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I have recently started collecting data to look for new systems, and noticed something rather odd. Take a look at this:
[attachment=0:3rn03n3g]system.png[/attachment:3rn03n3g]
This is a simple system based on data from the last nine days.
Yes, I appreciate that nine days’ worth of data doesn’t really count for much, but that’s not the point in this case. What is worrying is the fact the ‘system’ was so consistently bad during wed-sun last week, and all of a sudden mon-thu this week it is dramatically, but again consistently, good.
I know the new whip rules were re-amended
this weekend, but can that alone be responsible for this sudden change?My question is, therefore, has something happened this weekend that I have missed that might account for the oddness?
Any ideas, anyone?
Thx.
In my experience what you have observed is the norm.
A system can do no wrong for a period of time, (days, weeks or even months), then without warning can go completely the opposite way.
The reverse can happen but is not seen as often, as most people give up if the system consistently produces bad runs, so never get to see the turn around.
A very interesting observation from
shakeshuck
and I will say the graph loosely fits my own experience having had a trying couple of weeks that has turned round quite nicely this week.
I have put it down to the change from Flat to NH with trainers getting the last out of the flat and the new form over the jumps.
Maybe – maybe not
Billy's Outback Shack
That week was a freak of nature, it had to be as grotbags66 and Billion topped bobs comp and Billion even had a few winners in his systems.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Hi Guys,
In my experience what you have observed is the norm.
A system can do no wrong for a period of time, (days, weeks or even months), then without warning can go completely the opposite way.
The reverse can happen but is not seen as often, as most people give up if the system consistently produces bad runs, so never get to see the turn around.
I know what you mean, the turning point is usually just when you get some faith in the system and start putting money on it.
I’ve never seen such a sharp and clean turning point as this before, though; hence my concern and motivation to find a reason.
The point you make about system studiers not following a losing run is also interesting. It makes me wonder if there are systems that swing back and forth with any regularity that can be taken advantage of. For folks that just number crunch and don’t read graphs, these would just appear as break-even systems, and a possible swing approach would go unnoticed.
A very interesting observation from
shakeshuck
and I will say the graph loosely fits my own experience having had a trying couple of weeks that has turned round quite nicely this week.
I have put it down to the change from Flat to NH with trainers getting the last out of the flat and the new form over the jumps.
Maybe – maybe not
I did think about the possibility of the start of the NH season, but I couldn’t pinpoint a changeover date: as you say, the end of one seems to blend with the start of the other.
Unfortunately the program I wrote to capture data turned out to be buggy (surprise!
) and the data I have from a couple of months ago isn’t reliable. Because of this I can’t check to see if there was a similar direction change for the test system when the whip rules were implemented.That week was a freak of nature, it had to be as grotbags66 and Billion topped bobs comp and Billion even had a few winners in his systems.
Nice to see the guys on this forum get on well!
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