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Denman holds an entry in the Pertemps Qualifier Hurdle at Wincanton (2:55) on Boxing Day
Didn’t they say his first race would be at Newbury for the AON chase? ? ?
Although i think i did read that connections were contemplating giving him a run over hurdles before the AON.
Gareth – Nicholls mentioned in his Post column yesterday that he has been busily trying to find an opening, most likely over hurdles, for him in the very near future, so I guess this must be it.
Wincanton wouldn’t necessarily be his first choice of course, as it’s hardly the most conducive for a long-striding animal, but I guess the need to get him out quickly enough for there to be a five or six-week gap until the AON Chase was the main determiner.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
not forgetting Nicholls has a pretty close relationship with Wincanton and if he runs it will almost certainly add to the gate.
It will be interesting to see how the numbers hold up if he does run – I can see some trainers being "up for it" as Denman is possibly beatable in this one and it would be a good entry in the CV.
It will also be interesting to see how the layers price this one up.
All assuming, of course, he runs
I suspect it could just be an entry to see what mark he gets to see if running in a handicap hurdle would be an option. Given the change in the rules, the handicapper could put him in off his chase mark. If he’s to run in a Pertemps qualifier, I’d have thought the one on Classic Chase day at Warwick may be more up his street.
I knew they were looking for a starting point but I didn’t realise he was ready for a run already…
The entry in itself is encouraging for his future. Doubt if he’ll run though.
Mark
Value Is EverythingCan DJ or Pru or some wise head inform us how the Official Handicappers are reacting to the new rule? Are they putting horses up much over hurdles to meet their chase marks or leaving them somewhere in the middle? I hate this rule with a passion but am interested in how it’s enforced.
Hi carvs, I tend to concentrate on the Flat so I cannot say I’m monitoring it as closely as you’d wish for a satisfactory answer but it seems to be taking each case on its merits and being quick to act if they got it wrong. e.g. Ela Re was beaten in handicap hurdls last season off 113 and 111 but win a handicap chase on his final start off 129. He was put up to 135 over fences on his reappearance and then when he went back over hurdles next time found himself running off 125. I can only imagine what Harvey said to the handicapper to ensure he was running over hurdles next time back down to 115.
Golden Feather was an exposed 2m hurdler that had many chances in handicaps for Oliver Sherwood and improved when sent over fences by Evan Williams. The handicapper took a not unrealistic view that the trainer change as much as the switch top fences was behind the horses improvement and though not putting him in back on his hurdles mark he fudged it somewhere between the 2.
Why not give him a run on the flat.
Lingfield,Kempton and Wolves should have some 1m4f and even 1m6f maiden or conditions races which could be good for Denman to race in and let Richard Hughes or Jamie Spencer get a leg up.
Paul Nicholls does have a flat license as he had a few horses who were aching for a race before the jumps got going fully.
A spin on the AW might be ideal for him.
Why not give him a run on the flat.
Lingfield,Kempton and Wolves should have some 1m4f and even 1m6f maiden or conditions races which could be good for Denman to race in and let Richard Hughes or Jamie Spencer get a leg up.
Paul Nicholls does have a flat license as he had a few horses who were aching for a race before the jumps got going fully.
A spin on the AW might be ideal for him.
You aren’t Simon Berry in disguise are you?
Nicholls won’t run him in the King George because he thinks the track is too tight for him. Can’t imagine he’ll want top run him on the AW track seeing as that is inside the Jumps track. The onltrack that would suit him would be Southwell, but there’s zero chance of that happening.
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Why not give him a run on the flat.
Lingfield,Kempton and Wolves should have some 1m4f and even 1m6f maiden or conditions races which could be good for Denman to race in and let Richard Hughes or Jamie Spencer get a leg up.
Paul Nicholls does have a flat license as he had a few horses who were aching for a race before the jumps got going fully.
A spin on the AW might be ideal for him.
I agree, I think a run against Mark Johnstons Keenes Day would be a good run out
If Denman does run in a handicap hurdle it would present a potentially interesting and historic occasion.
Going back over the last decade or so, I can’t think of any higher-rated hurdlers to run in a handicap than Baracouda (off 170 in 2m 6f handicap at Sandown) and Rooster Booster (off 166 in the Totesport Trophy).
Now if Denman were to be assessed anything near to his chase mark, then he’d be the highest rated horse to run in a handicap hurdle for some time.
Obviously that would mean that he’d keep every rival out of the handicap as well.
Imagine if he bolts up? The handicapper could hardly drop him for winning by a large margin, but then he’d be potentially the highest rated hurdler of all time! By virtue of one run in a handicap!
On a personal note I hope they don’t run him over hurdles. He’s a chaser and that’s where he should be going. I wondered if the Irish Hennessy might not end up on the agenda? I know his trainer has stated the AON as the target but you never know…
Wonder if Nicholls wants to use a hurdle race to help get Denman fit. May be he will need two races to get back to peak fitness after his problems.
Mark
Value Is EverythingLooks as if he’s been put on a mark of 165 over hurdles. He’s set to give 7lbs to Elusive Dream, who’s currently on 158.
That’s 17lbs below his chase mark. To answer the question about how the handicappers are handling this new rule, I’d say that the general approach is to assess the amount of improvement made over fences since the last hurdle appearance, take into account the age of the horse and the time gap since the last hurdle run, estimate the credibility of that old hurdle form, then get the dice out and roll to establish the revised hurdle mark.
To give another example, when Island Flyer was pixellated at Wincanton, his chase mark rose from 125 to 132. In parallel his hurdle mark (unchanged after his first three chase wins) was raised from 97 to 122. Following the Hennessey, the chase mark dropped back to 131, but the hurdle mark remains on 122.
I’m sure the official line would be that each individual horse is rated on its merits at the discretion of the handicapper.
The whole system is riddled with anomalies – I could give chapter and verse on a horse with a leading trainer that reverted to fences this year and was entered for a handicap despite it’s published official mark being 4lbs above the maximum for the race. Weatherbys rang to inform the trainer his horse wasn’t qualified, to which he replied ‘I spoke to the handicapper last week and he agreed to drop the rating so I could run in this race’.
The horse ran with top weight and won.
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