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Tamarinbleu in the Swinton Hurdle a couple of years ago, nobody thought he’d stay. Finished thid at 33/1.
The Package had looked a short runner over 2m4f. Last month at Cheltenham he finished second at 40/1 over 3m.
Pablo Du Charmil had looked best at a sharp 2m. Today at Uttoxeter, he nicked fourth at 33/1 over 3m.
They managed to turn Madison Du Berlais from a 2 miler into a staying chaser too. Impressive work all round.
Tamarinbleu
in the Swinton Hurdle a couple of years ago, nobody thought he’d stay. Finished thid at 33/1.
1) Tamarinbleu has never run in the Swinton. He has, however, run in the 2m7.5f handicap hurdle at Haydock on the same afternoon.
2) It was not his first run over a trip of or close to 3m. His previous run – in a 3m1f class 2 handicap chase at Aintree – was.
3) It’s probably not accurate to suggest "nobody thought he would stay", as the propensity to do so, granted a clear enough round, had already been hinted at. His 19l 6th in that Aintree contest owed more to him taking the final open ditch by the roots, when still making headway, than it did to any failure to stay.
On that basis his closer finish at Haydock cannot have counted as a complete shock; and a positive reaction to first-time blinkers, coupled with no late stopping errors (he bungled the sixth but was fine thereafter), were also contributory factors to that 2.75l third.
HTH,
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Pablo Du Charmil
had looked best at a sharp 2m.
Haven’t compared and contrasted with Timeform ratings, but Pablo’s equal-best RPRs of 157 have been recorded in finishing third in last season’s Desert Orchid Chase and in winining at Cheltenham’s Open meeting immediately prior to that.
Both were 2m contests, but whilst opinion will differ as to how sharp 2m at Kempton actually is, Cheltenham isn’t sharp by any recognised measure.
His two next best RPRs, 151 for winning the 2007 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter and 149 when third in the 2008 running of Doncaster’s well-endowed 2m handicap in February, weren’t recorded around sharp tracks (and in the case of the former not over 2m, either).
On balance, that wouldn’t back up the claim overly.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
For a new member, that was a brave attempt Zee Zoo, though I hesitate to suggest there’s a lesson from ‘a master’ of the formbook to be learned there. I appreciate it was only your opinion but it’s useful to have a sound knowledge-springboard before tackling the big hitters on this forum.
KenBe assured the above posts were posted merely as a counter against placing too much store in a trend which possibly isn’t quite as strong as is being suggested, rather than out of any innate desire to squash newbies. That’s not how I roll.
Madison Du Berlais’ "reinvention" is a moot point, come to think of it – he did, after all, have six or seven tries over 3m+ trips (albeit in decent company) before finally winning one.
He also ran over further than 2m in chases in his native France before Team Pipe acquired him, though in fairness the slower pace of many of those 2m2f-2m3f contests he participated in may well have rendered them as only as much or as little of a test as the 2m races of his first British season.
gc
PS Ken – ‘fraid I’m still no taller, no more countrified or that much older than when you last asked. Sorry about that!
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
GC, ……..that might very well be true, but the Eton accent is very much in evidence!
Cheers
KenEton?!? Are you having a Turkish, Ken?
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
- Total Posts 43
Apologies about the Swinton reference, the mind tends to struggle after wrestling with several meetings of an afternoon. But your pedanty is impressive graysonscolumn.
[quote="graysonscolumn"Madison Du Berlais’ "reinvention" is a moot point, come to think of it – he did, after all, have six or seven tries over 3m+ trips (albeit in decent company) before finally winning one.
Is the word ‘reinvention’ synonomous with something happening instantly? Not in my language.
your pedanty is impressive graysonscolumn.
Pedantry schmedantry – there were a couple of wrongs to right, no more, no less. And as intimated previously, the motives for countering the claims made in the initial post were entirely honest.
Is the word ‘reinvention’ synonomous with something happening instantly? Not in my language.
Arguably not, but that would then beg the question as to how useful a statement the one made on Madison Du Berlais actually is for any betting purposes, including but not limited to trend analysis-driven ones.
The gelding has ascended new heights in 3m+ chases this last season, that much is clear; but having failed to collect six times over such distances, might not a lot of blind-backers of any
he-will-improve-for-the-step-up-to-3m-plus-because-that’s-what-Pipe-horses-do
theorem have chucked in the towel before the eventuality of his Hennessy win? Quite possibly so.
If Quixall Crossett had finally won a race under Rules, would that have "reinvented" him as a 3m novice chaser (or whatever make and shape of race it might have been), despite dozens of previous convinctions? Not really.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
- Total Posts 43
Madison Du Berlais shares the honour of not having won on his first outing upped in trip with…Tamarinbleu, The Package and Pablo Du Charmil. But the last three were all PLACED at huge prices, and Madison Du Berlais was fourth of seven in a Grade 2 on his first try at 3m.
The thread is just highlighting an observation, graysoncolumn, nothing more, nothing less. If you want to turn it into a cast-iron theory/system then that’s your prerogative.
I have a slight issue with David Pipe.
It seems he is too keen to put the blinkers on underperforming runners. I appreciate that this tactic has worked well on the odd occassion, but not for the majority? Any views?
The thread is just highlighting an observation, graysoncolumn, nothing more, nothing less. If you want to turn it into a cast-iron theory/system then that’s your prerogative.
In as much as the thread was marked "oppose at your peril", it looked like an incitement to regard what was posted as a trend analysis in the making, rather than mere observation. What followed did so on that basis. No matter, nobody died or anything.
If anyone out there
has
attempted to return level stakes profit / loss figures for Team Pipe horses when stepped up to, say, 3m, I’m sure plenty on here will be appreciative of the effort (not least given that the yard is likely to remain busy over the summer).
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I have a slight issue with David Pipe.
It seems he is too keen to put the blinkers on underperforming runners. I appreciate that this tactic has worked well on the odd occassion, but not for the majority? Any views?
Comply or Die?
like father like son eh.. but racing dont you agree is getting more competitive by the day. you cant bet horses blind from big stables anymore … the likes of the major Dick Hern and Guy Harwood even Cecils in the early days were notorious for heavy landed bets. Horses need time to build up for 3 miles you cant do it with an immature young horse.
I have a slight issue with David Pipe.
It seems he is too keen to put the blinkers on underperforming runners. I appreciate that this tactic has worked well on the odd occassion, but not for the majority? Any views?
I’m sure he’s not just doing it for the fun of it. I don’t think Dave’s the type to think to himself "well Comply or Die improved with the blinkers… so everyone must!" I’m sure there’s methods behind his…. apparant madness.
There are lots of ways to stop or improve horses. if you re atrainer who knows his horse at home can seriously improve for blinkers then he races him without ,get his handicap mark down and then go for a tilt. he can do it on distance too. there are thousands of ways!!!! punters going on form only are NOT on a level playing field at all. its much safer to bet in the bigger races where a trainer is less tempted to run down the field. check primarily that the horse goes on the ground(rule no.1) But its a nightmare out there in lesser races horses are going up some coming down. Horse racing odds are laughable when you consider all the facts of if and how and maybe s too much can happen !!!! at least you know the odds say if you went on a roulette wheel or blackjack but horses? keep your bets low thats my advise and never do ante post
I’m sure he’s not just doing it for the fun of it. I don’t think Dave’s the type to think to himself "well Comply or Die improved with the blinkers… so everyone must!" I’m sure there’s methods behind his…. apparant madness.
Agree. I just think that it may confuse the horses. I appreciate Comply or Die won the national with blinkers but look at some of his best horses performances with them on this season (Osana/Ashkazar).
In fact, the more I think about it…Does every David Johnson runner with David Pipe wears blinkers?
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