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Consider is Hawk Wing’s CV read as follows at the end of the season:-
2000G – 2nd<br>Derby – 2nd<br>July Cup – 1st<br>St Leger – 1st
What price the JC/Leger double ?<br>Has it even been attempted before ?
If anyone can afford such an outrageous attempt then it’s Coolmore. If it doesn’t work out, then HW can always mop up the 8-10f races next year.
OH please Escorial!!!! Hawk Wing has’nt produced it on the track yet???? Broke the all age 7 furlong record at the Curragh on his way to winning the Group1 National Stakes. The offical handicapper(who I assume has the same form book as yourself) rated him higher to ROG in the Guineas. It was clear to the whole world(bar yourself it seems) that Hawk Wing was clearly the superior horse. Good a horse as ROG is he is’nt in the same league as Hawk Wing.<br> Hawk Wing had absolutely EVERYTHING against him yesterday yet he still ran, as you say it,the best 12F horse in the race, to 2 lenghts. That is no disgrace. I point back to Hawk Wing’s debut:<br>"A three-way photo-finish saw newcomer HAWK WING justify his short price but only after he became involved in a dour battle inside the final furlong. A big colt, who showed his inexperience before stretching out in the closing stages, Hawk Wing found just enough to snatch the verdict close home".Yes it is only a debut race and not a particularly strong one(although a listed winner has come from the race) but the word "bottler" and "dour battle" dont usually go together.His next race against ROG showed him really get his head down in the closing stages to stay on well to take second.<br> While you say it is only a hunch that the horse may be soft you really have no evidence. When this horse gets his conditions(in the Eclipse possibly) he will leave everything including Sakhee trailing in his wake.
I think I would have to agree with escorial here, though we all know Hawk Wing is an extremely talented horse, at this stage in his career, he has lost more races than he has won. I don’t think it is a formality that he would beat Sakhee in the eclipse and although there were mitigating circumstances for both defeats this season, there is only so many times You can say he’s a guaranteed winner next time out.
Based on his homework Hawk Wing would leave Galileo standing and you know how highly I thought of that horse.<br> Form book also said Dancing Brave was the second best horse in his Derby……………you’d have to be blind to believe that….no offence. Formbook does’nt come into the equation of the 2000 Guineas. An absolute farce of a race. If you believe Hawk Wing and ROG were racing on level terms that race your fooling yourself.Taking that into account(which the offical handicapper did) it can is clear who is the superior horse.<br> You refer to Naheef and Sholokov to dismiss HW lowering of the track record. I would argue they were indeed very good two year olds. But look at them they are tiny.No scope for growth which HW had. He was always going to leave 2 year old form behind.They simply have’nt trained on…………thats not the first time Loder has had that problem.<br> Anyway I will give up because from past experience I know I am talking to a wall!!! We’ll just have to wait and see.
Truth is Escorial that he has’nt left his runs on the gallops. His run yesterday was truely exceptional. Name me one thing the horse had in its favour yesterday……………yet he still pushed a top class horse like High Chaparral the whole way. The things this horse is going to do back down in trip on faster ground will not only leave the opposition gasping but the on lookers too.Bring on Sakhee!
Oracle, I’m not sure. Just had a look at Coral’s website and there’s no mention of the BC Classic in the ante-post section. You’d better give them a call. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve cut him, mind.
prince regent, I agree it’s entirely logical to expect Rock Of Gibraltar to be campaigned over 8f, Hawk Wing over 10f and High Chaparral over 12f for the rest of the season.
But with Coolmore’s drive to prove the speed of their stallions, I’d be a little surprised if it all panned out on these lines. If Aidan O’Brien can refer to Hawk Wing as a July Cup horse, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t tried again over less than 10f before his retirement. And they may just be tempted to go for a 10f race with High Chaparral.
I got a bit animated last year, after the Irish Derby, when they campaigned Galileo over a trip short of his best. (I also felt Godolphin got it wrong with Fantastic Light and Sakhee in the Breeders’ Cup.) If it’s true that Hawk Wing’s optimum trip is 10f, I’d be mildly upset to see him keep losing races at shorter/longer trips – although if he won in these circumstances it would mark him out as a remarkably versatile champion.
<br>About Hawk Wing’s bottle…Escorial has said that it’s a hunch. I had a similar feeling but of course the ground was a possible problem for him too.
Aidan, Hawk Wing did not have everything against him in the Derby. The ground was an unknown and the distance of the race was the other problem. The draw? That didn’t inconveniance the horse at all and the same goes for the track. Hawk Wing had Kinane riding too, surely not a negative.
Hawk Wing certainly looks liked he’d have won the 2000 Guineas but for being on the wrong side. We’ll never know for certain but it’s 99% likely HW would have won. The form book though has him a neck behind ROG and rating Hawk Wing higher than ROG means guessing by how many lengths Hawk Wing would have won by and that’s not easy to do.
Postmark gave Hawk Wing a mark of 127 and ROG 121…that’s 6lbs difference, which is about 3 lengths over 1 mile.
This is guesswork. Rock Of Gibraltar is the 2000 Guineas winner of 2002 yet the handicapper has Hawk Wing as the winner…by 3 lengths.
Whilst i feel Hawk Wing would have won, it is not 100% certain (nothing is in racing) and i can well understand why someone would back ROG over Hawk Wing if they ever meet again over 1 mile.
Just read your post Sal and i have to admit it made me laugh nice one mate, no offence taken we all need to have a laugh now and again.
Escorial, much as it pains me to agree with you, i think that HW’s performance is slightly overrated. The alst time i looked at the race- from the overhead angle- RoG was about 2 lengths ahead of HW when ROG quickened. Redback was well clear of aramram and naheef but HW was not as far back in his group – a length behind the leaders tucked in, than ROG was in his group. Fifth or sixth.
HW ate up the ground in the final furlong like a very good horse, which he undoubtedly is, and i would have no doubt that he would have been better suited to chasing a target like ROG. I would be confident of him beating ROG in a ermatch over any distance.
I dont agree about the bottle. He just was running on empty in the final furlong and a half in the Derby. He did stay but HC picked up again when HW came to him. Sign of a very good horse.
HW broke the all aged 7f record at the curagh as a 2yo. Impressive.
Well, whether or not you agree with Escorial’s hunch (and for the time being I’m giving Hawk Wing the benefit of the doubt), the debate seems set to continue…
…because in tomorrow’s Racing Post, the excellent Tony Morris is set to make the following breeding point: "The record shows that Woodman’s progeny tend to do well what comes easily to them, and to fall short when the demands become tough. It may well be that Hawk Wing provides the prime example."
Perhaps winning Gp1 races over, say, 10f will come easily to Hawk Wing. Or perhaps the demands of a battle will prove too tough. Time will tell. <br>
<br>cant say i can agree with esc about hw lack of bottle neither horse was pushed right out and why should they be as they were stable mates no need to beat the second to get a little closer. it was stamina and common sense rather than a lack of bottle that cost hw the race he was not suited by either the ground or the trip.
cant say i am unhappy witht the result my 10/1 voucher on high chapperrall was a good end to the week for me
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Fascinating thread
Escorial – Was also going to mention Tony Morris’s piece – are Woodman progeny lacking heart?
What do you guys think?
Songsheet raised this question on the other forum a couple of days ago in the thread Is he soft?
It is well known that Woodman’s can be riddled with problems, whether this is the same as being "soft" is a moot point. Soft is often used as an umbrella term when something more specific stops them. With Bosra Sham it was her hooves, with other Woodman’s it can be their breathing, hence the head going up.
Woodman was only a Group 3 winner himself in Ireland but a brilliant albeit erratic sire. But this is much to do with the scattergun approach they have taken with him.
But in truth the whole breed is riddled with such weaknesses and it is the one with the most talent that is also free of specific ailments to stop them on the day that triumph.
The quote from Morris is well rehearsed. He is now looking for a convenient horse to hang on that. He has chosen Hawk Wing, but he is very far from the prime example. Bosra Sham and a host of other Woodman’s are much better examples.
Hawk Wing was not beaten because he throws in the towel he was beaten because he was running at the wrong trip, on the wrong going, on the wrong course.
Willoughby says in yesterday’s Post:
"horses have to go through the pain barrier to subdue talented opposition. It hurts them all the more when like Hawk Wing in the Derby, they are just not up to the job".
Willoughby fears they may have ruined the horse. I hope as much as his connections no doubt do that he is not right.<br>
It was another poor decision by the yard to run Johannesburg at 10f in the KYD. He will be much better suited by the 6½f in the July Cup.
Fair enough Escorial. Morris seems to have the same hunch (although I get with him it’s just something to say). He calls HW a typical Woodman in today’s paper, although he said he was not a typical Woodman two weeks ago.
I on the other hand have seen no evidence whatsoever that HW ducks a fight, as I am sure he will prove when returned to 8-10 furlongs.
It was simply his class that got him there in the Derby. As Willoughby said yesterday, the horse had clearly reached his limits a clear two furlongs out and was never going to get by HC who had everything in his favour in relation to going and trip.
I just hope his spirit hasn’t been broken by being asked to do the impossible.
So I think Willoughby and I are right and you and Morris wrong (on this occasion).<br>
(Edited by Steve M at 7:27 pm on June 11, 2002)
A fascinating piece by Tony Morris today, although I could have done with some more examples of Woodmans folding in a battle, other than the sire himself.
Apart from the ante post voucher for the Breeders’ Cup Classic already in the locker, I am never likely to back Hawk Wing throughout the rest of his career.  This has nothing to do with any doubts about his resolution; it’s simply due to the fact that he is never likely to go off any where near the sort of price I expect to punt at.
I also read James Willoughby’s piece yesterday, and agreed with just about everything he said.  He seems to me a really shrewd analyst and I can’t for the life of me understand why the Post don’t use more of his work on pace and sectionals. ÂÂÂ
It strikes me that Willoughby, if given the opportunity, would also run a successful tipping column.  As well as being on top of the form (albeit from his "pace" perspective), he also appreciates how important it is for successful punters to "think independently and bet creatively" – being able to "see past the obvious", as he put it in one of his columns last week.    ÂÂÂ
(Edited by remittance man at 9:34 pm on June 11, 2002)
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