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Moonlight Cloud didn’t run in the Derby and pull his own head off and jockeys arms out then face a battle royal at Royal Ascot and another at Goodwood before taking a trip from Ireland over to France though Ginge.
So by that are you saying that because DA "pull his own head off and jockeys arms out" at Epsom… DA should not have run and WON the St James Palace?
Your totting up process does not mean a thing Nathan. Fact DA won the St James Palace
proves
running at Epsom did not hinder his Ascot chance FULL STOP. It
proves
he can handle races close together. Running really well at Goodwood
proves
he came out of Ascot well. Of course that does
not
mean he will
always
run well after just a short break, just that if there are reasons for doing so (ie avoiding Toronado) it may be worth having a go. Just as if a horse runs well on good-firm does not make it run well on good-firm on every occasion. There are other reasons why horses run poorly.
Bolger knows Dawn Approach’s ability is exposed. In future others may well improve past him. So it made sense to try and strike while the iron is hot. It did not pay off this time.
Value Is EverythingThe whole totting up process combined together would of hindered the horses chances yesterday imo.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Personally, if I were the owner or trainer of a horse with just an outside chance of winning the Derby – I’d want to run. Even if you believed Dawn Approach would not stay and/or a false price at Epsom – it was still an obvious decision to take a chance…
If it was an obvious decision why did his trainer not enter him originally? He didn’t believe the horse would stay.
On breeding Dawn Approach’s ability to stay the Derby trip was not a foregone conclusion Joni, some pointers either way. On breeding I can see why Bolger did not believe him a 12 furlong horse and as a two year old had plenty of speed. So understandable did not enter the horse for Epsom. However, as it went on DA seemed to settle very well and often needed pushing along quite some way out. In the 2000 Guineas there was no indication of being a hard puller and settled well (unlike Frankel). So PRIOR to Epsom there were reasons to suggest DA had a good chance of staying further than Bolger might think from just looking at breeding. There were also no real top class 3 year old colts in opposition. Statistically, he’d be a fool not to change his mind. With the "quality" of Ruler Of The World’s winning performance, had Bolger not run DA he’d have been castigated by both Press and TRFers. If he stays, he wins. He didn’t, so didn’t, but that is hindsight. In my opinion it does not take anything away from what a super horse Dawn Approach is.
Value Is EverythingGinge – who is saying he should not have run at Goodwood? Certainly not me. A gap of 40 odd days – no problem.
It transpires the poor old horse is now sick.
Certainly not you Joni, but comments like…
“The Derby took a lot out of him and he’s been given a hard time
ever
since”.
“Not sure if its Bolger or godolphin but his
placing
has been a
farce
”.
“there must be a race at southwell he can get
beaten
in”.
… seem to suggest a few people were criticising running at Goodwood.
Value Is EverythingI am sorry Ginge but whilst I agree it takes nothing away from what a wonderful horse DA is, I cannot agree that JB would have been castigated if he had not been supplemented for the race! In fact I remember reading many people castigating him BEFORE the race for running in the race. Was it David Ashforth who said on the morning of the race there was no way he could win?
I agree the race was there to be won but seldom are such big races won when they have been an afterthought as this was.
Let’s face it, Dawn Approach had spent his whole racing life running over much shorter distances. Less than a year before the Derby he was running over 6f. In fact his first 4 races were 5f,6f,6f,6f. DA would have become accustomed to racing quickly. Even over 7f and a mile a pacemaker was employed to keep the pace fast. This is not the profile of a Derby winner and it is little wonder that the horse got a bit confused when asked to crawl along at Epsom.
Do you think he would have run in the Derby if Sheikh Mo had not become the owner? By the trainers own admission it was the owners idea not his. In the end, as you argued brilliantly at the time, we didn’t even really find out if he DID stay. He pulled so hard that it was impossible to tell. It wasn’t his stamina but his running style that let him down that day.
Ironically he will now never be tried over further than a mile because of what happened that day. If they had gone Guineas, St J, Sussex then they could now be thinking of a Juddmonte or a Champion like his sire. Epsom was such a disaster that I very much doubt that will enter their thoughts now.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Ginge – who is saying he should not have run at Goodwood? Certainly not me. A gap of 40 odd days – no problem.
It transpires the poor old horse is now sick.
Certainly not you Joni, but comments like…
“The Derby took a lot out of him and he’s been given a hard time
ever
since”.
“Not sure if its Bolger or godolphin but his
placing
has been a
farce
”.
“there must be a race at southwell he can get
beaten
in”.
… seem to suggest a few people were criticising running at Goodwood.
Well if they are that is silly but I don’t think they are. The Sussex was the obvious race for him and came after a break. The Derby and JLM are the races I think most are questioning. Well it is what I am questioning anyway!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Note, Moonlight Cloud had a quick turn around (just 7 days in her case), yet nobody is criticising Freddie Head. Wonder why?
Your argument with Moonlight Cloud holds no weight as she was only having her 3rd race of the season so has plenty of petrol left in the tank.
When horses run in quick succession I often look at whether the horse has run well in such conditions before. From my experience if a horse has done so before it is more likely to do so again. Some horses are capable of running well without a gap, some aren’t. Dawn Approach is.
Dawn Approach showed he was in good form at the time of the Sussex. So he’d proven that he was over the two quick races Epsom and Ascot. In my opinion once a horse is over a race, he’s over it. Though connections will use it sometimes as an excuse.
However, I am not at all surprised Bolger has announced a dirty scope as a reason Joni. Quite a few stable horses have run poorly lately and only 1 winner in his last 30+ runners. Much worse than you’d expect. Nothing to do with a quick return, everything to do with the stable’s health.
Value Is EverythingJeez, good ol’ Dancing Brave had run in the Craven, 2000, Derby, Eclipse and King George at this time in 1986 …
…Isn’t it just likely that the horse has simply ‘gone over’ now?
He’s run creditably in every race barring the Derby, but speaking personally I had thought him perhaps a slightly better horse than he probably is following a sterling performance in the 2,000. A very good horse but clearly flawed too.
I am sorry Ginge but whilst I agree it takes nothing away from what a wonderful horse DA is, I cannot agree that JB would have been castigated if he had not been supplemented for the race! In fact I remember reading many people castigating him BEFORE the race for running in the race. Was it David Ashforth who said on the morning of the race there was no way he could win?
I agree the race was there to be won but seldom are such big races won when they have been an afterthought as this was.Let’s face it, Dawn Approach had spent his whole racing life running over much shorter distances. Less than a year before the Derby he was running over 6f. In fact his first 4 races were 5f,6f,6f,6f. DA would have become accustomed to racing quickly.
Even over 7f and a mile a pacemaker was employed to keep the pace fast. This is not the profile of a Derby winner
and it is little wonder that the horse got a bit confused when asked to crawl along at Epsom.
Do you think he would have run in the Derby if Sheikh Mo had not become the owner? By the trainers own admission it was the owners idea not his. In the end, as you argued brilliantly at the time, we didn’t even really find out if he DID stay. He pulled so hard that it was impossible to tell. It wasn’t his stamina but his running style that let him down that day.
Ironically he will now never be tried over further than a mile because of what happened that day. If they had gone Guineas, St J, Sussex then they could now be thinking of a Juddmonte or a Champion like his sire. Epsom was such a disaster that I very much doubt that will enter their thoughts now.
That is a good point Joni, it would be nice to see DA run at 10 furlongs. But not even DA in his write up could’ve foreseen DA pulling so hard.
Value Is EverythingI just wonder if
Dawn Approach’s
dismal showing was simply down to the going at
Deauville
which was the fastest I can recall at
+0.55s/f
(firm), the day before I had the going at
+0.45s/f
(good to firm)
The super quick going yesterday, certainly helped
Moonlight Cloud
stay the 1m trip
However, I am not at all surprised Bolger has announced a dirty scope as a reason Joni. Quite a few stable horses have run poorly lately and only 1 winner in his last 30+ runners. Much worse than you’d expect. Nothing to do with a quick return, everything to do with the stable’s health.
Chroussa was a non runner yesterday with a temperature and his other horses didn’t feature. The only horse who ran to form was Leitir Mor who just finished behind Dawn Approach.
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