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You can’t fail to be impressed by this horse.  He has done everything asked of him and more.
He has slammed the opposition in his last five hurdle races.<br>He is the first horse to win the juvenille double at Cheltenham and Aintree for 27 years, and the triumph was run in a fast time, beating a decent sort in Fair Along.<br>He is the first 4 year old to win the Greatwood in something like forty attempts, and giving weight all around.
This is no ordinary 4 year old, and he will keep improving up until March, which you can’t say for most of his rivals.  5 year olds do win the Champion Hurdle, but they tend to be the greats, and this horse could be one of them.  Of course that could just be my ante-post bet at circa 14/1 talking :biggrin:
It’s difficult (or innacurrate) to describe the runner up as exposed.
NOt really sure anyone is crabbing Detroit City, moreso the general consensus is along the lines of impressive, looks a Champion Hurdle contender, 4/1 – err no thanks.
I think it is pointless giving Detriot City extra credit for being the first juvenile in 20 odd years to win at Cheltenham and Aintree. This was the just the second year the race has been run as a Grade 1. Made in Japan and Spectroscope both carried penalties when runner-up and emerged as the best horse at the weights at Aintree against Le Duc and Al Eile respectively.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 9:43 am on Nov. 13, 2006[br]I think it is pointless giving Detriot City extra credit for being the first juvenile in 20 odd years to win at Cheltenham and Aintree. This was the just the second year the race has been run as a Grade 1. Made in Japan and Spectroscope both carried penalties when runner-up and emerged as the best horse at the weights at Aintree against Le Duc and Al Eile respectively.
Fair point, but do you really think a 4lb penalty would have made a jot of difference that day? I don’t.
Where will he go next? There is no doubt he is very classy but its too early to make him a fav for the Champ Hurdle.
Of corse 4 lb extra wouldn’t have stopped Detroit City, but under the same race conditions he had, he wouldn’t have been the only horse to have won both races since Pollardstown.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 10:19 am on Nov. 13, 2006[br]Of corse 4 lb extra wouldn’t have stopped Detroit City, but under the same race conditions he had, he wouldn’t have been the only horse to have won both races since Pollardstown.
The conditions have changed, so you can look at it either way. If there hadn’t been a 4lb penalty for all of those years, then no he wouldn’t have been the first dual winner since Pollardstown. However, that 4lb penalty found out other Triumph winners, but it wouldn’t have stopped him strolling to a win.
Anyway, it’s a pointless argument, I was just trying to illustrate that he is no ordinary 4 year old, and could be the best we have seen for some time.
the one thing i would be worried about with DC is he isnt exactly quick, neat or accurate over his hurdles. could be a prob in the champ
The very reason I brought this topic up, regarding the ratings, was that fact that Lydia Hislop mentioned a 160 rating. I thought that was a little bit conservative, and in effect he was probably a couple of lbs better than that.<br>But, even if he was rated 165, a very liberal figure, he would still be struggling in the Champion …
Brave Inca 167<br>Macs Joy 166<br>Harchibald 165<br>Detroit City 160 – 165?
So where they get the 4/1 quote from astonishes me personally. They are looking for mug money if you ask me. The shrewdies will be waiting until after the Bula to see what he can achieve there, before taking a silly price for the festival.<br>My opinion is that the bookies are taking us for cretins.<br>If you saw a watch on eBay, described as "could be a real Rolex, but can’t be sure. Comes as seen, with no paperwork or box", would you buy it as a real Rolex?<br>I wouldn’t LOL
Now, if I could get a tasty price for the 2008 CH it would certainly be interesting ;)
RD
Dont quite get this. How can he be "struggling" in the CH if hes around 2-4lbs off the leading candidate?
Given that hes likely more likely to improve than the other contenders, then the price on offer looks ok.
Not that im backing him at 4’s though…
The idea that a 5yo can’t win a Champion Hurdle is laughable. You need a damn good one, ideally with a fair degree of experience, admittedly.
You need a horse like Detroit City, in fact, but there just haven’t been many of them in recent years.
Racing analysis is bedevilled with this hocus pocus that passes for "trends". Some of it has no more authenticity than relying on star signs.
Quote: from clivex on 5:14 pm on Nov. 13, 2006[br]RD
Don’t quite get this. How can he be "struggling" in the CH if hes around 2-4lbs off the leading candidate?
Given that hes likely more likely to improve than the other contenders, then the price on offer looks ok.
Not that im backing him at 4’s though…<br>
I’m not saying he can’t win the CH. I’m just saying that 4/1 doesn’t represent his chance. If DC is 4/1, a proven performer like Brave Inca has to be fav over Detroit City.<br>As Grasshopper has already stated, the 165 is a ‘potential’ figure. There is no guarantee that he can achieve that mark this year. I think that he is capable of achieving it, but not necessarily as a 5yo.
Racing analysis is bedevilled with this hocus pocus that passes for "trends". Some of it has no more authenticity than relying on star signs.
Totally agree
First question to ask someone who spouts a trend such as this is …why?
Unless theres some logic, then its of no interest.
No reason why a 5 year old shouldnt be physically developed enough to win such a race
RD. Yes 4/1 is about the price for actually getting to the race these days i think! :o
RD, you start this thread by suggesting that Detroit City is a 165 horse, then back track and claim this is a ‘potential’ figure. Isn’t rating the form of horses on what they might do a futile exercise.
As for your comment about wanting a tasty price on Detroit City for the 2008 Champion Hurdle, to continue your analogy, isn’t that just having to wait an extra 12 months for your watch, but with even fewer guarantees. Your seller might have gone out of business by the time it comes to ship it.;)
I like the use of trends to identify the types of horses that do well in particular races. It has served me particularily well at the festival the past couple of years. However I would not discount horses completely based on the trends, and whilst 5 year olds do not have a good record in the champion, if they are good enough there is no reason why one cannot win it.
Still think 4s is a bit short at the moment though. If he does a Rooster Booster in the Bula then he will be a worthy favourite.
Considering all the Irish horses are likely to miss the Bula, I cannot see what Detroit City can do in that race to enhance his claims.
4’s is short enough, but not as bad as 12’s on Iktitaf who has halved in price on the back of 2 facile wins that were little more than schooling exercises. We know no more about him than we did after his Punchestown run in the spring.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 6:12 pm on Nov. 13, 2006[br]Considering all the Irish horses are likely to miss the Bula, I cannot see what Detroit City can do in that race to enhance his claims.<br>
Then we’ll have to agree to disagree ;)
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