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But Celestial gave no, or very little encouragement over hurdles last time. Shooting Light did. To ignore that is idi…
Ginge
And how many hurdles races has Celestial had bright spark???
He made his debut over fences, never ran over hurdles in his life. That run was a wind up run for today. You will all be wound up when you realise that Celestial Gold is laughing at Dirty Den with half a mile to go.
Some wind up Zoso, being tailed off before pulling up lame in what was no more than a selling hurdle, class wise (Celestial Gold & Super Nick apart).
Mike
Like your style Zoso- I see Barry is listening, he Bismarcked Denman on the Morning Line!
Are you prepared to say how much you’re standing him for?I have an opinion on the horse and the opinion is Dirty Den is going to get beaten, so at the price it would be unconcievable that I would not lay him. I would never talk in numbers. One of the great lays of the 2007/2008 National Hunt season.
Of course it may win, which would mean I have to pay out, but lays are always going to win and this horse at the price is begging me to lay it.
Zoso, you’re bonkers mate but all the best to you
I hope you don’t lose too much today when Denman wins (easily).I have to admit that 1/6 is frighteningly short, and almost certainly down to hype (and I’m not surprised at all it’s Corals going 1/7
), but surely on form in this lifetime Denman is a stone or more ahead of anything else, with the added advantage that his best run came at this course.Celestial Gold’s RPR on GS is 168, is it? When did he manage that? That’s right, it was when he was 3rd in this race behind Farmer Jack & Strong Flow off level weights. So really, even "retaining his ability" based on that run wouldn’t put him in the same county as Denman, who on his last two outings has destroyed this courses’ most competitive handicap off 161, and beaten the best chasers in Ireland cosily.
It isn’t hype at all – the horse is unbeaten over fences, has won a Sun Alliance, Lexus and Hennessy off 161 by 11lengths.
….and today he faces a has been, a never was and a non staying handicapper. If you think 1/6 is short – ask yourself seriously – do you think 6-1 is a good price about the field?
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Good luck to you Zoso.
At least you have the courage of your convictions; wonder how many of those who are shouting Denman off as a certainty have had the balls to back him?TDK, how about 6/1 Denman failing to complete in any form? That’s why such a short price can almost never be value IMO.
6/1 failing to complete isn’t the right price though is it? Given how well he jumps he is probably 1-16 or shorter to get round safely. Then it is what price you think he is against these given that he completes. All opinion of course but I’d rather be a backer than a layer – even at 1/6…
Wonder if it is short Friggo.
If we take all the four horse chases ran in the last 12 months what percentage fall………..I’m doing a Ginge here 20 races 80 horses 11 fallers
= about 1/7 which is means he’s value for money.Well Denman is going to have to fall to get beat
Zoso, I wish you all the best and I have to agree with you.
I would rather lay Denman at 1/6 than back him.
I think he his all hype as well and as you say he as not beaten a top class horse yet.
When you price a horse at 4/9 and the most efficient betting market available prices it at 12/1, then you’ve got the price wrong.
Which doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve got the result wrong of course, so best of luck Zoso. I think your logic is crackers, but if we all saw races the same way, there’d be no betting at all.
For me, the key today is the track and ground – Newbury on anything softer than good is the perfect set up for Denman, whereas Celestial Gold has always looked best on good or faster.
AP
I doubt you will see a better horse thats trading at 1.21 to lay all season.
Ruby Walsh could deliver one of the tactical rides of the season on board Regal Heights that will leave the critics astounded in the warm up to Cheltenham. The improver in the field from the red hot stable
The Saturday channel 4 special stable could have this Celestial Gold tuned up to perfection today and he could fight them all off. Definitely the horse to beat could be a huge coup for the Pipe stable today and one that will send shockwaves through Paul Nicholls stable and have Kauto Star backers terrified. (All though I as a Kauto Star supporter wont be in the slightest bit worried).
Ollie Macgern could cause a shock but is the weakest of my runners, however this horse was once considered good enough to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup so it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in racing if he did win a tactical race.
As people have said he could fall, I would say this is the least likliest outcome of the race as he is a very good jumper. I want to see him beaten fair and square with no room for excuses.
Or he could hack up. At 1.21 I’m willing to pay to find out.
The prices I have put up are meaningless, however I expect the finishing order of the horses to be – 1st – Celestial Gold, 2nd – Regal Heights. 3rd – Denman, 4th – Ollie Macgern. Obviously having 2 horses that I think will beat the hype animal and a horse that there is a small chance he could actually put a good race in and cause a shock, then I have to lay the hyped animal.
Celestial Gold’s last run surely offers no encouragement for a victory today as there are two ways of looking at it – both negative in my opinion.
First, if Celestial Gold did come back lame after his re-appearance hurdle run, then surely the Pipes won’t have been able to get enough work into him to be at his absolute peak and in a position to improve somewhat in order to beat Denman.
Secondly, if he wasn’t lame, and it was just a lame excuse from the Pipes, then how on earth can a horse that is tailed off before being pulled up in a very weak novice hurdle come back a month later and beat one of the highest rated chasers in the country?
Mike
nb: I’m only referring to the ‘lame’ thing as it is reported by Spotlight that CG was lame behind after his hurdle run.
Madness in my opinion Zoso! Have you been on the whacky baccie lately?
I just don’t see how you can be so confident and take such an extreme postition. In my book Denman will hack up. As someone else says horses make fools of us all the time. Best of luck to you whatever.
No bet race for me and one to enjoy.
I hope you don’t lose too much today when Denman wins (easily).
), but surely on form in this lifetime Denman is a stone or more ahead of anything else, with the added advantage that his best run came at this course.
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