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I think Detriot City has a major Champion Hurdle chance. On pounds per length his win at the weekend puts him within a few pounds of the best hurdlers around so he’s quite obviously in that sort of class.
He should be well suited by the Champion Hurdle. On normal festival ground he must go close.
Personally I’d want 4/1 about any horse getting to Cheltenham at this stage never mind winning there but if he goes there in good form I wouldn’t be wanting to lay him.
Forget the age thing, he doesn’t know how old he is. ;)
Quote: from davidjohnson on 5:58 pm on Nov. 13, 2006[br]RD, you start this thread by suggesting that Detroit City is a 165 horse, then back track and claim this is a ‘potential’ figure. Isn’t rating the form of horses on what they might do a futile exercise. <br>
No, I didn’t backtrack at all dj. DC has not yet achieved a 165 rating, so such speculation could only ever be based on the potential of what he has achieved so far. <br>As a single entity, the Greatwood victory is not worth any more than 152 IMO. BUT … we can be confident that he is value for 160+<br>Whether he is actually that good is another matter. It’s an unknown. I originally said that he is good. I don’t know if he can win a Champion Hurdle though. A champion hurdle winner is entitled to a rating of 167 – 170. As a 5yo, i’d say he is not going to achieve that. Rhinestone Cowboy was brutally exposed when he tried to achieve the same thing. The CH is run at such a fast pace that younger horses are often found wanting at the business end.
Rhinestone Cowboy and Detroit City are complete chalk and cheese. Ahead of his Champion bid, Rhinestone Cowboy had never come off the bridle, doing all of his winning on the bit, Detroit City has already shown he finds plenty for pressure. Rhinstone Cowboy didn’t have anything like the experience Detroit City has either.
I think that a fast pace exposes relatively slow horses, not young ones.
You have to scrap up that hill at Cheltenham. Classy as Rhinestone Cowboy was I never had him down as a tough bull of a horse. Detroit City on the other hand is granite like.
In Rhinestone Cowboy’s defence he ran an absolute cracker and was staying on well when he came back a year later under top weight in the Coral Cup. He’d probably have won given a competent ride too.
I would be surprised if Detroit City didnt meet one of the Meade horses in the Bula.
First question to ask someone who spouts a trend such as this is …why?
"Spouts"?
Nice bit of sneering, Clive.
Unless theres some logic, then its of no interest.
No reason why a 5 year old shouldnt be physically developed enough to win such a race
Is there a reason why a horse that hasn’t reached his physical peak would be good enough to beat the best mature hurdlers?
The last 70 5yos in the Ch hurdle have lost. Only one 6yo has won the champion chase.
Is there some connection between these 2 stats?
To me, there’s the suggestion that it would take a truly remarkable horse or a truly awful renewal for a 5yo to win the hurdle or a 6yo to win the chase.
Now, it could be that DC is that truly remarkable horse.
However, until he beats the best of the older horses in relevant conditions, I’ll conclude he’s going to be another young horse that’s going to lack the strength and experience to win on the big day.
But, if you want to regard my approach as " hocus pocus", it’s a free country.
Steve
To an old man Detroit City reminds me a lot of Persian War in both his method of racing and his achievements at this age. Persian War went on from the Triumph hurdle to win the Champion the next year at 5y0 and dominated from the front, or near the front , in all his races. Incidently, although a different type of horse, Night Nurse also won the champion hurdle at 5. Obviously you have to be a true champion to win at such an age but it would not suprise me if Detroit City did not prove to be a true champion. He looks as though he will be better in the Champion than he would in the Bula as both the trip and the course will better suit his running style.
Having burbled all that – 4/1 looks singularly unattractive at this stage although Brave Inca IMO is not an outstanding champion – he took too many defeats along the way to merit that description – and could just prove to be a moderate winner of a moderate year.
I would agree he is good — and probably about 160 just now – but 5/1 is a very skinny price for a hurdle race next March!
Quote: from davidjohnson on 6:12 pm on Nov. 13, 2006[br]4’s is short enough, but not as bad as 12’s on Iktitaf who has halved in price on the back of 2 facile wins that were little more than schooling exercises. We know no more about him than we did after his Punchestown run in the spring.<br>
There’s a good case for saying that Iktitaf was overpriced after Punchestown.
I cannot understand how DC is fav for the champion, IMO he will not win the Champion Hurdle, if he were mine I would be aiming him at the stayers. He beat a very average bunch of horses on Sunday, on tacky ground. He seems to have oodles of stamina and he ran the other horses into the ground because of this in the greatwood.
Come March on good ground horses with a better cruising speed and hurdling technique will put DC in his place.
JohnJ.
Steve
Apologies for the "spouts". Not a nice turn of phrase :)
Is there really that much physical development between 5 and 6? Not querying whether there is or not, just would be curious to know…
Certainly in DC’s case he looks pretty well developed already.
Quote: from clivex on 10:10 am on Nov. 14, 2006[br]Steve
Apologies for the "spouts". Not a nice turn of phrase :)
Is there really that much physical development between 5 and 6? Not querying whether there is or not, just would be curious to know…
Certainly in DC’s case he looks pretty well developed already.
By and large with National hunt types, the answer is a resounding yes. In fact Mouse Morris has stated a few weeks ago that he thought WOA had muscled up since last season and this didnt raise any eyebrows really. There are of course many other horses who seem to reach a level of maturity younger in terms of ability and physical development but this is by and large rare with stoutly bred types. Rooster Booster>> comes from a grand old national hunt family and surprised no breeding gurus that he improved with age. I havent studied DC so perhaps someone better informed can tell us where we are with him. Of course does that mean they show a similar improvement in ability??…that Im not so sure. Horses will often attain more stamina I suppose but may brush off some speed but certainly no hard and fast rules on any of this I would imagine. <br>
SHL
In Flat terms, Detroit City is likely recently to have reached full maturity – the wfa scale says as much (and in this instance there is no real evidence that it is wrong).
And Detroit City has, so far, essentially been a Flat horse: he is Flat bred and has run 9 of his 15 races on the level, winning 5 of them.
If he is physically mature, then surely he is physically mature. Period.
The issue where jumps is concerned then is really about whether he has the requisite experience. After 5 wins out of 6 I’d say he is getting there.
Of more help (just about) than stating that 5yos can’t win a Champion Hurdle, would be the contention that a horse with less than, say, 10 runs over timber is usually at a disadvantage in the race.
Perhaps someone would like to do some research on that?
Cheers SHL
Although 5 year olds have had a bad recent record race, were many going into the race with DC’s credentials?
Also, seem to recall some 5 year olds running quite well Bilboa being one.
But as you say, theres no straight line formula here, which is what makes it all the more fascinating :) <br>
<br>I’d agree it’s daft to say that a 5-y-old ‘cannot’ win the Champion Hurdle based on the trends, but fair enough to say that for whatever reason they ‘do not’ win it very often given the numbers that try.
But at least two came close enough to counter the ‘cannot’ argument. Ruling, still a novice at the time, was beaten less than two lengths by Morley Street in 1991 and he’d started off in bumpers, so had no flat background.
Then Oh So Risky was beaten half a length by Royal Gait in 1992, underlining the fact that a clear cut Triumph Hurdle winner is up to the job.
The example of Kribensis, beaten at 5 but a winner of the Champion at 6 is often quoted, but the race he lost was on good to soft and the one he won on good to firm. Also as a 5-y-old, he didn’t run between the Christmas Hurdle and Cheltenham and his connections seemed to learn from that, as he took in the Kingwell Hurdle as a 6-y-old.
Prior to Sunday, 4-y-olds were 0/40 in the Greatwood Hurdle, so Detroit City has already smashed existing trends three times – by doing the Cheltenham/Aintree double, by winning the Cesarewitch without a prep race and then by winning on Sunday.
So if he’s good enough, his age isn’t likely to stop him next March.
AP
In Flat terms, Detroit City is likely recently to have reached full maturity – the wfa scale says as much (and in this instance there is no real evidence that it is wrong).
However, does this simply equate to the jumps?
In the flat, 6 & 7yos tend to be better at carrying large weights (e.g. in amateur races). Would this suggest that the additional weight that’s used in NH gives an advantage to the older (6yo+) horses?
Then there’s the strength and weight to hit an obstacle and keep going …
So, I’d say it’s slightly different.
Of more help (just about) than stating that 5yos can’t win a Champion Hurdle,
Where did someone suggest that?
Right now, DC looks like he could be a true champion.
However, the number of actual true champions is far, far lower than the number of "potential true champions".
IMO, although DC has impressed to date, his price is based on a lot of "hope" and "possibility". And I don’t think that it includes the (real) disadvantage that 5yos face in the champion hurdle.
He could, as I have already said, be the quality of horse that could overcome this disadvantage and actually win it.
In which case, we should give extra credit to the achievement, because it would have been achieved despite the fact the horse hadn’t reached its full physical peak.
Steve
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