Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Trends, Research And Notebooks › Dead Certs. (on the whole)
- This topic has 23 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 17 years ago by carlisle.
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October 1, 2007 at 06:57 #5244
Hi gang
I will kick this off with the following……
1. Horses don’t always run on their merits.
2. Bookies are conmen.
3. Betting doesn’t attract a high calibre of person.byefrom
carlisleps As much as I can get on TREBLE, thankyou!
October 1, 2007 at 07:07 #117334Nice inspiring post there.
1. No horses don’t always run on their merits, but there’s a million and one reasons for it, and most of them are not sinister reasons.
2. The ‘bookies are conmen’ bit is a load of cobblers, and a common cry of those whose judgement isn’t what it could be.
3. Betting attracts every ‘calibre of person’.
Rob
October 1, 2007 at 07:29 #117335Hi robnorth
so you reckon the Bookie is trying to give you a fair deal…..
"oh give your head a wobble mate!"
byefrom
carlisleOctober 1, 2007 at 07:37 #117336Rob, try working for a bookmaker (off-course that is) and see if you still feel the same way.
Colin
October 1, 2007 at 07:38 #117337Carlisle
No, the bookmaker is trying to run a business in a competitive environment on the best terms that he is able to trade at. That is good business sense, and certainly doesn’t make the bookmaker a ‘conman’. As the customer we have the right to
a) take our business elsewhere OR
b) refrain from bettingThese days I have three methods of betting
1. The exchanges, where I am able to take or request a value price.
2. On course market taking board prices which I consider value.
3. Occasionally on the Tote where in certain circumstances I feel I can gain an edge.Rob
October 1, 2007 at 08:06 #117342There’s no such thing as a dead cert .. not for the reasons you have given though. Short prices on horses aren’t really that short.
There are some horrors involved in racing though, I have to agree.
October 1, 2007 at 08:08 #117345Hi robnorth
so you reckon the Bookie is trying to give you a fair deal…..
That’s a massive misrepresentation of what Rob wrote.
And followed with the obnoxious
“oh give your head a wobble mate!”
As Rob says, the bookie is just someone who offers you a price.
And, because you’ve got the right to walk away, you’re the one who chooses what price you bet at.
Steve
October 1, 2007 at 09:31 #117360Dead cert…….Derek Thompson will say "they’re not messing about here" at least a couple of times when he is commentating on a race meeting.
Colin
October 1, 2007 at 09:36 #1173631. True
2. Bookies in general are patient, have discipline, know how to correctly evaluate probability and run horseracing as a business, which is why they make money at it
3. Betting attracts people from all walks of life.October 1, 2007 at 12:34 #117393I quite like dead certs in a 2/9 shot trading at 4/5 sense of the word.
Say the conditions (ground, likely pace (or lack of), distance, shape of course) are sound and a horse is obviously head and shoulders above the rest and the form of most of the protagonists is consistant then I’m quite happy to steam in.
Naturally races such as claimers/sellers/low grade hunters/handicaps I wouldn’t touch with stolen money. First time out chasers on the other hand are usually overpriced and by and large jump better than markets give them credit for.
October 1, 2007 at 12:38 #117394Welcome, Hayley.
Colin
October 1, 2007 at 13:26 #117395Naturally races such as claimers/sellers/low grade hunters/handicaps I wouldn’t touch with stolen money.
Naturally?
Most of my biggest touches of the season are landed in hunters’ chases -highlights this year included Kilbreena in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow and getting the first three home in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford.
I’d counter that hunters’ chases, like any other type of race, reward patience and research, even if that means going through reams of loose-leaf updates with less of the useful point-to-point information readily available online.
Then again, I concede that as there is so much racing to keep a handle on nowdays, a degree of specialisation is bound to be adapted by many people. For you it’s presumably the top-class stuff, for me it’s the superannuated wheezy hunters, summer jumps and selling grade filth. Vive la difference. Or something.
I love your signature, by the way.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
October 1, 2007 at 13:35 #117397Hi stevedvg
"Oh give your head a wobble mate".
byefrom
carlisleOctober 1, 2007 at 14:30 #117403First time out chasers on the other hand are usually overpriced and by and large jump better than markets give them credit for.
Agreed, as generalisations go that’s a pretty sound one, if hardly a "dead cert"
A 6/4 fav in the shape of Grenfell-the-sluggard over too short a trip certainly made the market for the Hobbs-trained chasing debutant Jim Edwards, who was allowed off at a long 9/2 at Rasen on Sunday.
October 1, 2007 at 14:40 #117404Hi dave Jay
dave, dave, dave….. "no such thing as a Dead Cert", there are loads mate.
I am anyone’s for a cream slice!
byefrom
carlisleOctober 1, 2007 at 16:42 #117415carlisle, your as mad as a wet hen .. but I love you just the same … !
An 8/11 shot has only got a 57%(ish) chance of winning, that’s not very certain. I gave my head a wobble and it still looks pretty uncertain to me.
October 1, 2007 at 18:47 #117432But would you be willing to lay me at 5/6?
Please don’t answer that
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