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I wonder will Kieren ride Seville in the Dante?
Thats an interesting thought Andy bearing in mind
Seville
has ran 3 times and had 3 different Jockeys on him to date,i have got it in my head Seamie Heffernen will ride him.It certainly seemed to me that Fallon being on Recital yesterday was all part of the horses education and Kieren is a master of that,i can certainly see him keeping the mount in The Derby itself.
Your timefigures have Native Khan as #1 on your list of Derby contenders? And Recital #2?
Yes, on this season’s 3yo figures to date, Zarkava.
Does not include the decent Racing Post Trophy time figures of Casamento and Seville.
Native Khan and Recital have improved their actual pure speed figures (which ignore WFA) from 2 to 3, as you would expect a maturing, physically stronger 3yo to do.
But it is not always guaranteed. eg St Nicholas Abbey whose close 6th in the Guineas and Ormonde Stks win do not yet eclipse the basic speed figure he achieved as a 2yo in the Racing Post Trophy.
Given their make-up and assuming all is right with them, it has to be very likely that Casamento and Seville will improve on their 2yo pure speed figures, just a matter of whether it will be enough to put them in the Derby picture.
Seems like Kieren Fallon shares my opinion above,ie. that Recital was dossing at the end and his job was to steer him away from the rail.He will be O’Brien’s Derby horse.Fallon will ride him and Whoever will ride the others.I trust Aidan will find a ride for Joseph.
I don’t doubt Recitals ability just that if he "dosses" in the Derby he’ll get beaten, unless the rest are poor.
My thoughts from another forum
before the race
:
He’ll win today. I’m looking at St Nics seasonal debut as inspiration for a marked improvement today. Also while Fame And Glory won and Nebula Storm is probably pretty decent, FAG didn’t run to his mark. He’s obviously not backable at 4/7 (was 5/4 opening yesterday) after his last race (defeat) but he ought to find the necessary improvement to take todays race.
Whether he’s win the Derby will probably rely on a good bit of ease in the ground at Epsom. I have no evidence but I suspect he won’t be fast enough for the Derby.
And
After the race
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That horse gets greener (more awkward is probably more accurate) the more he runs. Ears pinned back throughout, hanging, head carriage, etc. He quickened well at the bend to go past Regent Street. I’m inclined to believe that he was out in front too long but a horse as dizzy as that does not inspire confidence going into a Derby. The run was needed if just to educate him more – he seems slow on the uptake but clearly has ability. Whether he has enough of it, and whether he will use it when its needed is open to question.
I believe that is why they hired Fallon.
I hope he can work his magic then – I’m on at 25s
The way the horse ran it looks like he needs to be ridden with cover until the last possible moment so he is not in front too long.
If I was his trainer (and of course Aidan knows best!) I would try him with one of those Australian nosebands with the piece of rubber attached to the top of the bridle running down the face to the bit. They help exert a little poll pressure which might aid control and steering.
Other than that I would say either he is green and becomes overwhelmed when in front or he is a bit of a rogue and needs to be ridden tactically. Whichever it is I would be very surprised to see him him by a large margin, if he wins at all.
RECITAL THE ONE TO BEAT IN DERBY
Aidan O’Brien only employs his highly successful dual pacemaker policy with his very best horses. So the fact that he used it to ensure a strong early pace for RECITAL (41) in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial is a big clue that he rates the horse his top Derby prospect.
Sure enough Recital won the race. And he looked set to win impressively rounding the home turn because he was traveling so well.
As it turned out Recital once more ran green once he got to the lead. He put his head in the air and rolled towards the rail, actually making contact with it briefly. He was so green his jockey, Kieran Fallon, was unable to ride him out properly.
In the circumstances it was most impressive that Recital could still run a proper Group 1 class time by my estimates.
It was encouraging that Recital did not run as green as he had on his seasonal debut. Horses work their way out of such behaviour quite rapidly, so I’m sure Recital will improve once more in this regard when he tackles the Derby.
It’s not just my ratings that suggest Recital is the one to beat at Epsom. So far five Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winners have earned Racing Post ratings of 115 or more. Three of the five went on to win the Derby. The other two ran second and third. Recital earned a Racing Post rating of 118.
Nick keeping it simple, unusual!
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