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Dan Moore Chase 2021

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  • #1516547
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 17291

    Decent entry, and priced up by Paddy Power, and Betfair….

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/182/fairyhouse/2021-01-16/775452

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/dan-moore-handicap-chase/winner

    Recent Cheltenham raiders Chatham Street Lad, and The Shunter are understandably at the head of the market, and there’s no question there could be more to come from the pair of them.

    Last years third Goulane Chosen should run his race, and though a 12yo, carrying a couple of pounds less, there’s no reason he can’t be competitive again.

    Goose Man was a very promising sort two years ago, and we didn’t get a chance to see how much ability he retains, when he unseated early at Limerick. At 25’s, I think he’s an interesting outsider.

    Impact Factor couldn’t be on a better run, and there’s certainly a chance he could step out of this company, holding an entry in The Clarence House, and I could see him acquitting himself well there, but there’s obviously a fairly good chance he won’t travel. Should that be the case, then given the nature of his win at Fairyhouse in November, there’s more to come wherever he traps next.

    It’s that race at Fairyhouse though, that throws up two horses on my shortlist for this, Kildoderry, and Bel Ami De Sivola.

    Bel Ami did very little wrong that day, finishing runner up, and given the real possibility that he’ll meet Impact Factor again, it’ll be on much more favourable terms here.

    The same applies to Kildoderry with that weight swing, and there’s a whiff of “unfinished business” about him with this race. He ran on into a place in this last year, given far too much to do, and with tactics tweaked this time, he should be much closer.

    Both of them are fair prices.

    The next one on the shortlist is a bit tighter in the market, but the 10’s for Winter Escape is probably just about right. He’s a horse I’ve followed for a while now, but having performed well with Aidan Anthony Howard, the wheels came off when he made the much used JP transfer route to Ben Haslam‘s. He’s back with Howard now, and firmly back on track with a decent win at Listowel in September. He’s not overly hammered for that, and I can see him repeating it. I’ll definitely play him. I’m tempted to gamble and leave the 10’s, but I might just have a small bet first, and hopefully get bigger if anyone else prices it up.

    The last one on the shortlist, and the one I’ll surely have to bet early, is Pont Aven of Willie Mullins. Ran a screamer at Leopardstown last week, and given far too much to do, he was finishing with loads left. He looked the runner all the way down the back, and he was straight in the notebook. The opening 14’s looks extremely fair on that run.

    Shortlist of four then, and I want to bet every one of them. Winter Escape is definitely getting bet, but he’s closest to the right price, whereas the other trio, all look way overpriced.

    Not sure what to do. There’s perhaps the chance that Kildoderry is difficult to win with, given how often he’s held up, so it’s tempting to leave him out, but that’s a risky approach, as he’s got loads going for him here.

    I’ll watch the market with Bel Ami, and a chink in his armour is possibly his consistency, but it’s risky to omit him on that alone, as he looks very nicely treated.

    Early plays on Pont Aven 14’s, and Winter Escape 10’s look the best option then, but the other pair very much remaining on the shortlist. In the case of Winter Escape, I’ve no choice but to wait though till JP has runners again, following his recent bereavement.

    Pont Aven the first bet at 14’s.

    Bel Ami De Sivola 20’s
    Kildoderry 16’s
    Pont Aven 14’s
    Winter Escape 10’s

    #1517402
    Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 466

    This is a tough one Bob, but I’ll have a small bet here on Goulane Chosen 50-1 ew

    #1517441
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17291

    Crazy price that mate, couldn’t put you off at all.

    #1517516
    jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2937

    Will wait for dec’s, but the first two that caught my eye were The Shunter + Front View. Hardly snakes in the grass…..

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1517543
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17291

    Surprised at the price for The Shunter Jack. 11-2 very fair I reckon.

    #1517626
    Autumnal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 335

    Arvico Bleu ew to 6 places around 16/1, is my main selection, but I’ll definitely add Fan Dè Blues as a win backup.

    It’s a really good field this year

    #1517682
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17291

    Pont Aven out to 20’s now, but I’ll definitely top up, for all he looks like the stables second string. I still give him a fair chance here.

    As for backup, still can’t split Kildoderry or Bel Ami De Sivola, so maybe makes sense to have another look at Bel Ami as a possible late back up.

    In the end, I’ve went with Or Jaune De Somoza, who looks a very big price. He’s got bits and pieces that would see him involved.

    Pont Aven 20’s
    Or Jaune De Somoza 40’s

    #1517712
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4821

    ARVICO BLEU (16/1 available, 20/1 with Ladbrokes) top on my figures and form looks pretty solid. Went well for a long way in front last time before fading in closing stages.

    Second best is Daly Tiger (16/1 general, 20/1 with Ladbrokes), has to put a poor run last time behind him but otherwise form is right up to this standard.

    #1517776
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2078

    Arvico Bleu two fourths and a second in recent runs. Head to heads with Chatham Street Lad and the top weight. Ran in this race last year. Under Rachel Blackmore looks the sort to be staying on at the end if a change of tactics sees him handy but behind the pace. Gigginstown have five in this. Including Elliots 4, Mullin’s has two, O’brien 3, De Bromhead 2 The Shunter and Chatham Street Lad for the combination tricast and forecast is my current fancy but waiting to see if there are any defections as the day goes on.

    #1517784
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2537

    Entoucas ew 5 places

    #1517813
    DBRDBR
    Participant
    • Total Posts 520

    Hard race to pick one. Some times you fancy a lot of them, but not in here. So I also went for a big price. Goulane Chosen at 66/1 EW. He can be involved on his form of last February.

    Goulane Chosen 66/1 EW

    #1517846
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2078

    Entoucas has to come in for strong consideration having been in the money in ten of eleven starts.
    Goulane Chosen
    Chosen Mate
    Arvico Bleu
    Entoucas
    Chatham Street Lad
    Combination tricast/

    Goulane Chosen
    Chosen Mate
    Arvico Bleu

    Each way
    The shunter non runner.

    #1517850
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17291

    Good shout Rob

    #1517853
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4821

    Thanks VTC. My figures are starting to crack some of these Irish races! This one did it with a bit to spare.

    #1517854
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3604

    Wd Rob, great win.

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