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Dead Certs. (on the whole)

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Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 24 total)
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  • #5244
    Avatar photocarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi gang

    I will kick this off with the following……

    1. Horses don’t always run on their merits.
    2. Bookies are conmen.
    3. Betting doesn’t attract a high calibre of person.

    byefrom
    carlisle

    ps As much as I can get on TREBLE, thankyou!

    #117334
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7511

    Nice inspiring post there.

    1. No horses don’t always run on their merits, but there’s a million and one reasons for it, and most of them are not sinister reasons.

    2. The ‘bookies are conmen’ bit is a load of cobblers, and a common cry of those whose judgement isn’t what it could be.

    3. Betting attracts every ‘calibre of person’.

    Rob

    #117335
    Avatar photocarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi robnorth

    so you reckon the Bookie is trying to give you a fair deal…..

    "oh give your head a wobble mate!"

    byefrom
    carlisle

    #117336
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2923

    Rob, try working for a bookmaker (off-course that is) and see if you still feel the same way.

    Colin

    #117337
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7511

    Carlisle

    No, the bookmaker is trying to run a business in a competitive environment on the best terms that he is able to trade at. That is good business sense, and certainly doesn’t make the bookmaker a ‘conman’. As the customer we have the right to

    a) take our business elsewhere OR
    b) refrain from betting

    These days I have three methods of betting

    1. The exchanges, where I am able to take or request a value price.
    2. On course market taking board prices which I consider value.
    3. Occasionally on the Tote where in certain circumstances I feel I can gain an edge.

    Rob

    #117342
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    There’s no such thing as a dead cert .. not for the reasons you have given though. Short prices on horses aren’t really that short.

    There are some horrors involved in racing though, I have to agree.

    #117345
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Hi robnorth

    so you reckon the Bookie is trying to give you a fair deal…..

    That’s a massive misrepresentation of what Rob wrote.

    And followed with the obnoxious

    “oh give your head a wobble mate!”

    As Rob says, the bookie is just someone who offers you a price.

    And, because you’ve got the right to walk away, you’re the one who chooses what price you bet at.

    Steve

    #117360
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2923

    Dead cert…….Derek Thompson will say "they’re not messing about here" at least a couple of times when he is commentating on a race meeting. :wink:

    Colin

    #117363
    Avatar photoCav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4833

    1. True
    2. Bookies in general are patient, have discipline, know how to correctly evaluate probability and run horseracing as a business, which is why they make money at it
    3. Betting attracts people from all walks of life.

    #117393
    Hayley Bell
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    I quite like dead certs in a 2/9 shot trading at 4/5 sense of the word.

    Say the conditions (ground, likely pace (or lack of), distance, shape of course) are sound and a horse is obviously head and shoulders above the rest and the form of most of the protagonists is consistant then I’m quite happy to steam in.

    Naturally races such as claimers/sellers/low grade hunters/handicaps I wouldn’t touch with stolen money. First time out chasers on the other hand are usually overpriced and by and large jump better than markets give them credit for.

    #117394
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2923

    Welcome, Hayley.

    Colin

    #117395
    Avatar photograysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6966

    Naturally races such as claimers/sellers/low grade hunters/handicaps I wouldn’t touch with stolen money.

    Naturally?

    Most of my biggest touches of the season are landed in hunters’ chases -highlights this year included Kilbreena in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow and getting the first three home in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford.

    I’d counter that hunters’ chases, like any other type of race, reward patience and research, even if that means going through reams of loose-leaf updates with less of the useful point-to-point information readily available online.

    Then again, I concede that as there is so much racing to keep a handle on nowdays, a degree of specialisation is bound to be adapted by many people. For you it’s presumably the top-class stuff, for me it’s the superannuated wheezy hunters, summer jumps and selling grade filth. Vive la difference. Or something.

    I love your signature, by the way. :)

    gc

    Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #117397
    Avatar photocarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi stevedvg

    "Oh give your head a wobble mate".

    byefrom
    carlisle

    #117403
    Avatar photoDrone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6010

    First time out chasers on the other hand are usually overpriced and by and large jump better than markets give them credit for.

    Agreed, as generalisations go that’s a pretty sound one, if hardly a "dead cert" :)

    A 6/4 fav in the shape of Grenfell-the-sluggard over too short a trip certainly made the market for the Hobbs-trained chasing debutant Jim Edwards, who was allowed off at a long 9/2 at Rasen on Sunday.

    #117404
    Avatar photocarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi dave Jay

    dave, dave, dave….. "no such thing as a Dead Cert", there are loads mate.

    I am anyone’s for a cream slice!

    byefrom
    carlisle

    #117415
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    carlisle, your as mad as a wet hen .. but I love you just the same … !
    :D

    An 8/11 shot has only got a 57%(ish) chance of winning, that’s not very certain. I gave my head a wobble and it still looks pretty uncertain to me.

    #117432
    Avatar photocarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    But would you be willing to lay me at 5/6?

    Please don’t answer that

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