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Have Timeform attempted to compare Dream Ahead’s sectional times – approximate or otherwise – with those of other horses on the same day?
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Three Valleys, Raven’s Pass and Canford Cliffs all prove that wide-margin victories in ultimately uncompetitive races offer no assurances against top class opposition.
I’m firmly in the Dream Ahead camp.
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Dream Ahead has won 2 group 1’s, Frankel has been beating 2nd rate.
Dream Ahead for me, especially on softer ground.
An update on Native Khan suggests Dunlop would aim him only towards the Racing Post Trophy and pass on the Dewhurst Stakes. He’s due to decide on the matter in the next couple of days, in case he does remove Khan, it’s one less potential winner that could upset the score.
There are obviously three names to focus on, Frankel, Dream Ahead and Sammid, the latter having one of my favorite trainer jockey match up, Bin Suroor and Dettori, both of them present the highest win rate with 2YO.
This one is tough, with three potentials and a strong presence by O’brien who’s running a pack of four, and I’m just wondering if he’s hiding something up his sleeve. Sammid at the moment for me. However, he has never ran soft so in case the going changes, reconsidering on Dream or Frankel is inevitable.
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The way Timeform works you have to ask the question : Did they have a choice?
They are using at yardstick through horses like Approval who is a group winner.
The fact he couldn’t raise a gallop in the ground isn’t something they have taken into account to the fullest IMO.
One good thing that will come out of this is maybe when Frankel kicks Dream Ahead into touch he’ll be on amore realistic rating than he is now which is terrbly low for a wonderhorse who would beat Pegasus never mind that lot he meets on Saturday.
Hope you Dream Ahead fans are following this OK.
Dream Ahead is a class act not saying he’s not. I said so before he won last week and even said he’d win the way he did but this Frankel is a machine.
You want to waste your hard earned cash backing something to beat him because Timeform rate him higher be my guest but lose you will.
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I’ve always said Native Khan was a Racing Post horse since he picked up like a good ‘un with Fallon on board and in a normal year he’d be a strong fancy for next years Guineas.
The ground is very much a concern for Ed Dunlop and he said he’d run him here rather than wait only to find out Donnie comes up soft.
After hearing what Eddie Ahern had to say I still have serious doub’t about him running him in this.
Apparantly Eddie was riding work against Frankel and was aksed if he thought Native Khan could give him a race. He said he wouldn’t get within a hundred yards of Frankel which isn’t exactly I’d want to hear going into a race.
Many bubbles burst in racing but the more I see and hear about Frankel the more convinced I am he’s the real deal.
We shall soon know.
There’s a fair chance this race could provide another winner for the Timeform top-two rated followers.
Who else knew?
Many bubbles burst in racing but the more I see and hear about Frankel the more convinced I am he’s the real deal.
We shall soon know.
All we will know is that he is a super 2yo,the real deal comes when he has won a Guineas,Derby,King George and Arc! I went to Newmarket to see
Xaar
run away with the 97 Dewhurst and he burnt my fingers in the 2000gns,i thought
Three valleys
was the real deal and yet Milk it bloody Mick beat him in the Dewhurst! as you say bubbles burst at this game,those of us who know their horses know this is a big bubble thats going the same way,its just a matter of time! 5/2 for the Derby now is the most ridiculous price i have ever seen and thats with Corals and Paddy Power! TAPK"s a Wise old Wolf and isn"t following the Lemons,i mean Lemmings off the cliff with Fist leading! Again! You are like a cat with nine lives Fist.you must have used 8 of them up!
Can someone at Timeform clarify whether adjusting for sectionals is a widespread phenomenon?
I find it slightly worrying as I have seen no evidence that the horses Simon Rowlands identifies as ‘under-rated’, based on his sectional analysis, actually prove to be under-rated. In fact when I last looked at a decent sample of such horses he sent me they actually performed
worse
in their next few runs than a control group with similar conventional ratings.
Thanks, DJ.
I’d still have a question of consistency in this case. 7lbs is a big adjustment based on sectionals. I understand it could also go the other way as I believe it did with Harbinger (142 down to 140).
However other horses rated without the benefit of sectionals wont have had similar opportunity for a possible increase on the bare form figure based on optimal and actual finishing speed, which gives Frankel an unfair advantage in this case, imo.
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There are no real advantages to sectionals and are pretty pointless especially on the flat but all you should be looking at is the last 3 furlongs, all they tell you is how the race panned out and in truth you’re dealing in milly seconds rather than seconds which puts more emphasis of error especially with jockey tactics on the day and asking him to repeat the same ride again which is nigh on impossible so lets throw those out the window.
A lot of people confuse acceleration with stamina, infact i’d say 80% of those interested in speed do but the only question I’d have for Frankel is he hasn’t really been pressed mentally in a serious race yet.
At the end of the day a horse will in general achieve or nearly achieve his maximum of either a slow or fast pace, it is just natural that this happens so in truth everything tends to even its self out.
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Lets be honest now TAPK, you’re hardly the sharpest tool in the box but when it comes to racing knowledge you’re thoughts are hardly worthy of filling the back of a cigarette packet.
Fist has a strong case imo.
Lets be honest now TAPK, you’re hardly the sharpest tool in the box but when it comes to racing knowledge you’re thoughts are hardly worthy of filling the back of a cigarette packet.
My Goblet runneth over! No its not a sexual innuendo Mr W!
There are no real advantages to sectionals and are pretty pointless especially on the flat but all you should be looking at is the last 3 furlongs,
Ah thats what i have been doing wrong then! Geez 25 yrs of watching the whole race! I am a Dick!
all they tell you is how the race panned out and in truth you’re dealing in milly seconds rather than seconds which puts more emphasis of error especially with jockey tactics on the day and asking him to repeat the same ride again which is nigh on impossible so lets throw those out the window.
I know what i would throw out the window in a "milly second"!
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