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Gotta agree with Ian here. I think Celestial is the main danger. He’s going to be about 4L to 5L better at Chelts come March. He has proven already he comes up the hill and has won the Triumph. Binocular would be able to wallop anything at Ascot and did so – He will find it harder at Chelts and really still has to DEFINITIVELY prove he comes up dat hill (Remember he was btn by Captain Cee Bee). I think Binocular is still nailed on for the ch hdl but I dont think i agree with Ladbrokes opinion (Evens Binox, 10/1 2nd fav Sublimity). I think it shud be 6/4 Binny, 9/2 Celestial, 10/1 Sublimity and Katchit – forget the rest. Something like that. Binny SHUD win but I don’t think it’s going to be the consummate procession some on here think it might be. Celestial is bound to make him work hard and Sublimity for all his crappy ch hdl win seems to be in cracking form and shud improve on last years 4th. My forecast wud be Binny to win, Celestial 2nd and Sublimity and Katchit to scrap it out for 3rd.
8/1 for the Champion Hurdle about Sublimity is an insult to human intellegence.
He simply does not get the trip in a true run race round there.
Forget his CH win which was a complete farce. Watch him against Noland when he it the rising ground and watch him do the same thng last year against Katchit.
Even when he hit the front he year he won he bounced up and down in the same place and two hald dead horses never lost another inch of ground on him,
He should be at least 25/1 for the CH he has absolutely no change….if a fe run badly he could get a distant 3rd at best……Wake up guys and look what he beat…….think what Binoclular Osana Katchit Crack Away Jack Punjabi Jered would do to what Sublimity scraped home against……..
Think you are totally wrong about Sublimity Fist. His didn’t have the best of preparations for the CH last season. He got decent ground at Leopardstown on Monday and was quite impressive IMO, he will never put daylight between himself and horses he defeats, he does just enough and idles a little in front.
When he was defeated in the Supreme by Noland he was shoved out around the bend as they came down the hill, he is a good horse and I think he will be there or thereabouts come March
JohnJ
I don’t think Sub’s Champion Hurdle was a fluke, but I do think that he took his best opportunity. A turn of foot is not always so decisive in the Champion. I’d fancy Punjabi to confirm his form with him. It’s a shame Sizing Europe was so disappointing, he looks difficult to keep sound.
Well, that was painfully disappointing from Sizing Europe.
I agree that his excuses are mounting…but that cannot be his running, surely?!
I am convinced he is far better than that..he has proved that already.
I don’t know whether he has some sort of injury – the trainer seems to be "hoping" something may turn up to explain the run.
Hmm, I am willing to give SE one more chance as I still aver that he would have beaten Katchit in this year’s Champion Hurdle had he not been pulled up.
I may be spouting toilet, of course….
Confused Zippy
- Total Posts 17716
Just so I understand, Fists, you’re saying it’s not OK to write off a horse on the back of a couple of high profile defeats, but it is OK to write off an entire career on the back of a debut third in Grade 1 company and a subsequent victory?
My memory may be playing tricks on me – and in truth I can’t be bothered to search for the relevants posts – but were you not raving about Cousin Vinny after his performances in the races you so eloquently describe as ‘a bumper or two’?
You contradict yourself so often it’s untrue, and then try to justify the ridiculous Segal-esque comments you make by claiming that context changes everything (Grass’ wasn’t talking about Cousin Vinny in the same vein as Sizing Eurpope, but writing off is writing off).
As for Sublimity, I don’t think he’s as far out of things as you suggest. If he’s ridden closer to the pace, rather than forced to make up length after length from half-way, then he’ll be a different horse. Whether he has the natural ability of Binocular is a different question, but even he has something to prove (stamina wise).
The Champion Hurdle hasn’t already been won.
I don’t know why everyone has to insult horses who perform poorly- the writing was on the wall for Sizing Europe after his well publicised problem- horses seldom win Grade 1 races after a preparation like that (Don’t Forget Me one noticeable exception). Anyone who took short odds about him knowing what he’d been through was playing with fire. He seems to be becoming an unlucky horse and little has gone right for him since his brilliant win over C and D last year. I’d guess they’ll persevere over hurdles this season and while it wouldn’t shock me if he made a comeback, you couldn’t have him on your mind for a Champion off that run. It doesn’t mean he’s ungenuine as some have suggested.
I laid Sublimity in the Champion last year as I couldn’t see him contending off the prep he’d had- one poor run. He ran a belter and frightened me to death before flattening out on the run-in on ground which was probably a bit softer that ideal. He surely has a better chance of reproducing his run of 2007 this March as his new trainer doesn’t think he needs wrapping in cotton wool with a run every six months- he’s taking his racing well this season. No way can he be dismissed and he’s got every chance of winning the Irish Champion en route to the big one. There are worse 10-1 shots. He’s the only Irish contender for me and his price is much better value than the overhyped soon to be 5-y-o who still has to show he’ll come up the hill. if the ground came up good in March he could be the bet.Fair rationale there CH.
I need to see SE again to be sure that he is still not a serious contender for the Champion.
Yep, Sublimity def has a decent E/W chance on good ground.
Zip
8/1 for the Champion Hurdle about Sublimity is an insult to human intellegence.
He simply does not get the trip in a true run race round there.
Forget his CH win which was a complete farce. Watch him against Noland when he it the rising ground and watch him do the same thng last year against Katchit.
Even when he hit the front he year he won he bounced up and down in the same place and two hald dead horses never lost another inch of ground on him,
He should be at least 25/1 for the CH he has absolutely no change….if a fe run badly he could get a distant 3rd at best……Wake up guys and look what he beat…….think what Binoclular Osana Katchit Crack Away Jack Punjabi Jered would do to what Sublimity scraped home against……..
Think you are totally wrong about Sublimity Fist. His didn’t have the best of preparations for the CH last season. He got decent ground at Leopardstown on Monday and was quite impressive IMO, he will never put daylight between himself and horses he defeats, he does just enough and idles a little in front.
When he was defeated in the Supreme by Noland he was shoved out around the bend as they came down the hill, he is a good horse and I think he will be there or thereabouts come March
JohnJ
Well I never just came up with it last year JJ. I studied the horse for hours on end and the shove at the bend you talk about wouldn’t have made an ounce of difference. Not only Noland ran away from him that day, everything that was in with a chance did. He simply can’t cope with the hill plus he is a mile behind the top horses anyway.
That race yesterday was a joke in comparison to what Binocular has done. Don’t forget even less testing tracks Punjabi has beaten him twice and I’m damnsure Punjabi likes Chltenham more than Sublimity does……The horse has no chance IMO
Just so I understand, Fists, you’re saying it’s not OK to write off a horse on the back of a couple of high profile defeats, but it is OK to write off an entire career on the back of a debut third in Grade 1 company and a subsequent victory?
My memory may be playing tricks on me – and in truth I can’t be bothered to search for the relevants posts – but were you not raving about Cousin Vinny after his performances in the races you so eloquently describe as ‘a bumper or two’?
You contradict yourself so often it’s untrue, and then try to justify the ridiculous Segal-esque comments you make by claiming that context changes everything (Grass’ wasn’t talking about Cousin Vinny in the same vein as Sizing Eurpope, but writing off is writing off).
As for Sublimity, I don’t think he’s as far out of things as you suggest. If he’s ridden closer to the pace, rather than forced to make up length after length from half-way, then he’ll be a different horse. Whether he has the natural ability of Binocular is a different question, but even he has something to prove (stamina wise).
The Champion Hurdle hasn’t already been won.
First of Grassy was the one who made the statement which I anwered sensibly honestly and truthfully.
You are mixing my words, more or less calling me a liar and writing total and utter garbage which stinks of someone out to cause trouble.
Cut the crap LGR it’s not your name you should have changed it’s your manners and your attidude towards other posters that needs changing.
Fist,
That shove in the Supreme most definitely broke Sublimity’s momentum, and to say the horse does not get up the hill is a bit ridiculous after walking the walk by winning the CH in 2007. Although Binocular may look bullet proof, he has got to prove his credentials in March. His performance at Ascot was impressive, but I think the form of that race is not all that great, Celestial Halo is over hyped IMO, Chomba Womba is better over further, Katchit looks to have fallen out of love with the game and Crack Away Jack should go chasing. Sublimity’s win at Leop on Monday was not on ideal ground and his prep for this year’s CH looks much better already.
JohnJ.
WellJJ we all see things differenty. I havea video of that race and Sublimty was running over them coming to the last but stopped dead on the run in.
Thatase go back if you can and watch Hardy Eustace win his Champion Hurdles. He comes under preasure about 2 from home and runs on well to win.
Then watch where Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca come under pressure when Sublimity won…..fully 4 hurdles from home…they were so knackered by the last I could have runpast them without a horse.
I said all this last season and Sublimity did exactly as I predicted.
He hasn’t a cat in hells chnce of getting the trip in March and Binny would pick him up and carry him………..There is only two dangers to Binnty
1. He falls Gawd forbid
2. My bookie sends someone to dope him
Hehas to I need the money tobuyanew keyboard……keeps failing to put spaces in like that
Very disappointed with Sizing Europe’s run. To me he was the only Irish trained horse who had a real chance of shaking up Binocular but I’m fast losing confidence in him. I don’t think he’s a bridle horse (see his win at Punchestown as a novice, Greatwood and AIG) but he has gone out like a light on his three last runs. He’s such a tall gangly horse and I think he’s much more susceptible to niggly little injuries than smaller more compact types.
If he was to reproduce his AIG run then he’d be bang there at Cheltenham but it’s getting to the stage where all us Sizing Europe fans may have to concede that his performance that day was a bit of a freak occurance.
Only Fist could argue that a former Champion Hurdler hasn’t "a cat in hell’s chance" of staying the Champion Hurdle trip next March whereas there are no doubts about a five year old who didn’t get home over the same C+D last March- priceless.
Don’t talk about me like I am not around you condescending pratt.
You think differently you can say so without the attempt to try and make me look like an idiot or is that too much to ask from a senior member of the forum who should know statements like yours only lead to fights?
I think a lot more people would be happier holding my AP vouchers than anything you got mate.
What A Friend 14/1 now fav at 9/1 Binocular 22/1 now fav at 6/4 Hurricane Fly 7/1 now 5/1 Kauto Star 7/1 now 11/4 Master Minded 6/4 now 4/9 and Calgary Bay 40/1 now 14/1 all in my posts if you ever take the time to read them.
I’ll let others judge who the idiot is around here is
Only Fist could argue that a former Champion Hurdler hasn’t "a cat in hell’s chance" of staying the Champion Hurdle trip next March whereas there are no doubts about a five year old who didn’t get home over the same C+D last March- priceless.
I’m gonna stand up for Fist here there is no need for that.
A horse can win at a trip without really staying it due to factors like tailwind, going conditions or the fact that the race is run at no gallop.
Harchibald for example doesn’t really stay 2 miles on anything other than an easy track.
I’m not totally certain I agree with Fist regarding Sublimity’s stamina but its all about opinions. I just don’t think the horse will be good enough to get within lengths of the ex novices.
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