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Derby Day Trading Game

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  • #3498
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8798

    OK – let’s give it a go.

    Simple rules –

    1. You have an imaginary 100 points<br>2. You must back or lay horses in the Derby market at betfair prices with the objective of ending with a profit as the gates open for the race (i.e. you must try to lock in a profit regardless of the race result).<br>3. If you back a horse and fail to lay it off before the race then you will be debited the value of that bet (e.g. 2 pt bet not laid off will count as -2 whether the horse wins or loses).<br>4. If you lay a horse and fail to close the bet by backing it later then you will be debited the amount you stand to lose on the race if the horse were to win, regardless of whether it wins or loses. (e.g. if you lay 2 pts at 4/1 and fail to back it later you will be debited 8 points for that trade)<br>5. You must place at least 5 trades<br>6. To make a ‘trade’ just post the bet on this topic stipulating whether backing or laying, the current price on bf at the time you post (please be honest people!) and the size of the bet. I will monitor people’s trades and post regular updates of people’s portfolio on the race.

    So, for example. You back Horatio Nelson 10 points at 6.0 and then lay 5 points off at 3.0 and 5 points at 2.5.  You would score 15+17.5 = 32.5 points.

    Hope that’s straightforward.

    Ok – GO FOR IT!

    #85107
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Corm

    I take it that, if you lay a horse, but don’t back it back and that horse doesn’t run, you score that bet as though the horse loses?

    Steve

    #85108
    IRSHEYEZ
    Member
    • Total Posts 223

    Back Judge (90’s) 10 Points<br>Back King In Waiting (36’s) 10 Points<br>Back Heliostatic (48’s) 10 Points<br>Back Galactic Star (65’s) 10 Points <br>Back Leningrad (60’s) 10 Points<br>Back Corum (50’s) 10 Points

    (Edited by IRSHEYEZ at 1:45 am on Mar. 31, 2006)<br>

    (Edited by IRSHEYEZ at 1:48 am on Mar. 31, 2006)

    #85109
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    I’ll start off with

    Back: Septimus: 30pts @ 25<br>Back: Shahin: 10pts @ 42

    How long do I have until I have to reach 5 trades?

    Steve

    #85110
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8798

    Steve – you have until off time of the race to reach 5 trades.

    Yes – if you lay but have not backed one and it is non-runner you do score those points. Likewise if you back but don’t lay off you lose those points if non-runner.

    #85111
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    10pts LAY George Washington @ 27<br>20pts LAY Horatio Nelson @ 6.4<br>30pts back Sir Percy @ 15.5pts<br>10pts back Heliostatic @ 48<br>10pts back Rampallion @ 34

    #85112
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    I’m sorry if I’m sounding like the thickest kid in the class, but I have another question.

    Imagine I laid Horatio Nelson for 10 points at 6.4.

    Then AO’B said that the horse wasn’t going to the Derby (but he was still left in the entries – which is normal practice for Ballydoyle).

    The price then goes out to 1000 on betfair.

    If I then back the horse back at 1000, would I score

    10 pts * (1000-6.4) = 9,936 points?

    If so, it seems the only way to win this comp is to lay the horses at the front of the betting.

    Steve

    #85113
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8798

    Interesting question steve!

    It’s not really the spirit of the thing so I’ll have a think about that one and see if there is a way we can come up with a ruling to get around it.

    #85114
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    20 point lay George Washington (20)<br>10 points back Judge (130)<br>10 points back Rulers Gold (150)<br>10 points back El Fuego (110)<br>20 points back City of Troy (26)<br>20 points back Sir Percy (16)<br>

    #85115
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8798

    I think that i may have a solution for Steve’s conundrum.

    Basically if, as in Steve’s scenario, you laid the fav at 6 and then, announced a non-runner, you backed it at 1000, then under the original rules you would have stood to gain a huge points score.

    However, the ‘back’ part of your trade obviously has no chance of winning.

    To get over this anomaly how about this.<br>If you lay a horse and, before off-time, it is declared a non-runner, you score the lay part of your bet but lose the back part. This would be regardless of whether you’d had time to back or lay the other way.

    For example –

    You lay Horatio Nelson 2 points at 6.<br>It is announced a non-runner and you back it 2 points at 1000.<br>But… as it is eventually declared a non-runner prior to post-time you win the lay part of the trade (2 points) but lose the back part (2 points). If you hadn’t backed it at 1,000 you would simply win the lay part (2 points). If you had backed it only then you would lose the 2 points.

    In other words, this avoids the situation proposed by Steve where a lay at a short price and a back at a hugfe price after a non-runner is announced means that, by a quirk of the rules, someone would be able to rack up a huge score.

    I think this is consistent with the spirit of the competition, which is to trade your way into a profitable position prior to the off time of the Derby.

    Does that A) make sense and B) sound fair?

    #85116
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    Just to warn everybody that there is a 2nd closing stage for the Derby on April 5th.  It costs 8,000 pounds but is usually quite popular and I’d expect to see a few more added to the list.

    Betfair don’t mention this date in their blurb.

    #85117
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    I’d like to lay Judge to half my original investment (ie 5 points) at 80s.<br>

    #85118
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Does that A) make sense and B) sound fair?

    Yes and yes.

    #85119
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8798

    I’ll start by backing Sir Percy 20 points at 15 and also backing Grand Criterium winner Linda’s Lad 10 points at 60.

    Sir Percy is, if you’ll pardon the phraseology, worth a poke at 15. While he may have been morally second best to Horation Nelson  in the Dewhurst but he ran very well and looks the type to make up into a good three year old. Has class, will stay and likely to shorten dramatically if giving a good showing first time out.

    Lindas Lad was winner of the ten furlong Grand Criterium over 10 furlongs on poor ground last back end. I wouldn’t normally get excited over a Fabre Derby possible at this stage but connections stated after the Gr 1 win that the Derby would be the aim and if they do pursue that plan then we will be able to lay the 60 off to good effect.

    #85120
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8798

    I’d like to now lay off my 20 points on Sir Percy at the current odds of 7.6.

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