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Looked a very good trial for Seville and Carlton House, looked veryu classy the winner, World Domination does not look Group 1 class.
Very impressive that and did it fairly easily, educational mostly.
Match between the House and Recital, unless Pour Moi enters the fray
The race was run at a muddling pace but even so, World Domination looked slightly out his depth – which surprised me, considering Henry Cecil’s very high opinion of the horse. It was significant that Teddy Grimthorpe said after the race that World Domination was unlikely to run in The Derby and would probably be trained for the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot instead.
The winner, Carlton House, looked very good, and must have a major chance of winning The Derby. That said, I think Seville, of the runners in the race, was probably the one most unsuited by the muddling pace.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Rather inconclusive I thought. I can’t see why Carlton is now 2-1 for the Derby. Favourite yes but more like 4-1 as he hasn’t been tested by a strong pace.
A comment from Ryan Moore after the race:
"It’s shame, really, because nobody learned a great deal."
Typical Moore – sounds gloomy, but in fact insightful.
"It’s shame, really, because nobody learned a great deal."
Hopefully the trainers with multiple entries will have learned enough to keep a pacemaker in.
Shame it was so falsely run, but Carlton House was probably more unsuited by that than most. Still came through a gap under mainly hands and heels. Put his head down and looks a genuine racehorse. Excuse the getting on edge at the start and early on in the race, Stoutey will no doubt do some work on that. Trainer is yet to hit top form. Not much has come to light from other trials. For a staying type to do what he did in a slowly run race; I’d say 2/1 is fair. I took some 5/2 immediately after the race.
However, I do think Seville has been pushed out to an even more tempting 15/2 (Stan James). Got the breeding to win a Leger, let alone a Derby. "Had the run of the race", on the shoulder of the leader in a slowly run farce; being in the right place to steal it. Even though Seville travelled very well, he surely would have been suited by a stronger pace and lacked a change of gear. To my mind he’s still the number 1 O’Brien contender. Should be around the 11/2 to 5/1 mark.
With the possible exception of Seville’s as yet wayward stable companion Recital, and the possible non stayer Native Khan; this looks a two horse race.
Value Is EverythingCarlton House will probably be even shorter on the day considering he is the Queen’s horse and has beaten two of the other leading contenders (even with the slow pace), weight of money from once-a-year punters should be pretty big.
Seville will be going Leger eventually, no turn of foot, Recital clearly faster and, one would think, better than him.
Wasn’t a great Dante but can’t besmirch the winner at all, looked the part, but a totally different ball game for him in June.
Recital is an e/w lock-in, imo, winning if delivered latest of all.
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As Ginger said, you’ve got to like an inexperienced horse who pulls like a train for three furlongs, and then puts his head down to finish off a good horse like Seville, in a race hardly run to suit him. Little terrier!
And I have to say, that if HMQ can achieve her life ambition at the age of … loyalty forbids … then it will be one of racing’s greatest moments.
Carlton House has the right attitude, the right trainer, the right jockey, the right owner – and now, the right form to go with it. If he gets to the race fit and doesn’t pull so hard, I think he will win it.
1 Midday 11/10F
2 Sajjhaa 7/1
3 Timepiece 6/18 ran Distances: 2l, 4l, 2¾l
TIME 2m 10.05s(slow by 2.55s)
1 Carlton House 11/4
2 Seville 5/4F
3 Pisco Sour 40/16 ran Distances: 1½l, 2½l, 3¼l
TIME 2m 13.49s(slow by 5.99s)
I think we all know exactly what to do with the form.
Sometimes Zarkava, a horse wins despite the pace of a race, and can be rated higher because of that fact; not lower.
Value Is EverythingRight, and that’s fair enough, but all we know is that Carlton House has more pace than the others, something that’s not difficult to gleam from a quick flick-through his pedigree.
Surprised that Soumillon did not make mroe use of Seville, however The Queen’s horse overcame a funereal pace to cut down the O’Brien charge in a matter of strides.
World Domination was always going to striggle being pitched straight into a race like this following the one maiden run, especially against a proven Group race performer. I must confess my first thought after was would Frankel re-enter Derby calculations but connections have unfortunately scotched those thoughts.
It did seem that World Domination’s presence at the head of the Dderby market prior to today was influencing the future plans for Frankel. Now it seems the connections are reluctant to make a u-turn even though it would be the decision most race fans want to see.
- Total Posts 17716
1 Midday 11/10F
2 Sajjhaa 7/1
3 Timepiece 6/18 ran Distances: 2l, 4l, 2¾l
TIME 2m 10.05s(slow by 2.55s)
1 Carlton House 11/4
2 Seville 5/4F
3 Pisco Sour 40/16 ran Distances: 1½l, 2½l, 3¼l
TIME 2m 13.49s(slow by 5.99s)
I think we all know exactly what to do with the form.
So what happened to the stats approach that says that nothing that gets beat in the Dante wins the Derby? Did the O’Brien horse slip his bit?
Did he heck; he got murdered today by a horse that ran as green as grass,and I’ll be amazed if Seville even runs in the Derby.As hard as Carlton House pulled and threw his head around early, he actually settles before Seville, who also pulled for much of the early part of the race. People see the winner throwing his head around momentarily and assume he was mental for the whole trip. He wasn’t.
I’d rather be on Seville at Epsom.
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