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Derby Antepost – What's the crack?!

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  • #6252
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    I know we’re in the middle of the NH season but;

    Thewayyouare – Great Pedigree – 5 wins from 6 culminating in a G1 win at Saint Cloud, trained by Fabre and owned by Mulryan (So he may well fancy the derby) Price 18/1

    Ibn Khaldun – Won 4 from 5 culminating in a win in the Racing Post Trophy – Which has produced several recent winners and Dettori has actually won the Derby now! Price 14/1

    So how is Washington Irving – A once raced AP O’Brien maiden who plugged on for 4th in a curragh maiden a meagre 15/1!!!

    I must be missing something… Anyone help?!

    Incidentally, there’s an unraced cheveley park fasliyev colt in training with Chappel Hyam trading at 40’s..

    #135180
    yorkshirepudding
    Member
    • Total Posts 608

    Ibn Khaldun is the love child of two top two yearolds who were smart miler later on, i doubt he will get a mile and a half in a horse box, Seeking the Gold was a nine furlong horse and most of his lot ten too get ten furlongs, eleven with a strong wind behind them. If memory serves Dubai Destination is out of an Alleged mare, but he never ran beyond mile, with Gossamer beng a miler i think this colt will be a ten fulong horse at best, french derby not epsom…..

    #135182
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Might be worth checking out to see who the Montjeu half-brother to the Fasliyev colt is to see why he’s being quoted. Agree with the previous poster that Ibn Khaldun has absolutely no chance of getting the trip in the Derby.

    #135190
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208
    #135208
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    I’m betting Kauto Star in the Derby at least I’ll get my stake back, which is more than you lot will get if you try picking the winner now :lol:

    #135213
    Peter Poston’s Ghost
    Participant
    • Total Posts 548

    I like to wait for the day then look at which horses are stoutly bred (Montjeu, Galileo are current fav. sires for this race) open for improvement and perhaps overlooked in the betting. Any qualifiers I then back E/W at best price and best place %age.

    Anybody got a view on Twice Over?

    Having Observatory as a sire doesn’t fill me with confidence about him, but it would be superb if Henry completes his comeback with another Derby win. :D

    #135218
    ClintM
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Seems very odd, doesn’t it ? It is also very odd – and a fact – that many horses run contrary to pedigree influences.

    Ibn Khaldun thoroughly stayed a mile at two – his RP Trophy win was strong as a time performance – and races as if (a far more reliable guide than lineage) middle distances will suit.

    #135242
    Venusian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1665

    Much as I would like to see Henry Cecil win another Derby, Twice Over may struggle to get 10f, never mind 12f.

    And the same can be said about Ibn Khaldun.

    Normally, for a 10f horse to win the Derby it’s either a bad year (Benny The Dip), or when the best horse doesn’t run (Sir Ivor, with Vaguely Noble not entered).

    #135257
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    seriously speaking I find the Derby one of the toughest races to pick the winner of….I would have thought a good guide is to eliminate the winter favourite as they win about 1 in 12……….wait until the trials and back your fancy for the Derby the day before he runs in one of them……….at least if he wins you’ve got a decent price and may even have the luxury of picking up a bit of place money.

    Breeding has a way of making a fool out of people and until 2 year olds run again you have no idea if they have trained on….which is the most important issues….Huge gamble at this stage of the game and one I wouldn’t take even with the bookies money. I don’t particularly like to gamble on the flat anyway, way too many good horses hiding in the shadows for me……..

    #135261
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Having already won the Zetland, I think it’s fair to suggest Twice Over already gets 10f. I think there’s enough stamina on the dam side to have hope of getting 12f, though I only like backing those that are sure to stay, nay improve for the step up to 12f in the Derby.

    #135271
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    Interestingly, only eight Derby winners (please correct me if I’m wrong) in the last twenty years have won again over that distance, and more over, horses who have previously won at a mile or a mile and a quarter previous to the Derby, are the ones most likely to win the big race.

    Of the three best Derby winners ever (don’t argue :lol: ) Sea Bird, Nijinsky and Mill Reef, only Sea Bird had run and won beyond a mile ( 10f ), although all three did follow up at the distance.

    In recent years, the Dante has proved a decent yardstick.

    My advice – Best to wait until all the trials have been run.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #135276
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    I’ve backed Twice Over at big odds after his first run but I agree there is a question mark over his stamina. It was encouraging in that regard, however, to see him win the Zetland.

    The other one I particularly like is Confront whose Ascot win was achieved in very taking style.

    #135452
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    The last three Derbies were won by horses that won a Group One at two and were well-fancied for the race during the winter.

    #135471
    Ugly Mare
    Member
    • Total Posts 1294

    I go for Twice Over at the moment.

    Of the top 9 in the betting his Dosage Index and Centre of Distribution is closest to the winning average of the past 25 years, i.e. DI 1.36 CD 0.46 – ideal.

    dosage [yawn!]…lol – the appliance of science :lol:

    #135549
    yorkshirepudding
    Member
    • Total Posts 608

    The americans bang on about dosage on the TC trail every year, most of the colts end up injured during the buildup or stay abot as far an athisst in a reilgous convention.

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