- This topic has 39 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 12 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Hi – I’m new to the forum and will be using this thread to post bets for the jumps season. All thoughts welcome!
Current bets –
Tanks for that, Grand Annual Chase, Cheltenham, 16-1. Recently nominated as the target for this horse. After a patchy 2009-2010, posted a decent second behind the potentially/already high class Woolcombe Folly at Chelteham. This was the same race that French Opera ran in before finishing a close second in last years Grand Annual.
Reading between the lines the recent hurdle run looks like getting a run into him without risking the mark of 142. The trainer will be desperate to win this more than most in the calendar.
Price is short enough considering the risks but if he stays sound and has Geraghty on board a price of less than half the 16’s looks plausible on the day.
Totesport Trophy – Newbury 12th Feb.
Soldatino, – Henderson obviously has an amazing record in the race and surely tomorrow has been the plan all season.
He traveled nicely enough at Ascot in January and made a menacing looking move 2/3 from home. He looked to blow up and the jockey didn’t use his whip once. In the Triumph he did, on several occasions. Also there was a marked drift even prior to him bolting to post – further evidence that it was all about putting him right for tomorrow.
The one negative is the the question mark over over his temperament. His trainer has been public on him being difficult to train and apparently a faith healer was employed earlier in the season
Hopefully Soldatino is more amenable to these methods than Ray Parlour was to Eileen Drewery.
His mark looks fair on the Triumph run but he’ll need another 5-10lbs improvement to be winning this. He has the profile (to my novice eye) but ultimately that and him being mentally right are where I have to put faith in connections and failing that higher powers still!
12-1, 35 place, 105 win
Nicto De Beuchene, Haydock Grand National Trial
Now with Victor Dartnall he is a brother of the 2008 national trial winner Miko De Beuchene. Beaten by West End Rocker at Newbury, he improved to score a visually impressive win at a rain drenched Sandown in January. He jumped like a stag so he did.
With stamina in the family, he has scope to improve for the additional 1/2 mile. Victor Dartnall has begun 2010 in good form and seems to excel with staying chasers. Another aspect worth considering is that a few ex Alner horses have improved this season (Aegean Dawn being the other obvious one) and NBD may have more under the bonnet yet. He will need it after being walloped with 14lbs for the Sandown run, but after a market move inspired by the masterful pricewise, 12-1 bog is good for me.
1pt win, 12-1 bog
Soldatino – a decent performance but carrying too much weight in the end. I felt the pace was slow – although i have never timed sections of races as others do. The first three were all prominent throuhout and a faster all round gallop may see Soldatino in a better light yet. A nice ride from Gerraghty who seemed to sense the slow tempo and attempted to re position the horse on the back straight, he also appeared to make his final move before several others around him.
French Opera may have waved goodbye to handicaps after his win yesterday. With some luck TFT gets to the GA in one piece as first choice and hopefully with Gerraghty on board. Can’t wait for the Cheltenham handicap entries to be announced next week.
I don’t think it was a poor selection. The chief handicapper considered him one of the best-handicapped horses in training.
And I doubt he gave his true running for whatever reason. Carruthers disappointed, too, and he’s a decent horse – though I think they’ve been running him over excessive distances, to maybe bring him back to 3 m and 2 in the Gold Cup. But that may be just a flight of fancy.
Mossley, Albert Bartlett Hurdle
Very speculative, but no forlorn hope. I’m choosing to accept that the Warwick form can be forgiven on account of the boggy ground that day. So going back to the Cheltenham run, it was solid and he won despite showing inexperience. To his credit, once Gerraghty asked him to win his race he got the job done quite nicely.
Mossley beat Join Together – conceding 4lbs – into second. That horse has respectable form and is best priced 10-1 for the same race. Without the Warwick run surely Mossley would be similar odds?
Bobs Worth will presumably be first choice if taking his chance but that isn’t yet certain – especially with Minella Class getting beat today. I really like Champion Court as well and will likely back him if the yard recovers from a bug and the horse is fit enough after injuring a foot. For now though, a small investment on the Henderson runner.
1pt win, Mossley, Albert Bartlett Hurdle, 25-1
Giorgio Quercus, Grand Annual
He jumped quite poorly, even considering his novice status, at Plumpton. Far be it for me to question the champion jockey – but I don’t think his jumping that day warranted being asked for a big leap at the second last and it was no surprise when the horse fell.
He was far more accomplished at Leicester and still has an Arkle entry.
Anyway, I fear this novice in the Grand Annual and want a small saver prior to his run tomorrow at Sandown. It will be an interesting race from a handicapping perspective as Pepe Simo (fav for GA) is also running. The handicapper may have a difficult job assessing the weights post race in what could be a messy affair.
For the purposes of the thread it will be assumed that the Tanks for that bet is at 1pt
Saver, Giorgio Quercus
Champion Court, Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
The story is simple with this one: an expensive purchase for connections new into the business and placed with a trainer noted by Timeform at the beginning of the season as one to keep an eye on.
His bumper defeat of, subsequent hurdle winner, Bears Affair was a sign of things to come and he routed his opponents when winning a 21f Novice race at Cheltenham in Novemeber.
Things didn’t go to plan at the Cheltenham trials meeting. He reportedly lost a shoe and more importantly the horses in the yard were found to be suffering from the human equivalent of a head cold. Subsequently shut down for a few weeks, the yard is back with a bang – winning with 3 of their 4 non bumper runners since returning (statistically meaningless but a positive sign nonetheless)
I’m told that this has been the target all season and he is viewed as a potential star of the future. Given that the money has come again for him I’ll take some of the remaining 12’s.
1pt win, Champion Court, Albert Bartlett Hurdle, 12-1
I’msingingtheblues, Grand Annual
Already with a saver on the Novice Giorgio Quercus, the 1pt stake on Tanks for That doesn’t really reflect the size of my personal ‘investment’. Since his shortening in price, my better half has made her position clear: she’s planned a shopping trip for March 20th. I’ve tried to tell her…
As a result, I am now seeing danger at every turn and a behavioral economist studying my actions would no doubt be calling me all kinds of nasty names.
I’msingingtheblues looks a potential gamble if ever there was one. A handicap winner off 147 for P Nicholls he hasn’t run anything like that since. He has been on my shortlist though, as he’s been outclassed in some races and badly handicapped in others. I’ve been waiting for the day he’s back in this kind of race on a winnable mark.
He was recently entered for a handicap at Doncaster and when I saw the 5 day entry I almost cried with happiness! The meeting was abandoned so we’ll we’ll never know.
He has some Cheltenham form and now races off 144. No one needs me to tell them that this yard know how to land one and there has been sustained support for him this week. He is a 9yo though and has to prove he’s still capable of winning – hence a saver over a bet.
I’msingingtheblues, 16-1 saver (definitely the last saver in this race
.Carole’s Legacy, Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase
She will have no problem with the ground be it good or GS and 3 miles is right up her street. Great jockey and will likely be spot on for this, the final race of her career.
Several at the top of the market need to improve their jumping and this track is fairly unforgiving where that’s concerned.
Too many dangers to mention, but if she’s in with a shout at the business end she wont go do down without a fight.
1pt win, 16-1 bog
Pandorama, Gold Cup
A very exciting horse and Long Run aside he looks the most promising of the ‘younger brigade’ in this years race. To my eye he won the Lexus with any amount in hand and connections believe he is the real deal.
Although not dogmatic on the subject, I want to be against the older horses. Heavy showers are now expected at Cheltenham on Friday and that will be to his advantage. If they don’t arrive he is an unlikely runner.
1pt win, 14-1 NRNB, Pandorama, Gold Cup
Hit the cross bar with Carole’s Legacy (much like Nicky Henderson for the entire day) – no complaints, she jumped superbly and never gave in. Bensalem was clearly well handicapped and produced an impressive performance. One more for tomorrow:
Soldatino, County Hurdle
Plots a plenty no doubt but this horse has class. Open to improvement with an emphasis on stamina over finishing speed.Judged on his Triumph win he relishes the hill and will hopefully add to the growing list of horses with previous festival form running well in 2011. There’s no doubt that the stats are against him in terms of weight carried. Tempted to wait until the morning as I suspect he’ll be bigger at some point tomorrow. BOG hedges this to a degree.
1pt win 16-1 (bog)
Soldatino -1pt (5th of 14), Backed 12-1, SP 6-1
Nicto De Beuchene – 1pt (PU), Backed BOG 18-1
Carole’s Legacy – 1pt (2nd of 20) Backed 16-1, SP 9-1
Zarkandar – +20pts (1st of 23), Backed 20-1, SP 13-2
Champion Court – 1pt (4th of 18), Backed 12-1, SP 14-1 (ouch)
Mossley, -1pt (2nd of 18), Backed 25-1, SP 12-1
Pandorama – 1pt (7th of 13), Backed 14-1, SP 14-1
Soldatino – 1pt (11th of 28) Backed 16-1, SP 11-1
Tanks for That – 1.5pt (18th of 23), Backed 16-1, SP 11-1Running total +11.5 pts (one winner from nine selections – deducted .5pt for savers in GA)
Shortened : 6/9
Drifted : 2/9 (inc BOG on NDB)
Avg price taken: 16.5-1
Avg SP : 11.3-1
Implied value obtained : 51%Notes : Most of the above was done from memory so there maybe the odd error in SP or finishing position. The sample is tiny and as such meaningless but my interest in racing now plummets until the Lincoln meeting, so it seemed a good time to take stock. Cheltenham was OK but could have been exceptional had Bob’s Worth been routed to the Neptune! One of those things.
Nicto De Beuchene was a poor selection – regardless of his run – in that I was looking too hard for a bet that day and had misgivings even before putting any money down.
I still think Soldatino has a another race in him but I may just be following him over a cliff. Although connections presumably had higher expectations for the horse at the start of the season, maybe something like the Lanzarote Handicap at Sandown is a suitable target next year. It’s possible I was slightly unlucky with Pandorama, but more likely that I was slightly stupid putting my faith in weather reports. Again, maybe a case of looking too hard for one and getting drawn in by the cheltenham hype machine. The horse did have a nice spin around Cheltenham though and would be of interest if next years race is on soft ground.
Initial thoughts on next year – Zarkandar is some horse. Maybe the CH will be too big an ask next year but long term his two pieces of form and breeding suggest he’ll be a contender at some stage. 14-1 for a horse who is being targeted at the race by a champion trainer and comes with a flawless juvenile CV is appealing. Of those at the front of the market PC and OW look strong candidates to go chasing, HF is champion but has showed himself to be fragile, who knows where we stand with Bincolular and Cue Card looks a horse for longer distances in time.
Weapons Amnesty at 25-1 looks an interesting horse for the Gold Cup next year. I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t have run a big race yesterday had injury not curtailed his season. Time for Rupert is also of interest at 20-1. His yard look woefully out of form to me and I half expected him to run as he did in the RSA.
EDIT – Soldatino was backed at 12-1 (not 16-1) for the Totesport Trophy.
Zarkandar, Champion Hurdle 2012
The above post explains the reasoning.
1pt win, Zarkandar, Champion Hurdle 14-1 (only Paddy Power left)
What A Friend, Grand National
Lots of questions to answer but decent ground would see him 12lbs or 16lbs well in if you take Timeform or Racing Post Ratings seriously. The race is getting classier and on good ground why not?
Scope for this one to get a fair bit shorter as the ‘Sir Alex with National runner’ bandwagon dominates media copy in the build up.
1pt win, 25-1 Grand National
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.