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In the last 5 years 75 of the offspring of woodman have run over 12f and 5 of these have won so wil Hawk Wing stay personaly i dont think it will and at the price i certainly wouldn’t back it.
Dosage identified the first, third, fourth and fifth as those most likely to suceed at 12f.
The formbook identified Hawk Wing, Bandari and High Chaparral as the three best.
So on balance I’d say Dosage has it as far as the Derby is concerned. The Dosage identified the winner, whereas the formbook gave the runner up.
Escorial,
I had the unfortunately ill-fated COSHOCTON in the top half (admittedly just) of my dosage-based figures.
From looking at his style of racing and the strength of his finish in previous events, I estimated that he was one of the four best stayers, likely to stay around 11 furlongs. This was probably about right, although we’ll never be sure now.
In terms of the form he had shown, I placed him well down the list, with only two runners behind him. I used a ranking system based on the highest two topspeed figures each horse had recorded.
(Although this has its own problems, I prefer using this type of method to relying on collateral form, which relies on other horses running to the same level of form each time they appear, and this is rarely the case – conditions vary and horses are inconsistent and tempramental. The sad mathmatician within me prefers a computer-calculated, time-based form measurement with minimal human interference.)
So in my analysis, COSHOCTON’s performance would have been more notable for being an improvement in form than for showing unpredicted or unlikely stamina.
I guess this shows how we all prioritise different factors and guidelines in unique ways, with each interpretation taking a slightly different angle on facts and opinions available. It’s what makes a forum like this so much fun!
On a slightly different point, I think too many people assumed that Bandari had proved his stamina by his win in the Lingfield Derby Trial. I think anyone would be hard pushed to say that there were any other top-quality horses in the field, and he had the race won with two furlongs to go. Thus, from the nine furlong pole he was put under no pressure and was asked to do nothing other than keep going. I would be happy to accept that, on this performance, he could show decent form over a distance close to 10 furlongs. I would not, however, assume that his stamina is proven over 12 furlongs plus, and would look for further racecourse evidence.
(Edited by non vintage at 8:36 pm on June 8, 2002)<br>
(Edited by non vintage at 8:37 pm on June 8, 2002)
Firstly, Coshocton’s death was terrible. I’ve no idea why the horse died or what he looked like in the paddock but i’d like to see a full investigation of every racehorse death and the findings made public. It was sad to see Coshocton die, along with any racehorse. It’s always worth remembering that if we didn’t have the horse, we wouldn’t have the race.
Escorial, High Chaparral had lots in his favour today and took full advantage. A very nice horse. Hawk Wing didn’t have so much in his favour and ran well…didn’t seem to last 12f as well as the winner. A little troubled by Hawk Wing…his head was arkward, either because he didn’t enjoy the ground or another reason. He didn’t go by High Chaparral, either because he didn’t stay 12f as well as the winner or because he was outbattled. If he wins over 10f then all will be well but if he gets beaten in a close finish again then i’ll be more than a little troubled. I think he deserves another chance right now.
Bandari: his Lingfield form was poor but he should have run closer to Moon Ballad than he did. Bandari didn’t run to form today, but he’d not have been close to the front two if he did, he’d have been around fourth by my reckoning.
Finally, i want to agree with you on the Ballydoyle/Godolphin thing. It’s an argument i’ve been having with people for ages and today proved how British racing is struggling.
DERBY RESULT:
1st – Ballydoyle<br>2nd – Ballydoyle<br>3rd – Godolphin
Frustrating stuff and it’s hard to see it changing soon.
Escorial,
I’m not sure about Hawk Wing being a bottler. It definitely looked a bit like that today but I think we were looking at a tired horse running on empty – he wants 10, maybe 10.5 furlongs and no more, and I thought he actually kept on quite well considering.
I still wouldn’t rush to back him, and High Chaparral would appear to be a stayer through and through. It is quite likely that, in order to increase his stud value, they will try to get a Group 1 win into him over 10 furlongs, and I would definitely oppose him over that trip!
<br>Just a hunch for me too Esc, if he wins over 10f next time – possibly in the Eclipse according to Clare Balding – then he’ll have proven my hunch wrong.
Right now though, i’m not sure. Hawk Wing was going quite well, was then ridden to get on terms with High Chaparral and then dropped back. My hunch is that Hawk Wing was outbattled rather than outstayed…but that will only become clear when Hawk Wing runs over 10f, which should be a good distance for him.
Yes…the 2000 Guineas winner this season…Ballydoyle, 1000? Godolphin. The Guineas didn’t go to either team last season – Godolphin came close – so the two set ups are either getting stronger of the rest getting weaker. Who won the Derby and Oaks last year? Ballydoyle, no stunners there!
I agree, the domination of the two teams is boring and i think harms the competitive nature of the sport. Let’s hope Godolphin don’t branch out to National Hunt!
They were going to for a second about two years ago, so I heard Rob.
Thank **** they changed their minds.
Istabraq was a BallyD horse but he wasn’t one of a cavalry designed to pacemake, strategize, overpower and scare off the opposition.
Frankly, when I got into racing about four/five years back, I loved flat as much as jumps.
Now I really, really do not, and it’s not a coincidence.
J-Burg – 7f and under (plus releasing his own album)<br>Rock of Gibralter – miler<br>Hawk – 10f<br>High Chap – 1m4 plus<br>Milan older races middle distances end of year.
More of the same on the horizon….yawn.
Why the yawn Zoz, I would prefer to see a top class horse like the ones mentioned win races comfortably rarther than tighter finishes in classics but won by very average horses, ballydoyle have set the standard, it is up to everyone else to reach their level.
I don’t suppose we can be sure, but my view at this stage would be that Hawk Wing was more outstayed than outbattled. I think there are strong grounds in support of this theory.
Reminded me a bit of the King George last year when Fantastic Light came to Galileo and then ran out of petrol. Except that FL (who was running on his favoured fast ground) didn’t carry his head like HW did today…
Let’s hope Hawk Wing gets a proper battle over 10f and we’ll all find out.
For stud purposes I too suspect Ballydoyle would want to get a 10f G1 into High Chap – and he may well be up to it depending on the quality of the opposition, perhaps on soft ground. But like Galileo, he’s surely better over 12f?
And who knows, they may want to get a G1 win for Hawk Wing over a mile (they even talked about this for Galileo at one point last year). But I’d be surprised if he went up against Rock Of Gibraltar again.
Anyone out there care to predict the programmes for Rock Of Gibraltar, Hawk Wing and High Chaparral for the rest of the season??? (HC’s programme may depend to some extent on whether Milan comes back to the track, although I somehow doubt it.)
Over 10-12f Act One, Sulamani, High Chap and Hawk Wing appear to stand head and shoulders above the rest of their generation. Looking forward to seeing how they get on against each other (if it happens) and their elders. Sulamani v High Chap over 12f and Act One v Hawk Wing over 10f would be worth watching. <br>
Amongst all this slagging of the Ballydoyle/Godolphin domination (ok, I agree, much nicer to see the little guys win more often) just stop and think for a sec.
Take out the O’Brien and Godolphin horses from the Derby and we would currently be praising our new Derby winner Jelani.  Sure, would be a great result for small owner/breeders (v. nice people apparantly) – but I think I would rather see two potentially very good horses in HC and HW fighting it out, no matter who they were owned by.
Coolmore and Godolphin have made the biggest investments in British and Irish racing – and they get their rewards for it.  I dislike their more questionable policies too (retiring early, hoovering up promising types with fat cheques), but I think British and Irish racing would struggle to claim ‘best racing in the world’ status without them.
At least this year there has been more competition between the two major players.  And well done to the Niarchos family, Gerald Leigh and Khalid Abdulla for their three classic victories so far this year – proving that the supposed monopoly on good horses can be exaggerated.
:wave:
For me there is no doubt that Hawk Wing didn’t get the distance i agree with a post above saying it was his class that got him so near,they did finish well clear of the rest of the field so you have to hand it to High Chapparal,regards the big two dominating if it carries on like this i have no doubt it will turn people away from the sport ,yes it is good to see such top class horses but it will eventually become boring it is getting to the point now where you are having to decide which stablemate is going to win a race with A O’Brien and Godolphin sweeping everything before them as i say if this continues the excitement will soon wear off.
As a scottish football fan, I thought you would have found dominence by two rivals to be reassuringly familiar…. :biggrin:
No offence mate.
Funny how Act One is’nt described as a "bottler" even though he came there cruising to win the French Derby?I see no difference with Hawk Wing…….it’s just the way he carries his head that off sets people. Simeon is a recent example………he is as far from ungenuine as you can get.King Of Kings is another.<br> Hawk Wing was set a huge task yesterday,trip,ground,draw and track all against him. The simple fact is when he gets the trip,ground,draw and track in his favour they wont get him off the bloody bridle to see is he genuine or not……….which I think his debut as a two year old showed he is and indeed his Guineas run.Ironic how some questioned High Chaparral’s resolve after his trial win.
It was obvious yesterday that Hawk Wing hated the ground as his awkward head carriage demonstrated. He came with around two furlongs to run and cruised along side High Chaparral only to be able not to quicken effectively in the ground and the fact that his stamina was running out. The fact that Hawk Wing still went off favourite yesterday despite everything conspiring against him can only show what regard he is held in and the ability he posseses. I have no doubt that if the ground would have been good to firm or firm yesterday Hawk Wing would have won. Not only because it would have suited him better but it would have also inconvienced High Chaparral who looks to have stamina in abudance and could probably win the Leger.
As for future targets and races, Hawk Wing looks a natural for 10f races. his blistering acceleration on fast ground will see him very hard to beat. As for the question of wheter he’s a ‘bottler’ there’s no reason to suggest that in my opinion as he clearly lost for lack of stamina and not lack of trying. Act One also looks a good horse but he would have to improve in my opinion to get within 2l of Hawk Wing at 10F on fastish ground. I think Hawk Wing will now be aimed at the breeders cup classic at the end of the year and judging by War Emblems poor showing last night they have no superstars at te moment so Hawk Wing should have every chance. Before then though i think he’ll go to the eclipse and possibly take in a mile race like the sussex at Goodwood. High Chaparral will probably go for the Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc. (I think the Leger would suit him).
<br>i would think hw will go for the iof races eclipse judmonte irish champion and bc classic leaving the mile races for rog and 12f races for high chapperall
Would have been a good Derby but for poor Coshocton. It was absolutely horrible witnessing it all a few yards away, and it distracted from High Chapparal’s win.
I’ve not had the video out yet to analyse the race but I can say that the Naheef confidence was bulls**t, from what I overheard.
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