome makes perfect sense in your head (even if in the end your wrong) then your doing it wrong.
Theres always a big factor of luck in anything to do with gambling, you have to eliminate as much of the luck as you can (taking emotion out often helps and trying to implement as much logic)
You made an interesting point in saying your often attracted to godolphin, yet its widespread news that they are a long long way behind coolmore, why stick with them? Because you side with one team over another and (like supporting a football team) find it hard to bet the other side (take the emotion out) and you probably could have picked up some winners from just that perspective alone
Im no expert though judge, but it does sound like you prefer “gambling” as opposed to trying to be “profitable” theres a huge difference.
I don’t mean “big” as a really massive win, just a normal sized big win on a single bet. Even the worst of punters occasionally get in to a position to win a decent amount, judge (although what “decent” means to the individual will obviously differ)… And – because of the way they bet – enjoy that victory more than any other type of gambler enjoy theirs.
When having a winner at the races, racing pals of mine often said from my facial expression they often couldn’t tell if I’d had the winner or not… And with all my racing pals the amount of visual enjoyment they got from having a good win pretty much always directly related to how many winners they were used to. With the one that had a winner most rarely absolutely ecstatic when it eventually came along! Many punters with no possibility of overall profit know that in order to get maximum buzz from a decent win they must first lose and lose frequently and/or lose heavily.
Value Is EverythingIf thinking “I don’t want to win” then imo that’s one step away from having a gambling problem.
Value Is EverythingDo you actually enjoy analysing horse racing……..
with respect I disagree. I don’t think there’s only one way, one approach that works. A lot of my better bets have been intuitive, just that these type of successes have tend to come on similar type of events- whereas betting on dreary handicaps and getting involved with maiden races I know nothing about, often have lead to my downfall. Overanalysing has often lead to my downfall as well- I understand that “underanalysing” can also be a problem as well, but when you suffer from paralysis by analysis, that your are more likely to be undone by the former. In this thread I’ve tried to talk about the psychological side of gambling- the type of horse you are attracted to when you first look at a race. I’m sure the more successful type of punter tends to be attracted to the right type- i doubt it has anything to do with intelligence or hard work, more of a “talent” thing. And no amount of staring at the race and analysing every piece of form is going to change that.
Clearly i understand that your approach tends to be different to mine ham- I get the impression that you are somewhat obsessed with horse racing and betting in general- fine that works for you but I don’t really think that’s the only approach- sad if it is.
As for your last statement, I disagree with that as well. I do want to be successful, just that perhaps I lack the discipline to do so- doing too many “throwaway bets”
Even the worst of punters occasionally get in to a position to win a decent amount, judge
I doubt that. A good friend of mine always seemed to lose huge amounts online but very rarely even had an opportunity to win a lot. Like if you bet heavily on long odds on shots trying to win a small amount, and when they win you go on tilt- you’ll never even have the chance to win big.
When having a winner at the races, racing pals of mine often said from my facial expression they often couldn’t tell if I’d had the winner or not…
That’s because your other 4 or 5 in the race lost……
But with the emotions of winning and losing, I can take it or leave it
I only bet small these days apart from long range targets which I build up a decent stake over time
When winning a big bet I feel good but when losing a big staked bet the ‘gutted’ feeling is far more worse then the emotion I get when winning. Hence why I bet small.
I still bet the occasional small stakes to win big bet on an acca etc but overall betting I lose due to in-discipline and lazy form study.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Like i say judge im no expert, you may be right, not a clue, i just do what works for me but it may be tedious for you which is absolutely fine
Obsessed is the wrong word, i generally sift a little daily until something catches my eye then i analyse and if it ticks my boxes ill go in, if it doesnt ill move on, it used to take me a hell of a lot longer than it does now for some reason and i generally week to week only focus on one race (sometimes more) when not a festival, if you cant stop betting on “throwaways” you should take a step back until you can keep it in check.
Dont disagree with what your saying, it may all be correct, but it sounds like your saying you lose alot, you know you lose alot, but because you dont have discipline/talent youll likely keep losing often, enjoy it without a bet until you hit a purple patch selecting without any £ on, its a sport to enjoy away from betting, although its never broadcasted that way.
There isn’t “only one way”, Judge; but all successful “ways” are achieved through analysis; whether that’s through studying form, systems or trends etc. You might think a lot of your “better bets have been intuitive”, but how are you judging those “better bets”? Even a poor way of betting will end up with some victories. Winning bets don’t necessarily have the correct thinking behind them; it’s whether overall profit is achieved that matters and your intuition is obviously not doing the trick.
“Overanalysing“, or “paralysis of analysis” is just bad/wrong analysis. Possible you’ve analysed a race correctly before a piece of wrong analysis makes you come to the wrong selection. However, that’s probably wishful thinking, often it’s more an excuse for not backing the winner or the whole thing being poor analysis. Can also be just a coincidence and doesn’t mean the analysis was particularly “over/paralysis“. If particular analysis stops a punter backing the winner of a race, does not mean the analysis is necessarily wrong…
…My own analysis of a race goes through several sub-sections: Trainer form, pace, horse in/out of form/injured/time of year, ground/distance/stamina/speed, temperament, jumping ability/draw etc… Every one of those parts affects my selection. So after any race if not having the winner as a main bet I could blame “overanalysing/paralysis of analysis“. Discarding the offending sub-section that stopped me picking the winner isn’t wise. Should I really discard the ground and not take any notice of the going in any future race? Of course not, one race doesn’t matter. It’s the overall profit/loss that matters.
Basically, it’s not over or paralysis it’s just punters not analysing properly.
Value Is EverythingI disagree quite strongly ginger. I think a lot of successful betting is intuitive. clearly you like to throw as many conundrums in as possible-too many, in my view- and that’s all good if it works for you. But please don’t poo-poo another approach. Like I said above, and clearly you didn’t bother to read it properly- I do quite well on big races, it’s just the shoddy inability to leave the rubbish stuff alone that tends to bring me down.
Anyway that was the old me
Like I say you have your approach but not everyone is the same- do you really believe that the only way to successful punting is to only follow your approach? with all this obsession about trainer form and backing half the field? if so you’re insane mate.
your arrogance is beyond belief at times. I regret my earlier praise of you, to be honest. you’re always having a dig.
There isn’t “only one way”, Judge; but all successful “ways” are achieved through analysis; whether that’s through studying form, systems or trends etc.
What part of that don’t you understand, Judge?
Of course there are many different ways of making a profit, not just mine.Value Is Everything
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