January 5, 2021 at 23:17 #1516547
Decent entry, and priced up by Paddy Power, and Betfair….
Recent Cheltenham raiders Chatham Street Lad, and The Shunter are understandably at the head of the market, and there’s no question there could be more to come from the pair of them.
Last years third Goulane Chosen should run his race, and though a 12yo, carrying a couple of pounds less, there’s no reason he can’t be competitive again.
Goose Man was a very promising sort two years ago, and we didn’t get a chance to see how much ability he retains, when he unseated early at Limerick. At 25’s, I think he’s an interesting outsider.
Impact Factor couldn’t be on a better run, and there’s certainly a chance he could step out of this company, holding an entry in The Clarence House, and I could see him acquitting himself well there, but there’s obviously a fairly good chance he won’t travel. Should that be the case, then given the nature of his win at Fairyhouse in November, there’s more to come wherever he traps next.
It’s that race at Fairyhouse though, that throws up two horses on my shortlist for this, Kildoderry, and Bel Ami De Sivola.
Bel Ami did very little wrong that day, finishing runner up, and given the real possibility that he’ll meet Impact Factor again, it’ll be on much more favourable terms here.
The same applies to Kildoderry with that weight swing, and there’s a whiff of “unfinished business” about him with this race. He ran on into a place in this last year, given far too much to do, and with tactics tweaked this time, he should be much closer.
Both of them are fair prices.
The next one on the shortlist is a bit tighter in the market, but the 10’s for Winter Escape is probably just about right. He’s a horse I’ve followed for a while now, but having performed well with Aidan Anthony Howard, the wheels came off when he made the much used JP transfer route to Ben Haslam‘s. He’s back with Howard now, and firmly back on track with a decent win at Listowel in September. He’s not overly hammered for that, and I can see him repeating it. I’ll definitely play him. I’m tempted to gamble and leave the 10’s, but I might just have a small bet first, and hopefully get bigger if anyone else prices it up.
The last one on the shortlist, and the one I’ll surely have to bet early, is Pont Aven of Willie Mullins. Ran a screamer at Leopardstown last week, and given far too much to do, he was finishing with loads left. He looked the runner all the way down the back, and he was straight in the notebook. The opening 14’s looks extremely fair on that run.
Shortlist of four then, and I want to bet every one of them. Winter Escape is definitely getting bet, but he’s closest to the right price, whereas the other trio, all look way overpriced.
Not sure what to do. There’s perhaps the chance that Kildoderry is difficult to win with, given how often he’s held up, so it’s tempting to leave him out, but that’s a risky approach, as he’s got loads going for him here.
I’ll watch the market with Bel Ami, and a chink in his armour is possibly his consistency, but it’s risky to omit him on that alone, as he looks very nicely treated.
Early plays on Pont Aven 14’s, and Winter Escape 10’s look the best option then, but the other pair very much remaining on the shortlist. In the case of Winter Escape, I’ve no choice but to wait though till JP has runners again, following his recent bereavement.
Pont Aven the first bet at 14’s.
Bel Ami De Sivola 20’s
Pont Aven 14’s
Winter Escape 10’sJanuary 13, 2021 at 12:09 #1517402Lemons68Participant
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This is a tough one Bob, but I’ll have a small bet here on Goulane Chosen 50-1 ewJanuary 13, 2021 at 14:42 #1517441
Crazy price that mate, couldn’t put you off at all.January 14, 2021 at 09:05 #1517516jackh1092Participant
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Will wait for dec’s, but the first two that caught my eye were The Shunter + Front View. Hardly snakes in the grass…..
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!January 14, 2021 at 14:45 #1517543
Surprised at the price for The Shunter Jack. 11-2 very fair I reckon.January 14, 2021 at 22:29 #1517626AutumnalParticipant
- Total Posts 335
Arvico Bleu ew to 6 places around 16/1, is my main selection, but I’ll definitely add Fan Dè Blues as a win backup.
It’s a really good field this yearJanuary 15, 2021 at 14:42 #1517682
Pont Aven out to 20’s now, but I’ll definitely top up, for all he looks like the stables second string. I still give him a fair chance here.
As for backup, still can’t split Kildoderry or Bel Ami De Sivola, so maybe makes sense to have another look at Bel Ami as a possible late back up.
In the end, I’ve went with Or Jaune De Somoza, who looks a very big price. He’s got bits and pieces that would see him involved.
Pont Aven 20’s
Or Jaune De Somoza 40’sJanuary 15, 2021 at 20:24 #1517712robnorthParticipant
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ARVICO BLEU (16/1 available, 20/1 with Ladbrokes) top on my figures and form looks pretty solid. Went well for a long way in front last time before fading in closing stages.
Second best is Daly Tiger (16/1 general, 20/1 with Ladbrokes), has to put a poor run last time behind him but otherwise form is right up to this standard.January 16, 2021 at 07:45 #1517776sporting samParticipant
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Arvico Bleu two fourths and a second in recent runs. Head to heads with Chatham Street Lad and the top weight. Ran in this race last year. Under Rachel Blackmore looks the sort to be staying on at the end if a change of tactics sees him handy but behind the pace. Gigginstown have five in this. Including Elliots 4, Mullin’s has two, O’brien 3, De Bromhead 2 The Shunter and Chatham Street Lad for the combination tricast and forecast is my current fancy but waiting to see if there are any defections as the day goes on.January 16, 2021 at 08:39 #1517784Mike007Participant
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Entoucas ew 5 placesJanuary 16, 2021 at 12:18 #1517813DBRDBRParticipant
- Total Posts 520
Hard race to pick one. Some times you fancy a lot of them, but not in here. So I also went for a big price. Goulane Chosen at 66/1 EW. He can be involved on his form of last February.
Goulane Chosen 66/1 EWJanuary 16, 2021 at 14:05 #1517846sporting samParticipant
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Entoucas has to come in for strong consideration having been in the money in ten of eleven starts.
Chatham Street Lad
The shunter non runner.January 16, 2021 at 14:23 #1517850
Good shout RobJanuary 16, 2021 at 14:26 #1517853robnorthParticipant
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Thanks VTC. My figures are starting to crack some of these Irish races! This one did it with a bit to spare.January 16, 2021 at 14:26 #1517854greenasgrassParticipant
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Wd Rob, great win.
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