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What A Friend, Grand National
He may get shorter yet but gut feeling is to lay back for the stake.
1pt Lay, 13.5 (+comm), WAF, GN
Leaves a free bet with around 11.5 points return.
Green Destiny, Newmarket 14:00
Lightly raced 4yo. Halved in price when beating Agony and Ecstacy (subsequent listed winner) at Leicester in October. Trainer specialises with this type.
1pt win, 6-1 B365 (BOG)
Epsom, 1.40, 10f 3yo Handicap
1pt win, Trojan Knight, 5-1 (BOG) Bet365
Trainer has a tremendous record in this type of race. Won very easily at Ripon and looked straight forward. From a very nice family.
Epsom Derby, 4.00
0.5pt e/w, Vadamar, 20-1 (BOG) Bet365
Had a cut leg as a possible excuse when turned over in France last time. Very well thought of before that. Classy family.
Sandown, 14:25
Haggas seems to have his horses in peak condition at the moment, especially the lightly raced types. Anoint is related to penitent who the trainer knows so well and being a son of pivotal, ease in the ground shouldn’t be a problem. Not difficult to imagine this one proving well handicapped and going close en route to better things.
1pt win, 7-2 (BOG), Anoint
Sandown, 17:15
Swinburn is another trainer in decent form and Sandown has been the stage of a few gambles for these connections in recent times. Assuming that Dynamic Drive hasn’t physically deteriorated since last season, cut in the ground should enable him to get things back on track. As always with these connections at Sandown, money in the 10 mins before the off is likely to be well informed.1pt win, 12-1, Dynamic Drive
Leicester, 20:00
Roger Varian has made a great start to his career and his impressive strike rate suggests he is a man who doesn’t waste many bullets. Indian Emporer is his only runner at Leicester tonight and Neil Callan makes the trip as well. Normally I wouldn’t put too much weight behind this factor, but given the way the trainer seems to operate it looks significant and suggests the horse is well handicapped.1pt win, 9-2 (BOG), Indian Emporer
Kings Stand, Ascot
With the potential of GS ground tomorrow, Swiss Diva looks worth a bet. Drawn one, the rail is close by and both Tangerine Trees and Rose Blossom look early pace types giving connections of Swiss Diva options. David Elsworth has said she will only run if the ground is suitable.Swiss Diva, 16-1 NRNB
What a shocker. Well and truly on the canvas after the last few days.
The writing was on the wall this morning as regards the Swiss Diva bet, with the trainer quoted as saying she was short of fitness and the ground drying out at pace. On the plus side two ‘forgivable’ runs (draw at Longchamp) mean her otherwise progressive profile is somewhat hidden from view.
I’m still not able to talk about Plymouth Rock…
Anyway on to tomorrow –
Jersey Stakes, Ascot
This looks a very good renewal, presumably with some St James’ horses opting for this over a clash with Frankel. Fury is one of those and is a horse who the trainer has long considered top class. Sandown looked a prep run and subsequent comments by Fallon in the Weekender magazine back this theory up.1pt win, 4-1, Fury NRNB
Windsor Forest Stakes, Ascot
Staying on the ‘Haggas in form’ theme, Dever Dream has been targetted at this race all season. She has a few pounds to find with the principals but is young, improving (may improve for a mile – talented trainer thinks so) and possesses a sharp turn of foot. Presumably she is a PW pick as she was 14’s last night.1pt win, Dever Dream, 12-1 (BOG)
Royal Hunt Cup, Ascot
One on each side: Low is Sooraah, Haggas nominated this as her target at the start of the season so it’s fair to expect improvement from her second at this track in May. What’s more the winner of that race has won since, suggesting Sooraah may be well handicapped anyway off of 92. The talk around Green Destiny has kept this one out of the spotlight but she looks a potentially well handicapped horse.High is Julienas. Halved in price before finishing third on his comeback run this season. Took a while to get going that day suggesting 9f+ or a strongly run mile would suit. Didn’t travel particuarly well last time at Sandown and on the face of it was dissapointing. However, this race has been the target for some time and as such improvement on that run is expected.
0.5pt win, Sooraah, 30-1, Betfair (inc. commission)
0.5pt win, Julienas, 20-1Buckingham Palace Stakes, Ascot
Stiff 7f with cut in the ground should be ideal for Kalk Bay. The fact he was aimed at the Lincoln and has been kept back for this suggests a well handicapped horse. He was dissapointing at Doncaster but the ground was poor that day and this horse is likely better with cut anyway. Jockey booking a plus.1pt win, Kalk Bay, 10-1
Running total update
What A Friend, 0 (laid stake back)
Green Destiny, +6.50 (Backed BOG and surprisingly drifted from 6-1)
Trojan Nights, -1 (beaten by a nose)
Valdemar, -1 (may still offer something with cut in the ground)
Anoint, -1 (likely improver as he grows physically – family trait and patient trainer)
Dynamic Drive, -1 (unlucky in running, but very unlikely winner regardless)
Indian Emperor, -1 (head in hands moment)
Swiss Diva, -1 (Trainer said she wasn’t fit on morning of race, interesting when fit on soft ground)
Plymouth Rock, -1 (didn’t fire)
Fury, NRNB, 0
Dever Dream, -1 (not up to that level for the time being)
Sooraah and Julienas, +9.5Current running total (excludes outstanding bets): + 19 pts
Number of bets: 3 out of 21, with 4 seconds.
Still outstanding: Kalk Bay runs today and Zarkandar for Champion Hurdle 2012.Macs Power: Progressive sprinter with a decent draw, judged on yesterdays Buckingham. Was entered in the Golden Jubilee and also has a July Cup entry. Excellent trainer who has a good record in handicaps at this meeting.
Passion for Gold: Highly regarded horse who won Group 1 at Saint Cloud as a 2yo. Off a year through injury before showing signs of life in a nothing Goodwood race last time. May find this all too much after his injury but equally, is unexposed with a glimmer of top class potential.
Another 7mm overnight and heavy showers forecast all day..
Golden Jubilee Stakes, Ascot
Definightly relishes soft ground and is drawn stands side. Likely to grab the rail and go for home.1pt win, Definightly, 14-1, Will Hill
Newmarket 14:05
Drifted markedly on course, have to go in at this price.0.5 place/0.5 win Cape Classic, BSP
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