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Not sure what to make of that – Passenger very unlucky in the run but once he did get out he didn’t pick up in the manner I was expecting for a horse that was travelling best of all.
White Birch for me has run the best trial – was last turning in and has made up a lot of ground and would likely have won in another 50 yds, he looks like another 2F will really suit him.
Well, that didn’t go entirely according to plan!
Well done winners – especially Jac!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Thanks Ian..that means a lot
Well done also to botchy and illavim.Flying Honours was always wide and didn’t seem to get into the race it’s a worry that he ran so badly and wondering if all is well at the Appleby yard..Think you can draw a line under that run Ian and Graham.
Thanks also Mike.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...First of all, well done Jac. Your eye never lets you down as far as looks and fitness go.
The winner was okay in my opinion, the 2nd one won a very very very bad trial at Leopardstown since the form has been let down on quite a few occasions.
I was all over Passenger, but once he had a clear passage he was very slow to accelerate. If he is to win a Derby or anything over 1m4f he needs things to go his way and also a rather long straight. I guess that’s why he looked so impressive in the Wood Ditton.
Apart from that it was a rather strange finish to Dante in which normally the horses tend to be strung out at the finish. The first five were within two and a half lenghts and even Frankie’s mount didn’t look like a G1 winner over 1m4f at all.
I guess there could be better trials to come, but which?
Oh, and by the way, I don’t associate any “Foxes” with a Derby win.
I actually think the front 5 will all be really good horses. The time was miles quicker than the Middleton which was obviously not truly run and the ground is quickening but the Dante will still end up the best on the clock on the card by some margin. Passenger was only having his 2nd run, he’s run a blinder.
White Birch looked the one to take from the race but that slow start is a big concern for me with Epsom in mind, bigger field, trickier course to navigate if you do fluff the start. What I would say is it pays a big compliment to Jessie’s colt who beat the horse White Birch beat in the Ballysax very easily.
I hope I’m in the minority because I do think it’ll prove to be as good a race as it looked beforehand and it’d be nice to get some prices about these colts going forwards.
Conventional wisdom would say that when two and a quarter lengths covers the first five home it can’t have been that good a race.
But there are exceptions – five lengths covered the first EIGHT in the 2014 2,000 Guineas and that form worked out insanely well.
Decent time today, and while it might be hard to rate the form that highly at face value, it might turn out a better Dante than the bare result looks on paper.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"That paddock eye of yours gets it right just about every time
Jac, well done to you and other winners I never realised that a ton could float down the Suwannee River
so quickly
Thanks Ruby and Graham.
The Foxes ran a great race.
In contrast the The Godolphin horses have run abysmal races at York so far..they have four fancied runners tomorrow it will be interesting to see how they fair.Like Ian I thought it was a decent race with White Birch the one who really would have been closer but for that tardy start, he came from last to challenge The Foxes for the race and he’s a seriously good horse.
I watched the race again and wasn’t impressed with The Passenger, I don’t think he liked the track and was nowhere near as impressive as he was at Newmarket. I thought he had every chance in the race but at one point seemed to be going up and down and getting nowhere. Jockey said he was denied a clear run but he had every chance if he had the turn of foot.
The joint 3rd horse Continuous was more eyecatching at the finish.I haven’t chosen a Derby horse as yet but Military Order rates high on the list.. I don’t think any of these would beat him but they are a good bunch and reckon a few will dot up at Royal Ascot along with Passenger on a straight track again and possibly a drop im class.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...“he had every chance if he had the turn of foot.”
100% THIS (as I said on The Derby thread).
A Derby winner in waiting would have overcome the difficulties, got up to win half a length and been value for five.
Instead he’s plugged on to dead-heat for third.
Nice colt, but it’ll have to be the worst Derby for years for Passenger to win it.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Hear hear to that Ian
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I couldn’t believe he was favourite on the Exchanges before the off. Thought he was totally overated today and excuses made where none were needed he just wasn’t up to it..
He’s a decent horse but not in this class.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I have to agree about Passenger. Right now he is not Group 1 class. Just look at the way Desert Crown won the Dante last year. Now, that was my result of a “proper” Dante Stakes.
Since Sir Michael’s horse have the tendency to improve at four or even five, I wouldn’t rule out a Harbinger kind of performance at this time next year.
Canberra ran as expected and delighted with the place lay, equally as delighted with the foxes, wd everyone else also, id say ittl work out a decent enough trial, the ballydoyle horse was the one for me to take out of it but not for the derby
A wee bit harsh on Passenger, folks. He burned a fair bit of energy in the first two furlongs, was travelling all over the rest of them up the straight – see how long he was on the bridle while everything else was under the pump. Kingscote moved left, then right, then left again, stopping and starting on a horse still cruising, despite constant balance changing and his inexperience. By the time the gap came Kingscote knew he’d blown it and just looked after him. I suspect there’s a ton of improvement there too.
It’ll cost them £85,000 now to supplement for Epsom. Stoute is not a squanderer, nor a man who watches geese under the impression they are swans. His next move will tell a big story.
We all saw the race, Joe – many of us more than once.
You’re clearly a believer, some others aren’t, they just think he’s a nice colt who can win nice races, just not The Derby.
Would supplementing him really tell a story?
Sounds like the sort of thing the media like to trot out tbh.
Any stats on supplemented Derby entries to a level stake?
Profitable or running to a loss?
That would tell me a far bigger story tbh.
Good luck if you’ve backed him, though.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“The Foxes
It’s a hot contest but he looked so fit last time out I have to back him.”Going back over this really interesting thread I wish I’d interrogated Jac more about what she fully meant by “really fit.”
Now I’ve grown to really respect Jac’s paddock comments here, but I’m also aware that asking people to clarify on forums can come across as trying to pick holes in what they’re saying – neither nice nor conducive to getting a reply.
So I just thought: “Jac thought it looked really fit last time out, so it might not progress that much from that.”
But I suspect what Jac really meant was this looked a colt who had progressed physically from two to three, looked in great shape and on good terms with himself.
Anyway, note to self – ask Jac more questions and hope she realises the underlying motive for each question is respect and NOT sniping!
What a judge this lady is.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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