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Alexandros undoubtedly has the strongest form in the race, but with his stamina to prove, a likely need for soft ground and the fact that there’s no telling just how well he is if he’s been wintering in Dubai (could that be the problem, the fact that Godolphin’s horses only ever think it’s summer), the race looks wide open.
I have concerns as to how well Achill Island will stay and how he will cope with the underfoot conditions, and can’t even entertain the idea of Unnefer or Tajaaweed winning, so I’ve had a speculative wager on North Parade at 16/1.
Brian Meehan seems to have his horses in much better form now, and there was plenty of promise in North Parade’s staying-on second to Centennial last year. He didn’t look anything like the finished article that day, so with a winter on his back and upped in trip he looks worth chancing.
An interesting race nonetheless, but I’ll stick my neck out and make North Parade my bet of the day <!– s:? –>
<!– s:? –> I had put up Celtic Sultan as my best bet and, having availed myself of the general 9/1 available this morning, now see that Pricewise has put him up. There goes another £30…<!– s:evil: –>
<!– s:evil: –>Good analysis there LGR; may have a cheeky e/w punt on North Parade myself.
I think Alexandros has the race at his mercy if he takes to the ground.
Alex has easily the best form and should get the trip, but you have to worry about Godolphin form at the moment. Agree North Parade on the Cenntennial form a big price at 25.0 on BF (only 4.4 a place
).I think the most likely winner today is Achill Island although the betting on him suggests that he is not fancied for epsom or at least he is not the coolmore Number one for epsom, and wouldnt look that fancied for the derby, he was 140-1 on betfair the other night and was backed in to 79 last night (probably by punters) when I looked. However Sail was very weak in the Oaks market the other day, with all the money coming in for moonstone, but strong at the course on the day and won easily enough.
I agree with LGRs choice of North Parade at 16s and also have a liking for the Barron Sanders horse at a bigger price but not sure if he will get his ground today.
Its a hard race to call though and wouldnt look a brilliant dee stakes on paper. Barring the O’brien second second string and the hannon horse I think I could make a case for anything in that race to have a chance today although I wouldnt fancy any of them for epsom, it will be interesting to see what the race reveals.
Not for the future – when I ‘can’t entertain’ the chances of two horses, put them in a forecast
That was close.
Coming round the final corner i thought that Unnefer looked the more likely winner if he could pick up well, as Ted Durcan seemed to have plenty of horse still under him.
There has been a lot of barging into other horses this week at Chester, and coming round the last corner again, Frankie Dettori’s mount wasn’t done any favours.
Not a great race, what you have to remember about May though is stoute will usually have his stoked up for these trials, and if your looking at a weak trial like todays, then stoute has also seen that same weak trial, and he cant really be ruled out. Id expect though that that is as good as the horse is, probably the same with cecils. Couldnt have anything in that race for epsom.
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