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Dispelling The Myths

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  • This topic has 9 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 9 years ago by Cav.
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  • #20838
    paulostermeyer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4623
    #387964
    Coggy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1245

    Very interesting Paul, and thanks. It will be interesting to see if the trend regarding reduced priced winners and unpredictability of results is maintained. Nice for a whip related article to be based on facts as opposed to sensationalism as well.

    #387972
    Pompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    Simon, please do not introduce REAL facts into this debate on the whip.

    That bloke, can’t remember his name, the one that always agrees with Cavs, will not be happy…. :mrgreen:

    #387974
    ricky lake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2358

    AH should you not be slagging off the queen or some other irrelevant crusade ………you probably know more about that than horse racing for sure !!!!

    you dont even irritate any more ……showing your tantrums at each opportunity ….

    #387985
    ricky lake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2358

    BTW, if you read Greg Wood’s article on Sunday 22nd , and digest the last 2 paragraphs , you might be inclined to disregard Simon’s article as just another brick in the wall ….

    Then agaim , you probably think he spouts rubbish as well ….

    #388012
    paulostermeyer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4623

    BTW, if you read Greg Wood’s article on Sunday 22nd , and digest the last 2 paragraphs , you might be inclined to disregard Simon’s article as just another brick in the wall ….

    Then agaim , you probably think he spouts rubbish as well ….

    Not at all, I have read Greg’s article (and I have a lot of time for Greg and most of what he writes I agree with)and it is simply his opinion and he is coming from an anti new whip rule stance.

    Simon’s article is based on statistical analysis and he is coming from a neutral stance.

    Ergo the two are not comparable.

    #388013
    freeradical
    Member
    • Total Posts 336

    The stats are interesting in part but they would have more meaning if 2009 and 2008 etc were taken into account as well. The article is based on the premise that Nov 2010 was a typical year and that results could be directly comparable.

    There is no reason why such an extended study cannot be undertaken. Give it to someone without a preconceived interest, include variables such comparable ground conditions, median horse rating (in non-handicaps), etc

    It would be a mistake to dismiss the results, but all that can be said at present is that there is a possible trend.

    #388014
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8820

    Another set of numbers that indicate the whip rules have not had the radical change on results/races that many predicted.

    And good to read something non-emotive, meaningful and factually based.

    #388025
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1981

    You often hear from the pro-whippers that racing has changed beyond recognition in some way that isn’t specified. Exactly how we don’t know, so how can you test their claims?

    It’s a similar situation to those emphasising the importance of jockeys’ strength in a finish (and there seems to be an overlap between pro-whippers and those who hold such views). Ask them what they’re talking about and they look at you as though you bark at the moon. Surely it’s self-evident? Er, no, not to me it isn’t.

    Maybe they know something the rest of us don’t.

    #388149
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4812

    Always enjoy Simons blog, usually thought provoking and well researched.

    Don’t agree with his percentage of field beaten method of analysis for this particular topic though. Use of the whip in the vast majority of races pertains to the closing stages of a race where the effect of field size is no longer a factor.

    The most interesting line in the piece is…

    "There could be something in the theory on all-weather, in other words."

    Personally I think the "did it win – yes or no?" binomial is relevant here for the very reason that the whip is generally used at the "did it win" section of the race.

    Interestingly enough, comparison of the impact values of horses who led and raced prominently on the all weather in Nov/Dec 2010 to 2011 reveals a big shift to leaders post whip with a subsequent huge impact on betting market returns according to field position in November and December. January to date has seen no improvement in the hold up animals lot although the betting market is adjusting, as you’d expect in these days of hyper efficiency.

    November and December – All Weather

    Led 2010…IV…

    1.24

    Led 2011…IV…

    1.62

    Prominent 2010…IV…

    1.23

    Prominent 2011…IV…

    1.26

    So perhaps it is possible to conclude (thus far) that the whip has a much bigger impact on the outcome of flat races (perhaps logical given the closer proximity of contenders at the business end of the race) and if these trends carry though to the flat season proper we will see fundamental shifts, particularly with so much at stake at the pattern end of the business.

    Cant comment too much on the predictability conclusions as I’m not sure how they’ve been calculated but generally speaking from an SP point of view races do become more predictable in November and December

    every year

    i.e a favorite/longshot bias exists on the exchanges. I can only put this down to inside knowledge of the fitness of returning National Hunt horses overcoming the formbook at this particular time of the year.

    As I’ve stated before my objections to the whip are ideological and purist and have no basis in race shape or gambling. Personally I’ve thought the broadcast media have been excellent, Boyce, Yeats, Cunningham, Willoughby and O’Ryan in particular.

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