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Curlin, who won so well on Saturday, didn’t run as a two-year old, and no horse has won the KD who didn’t, since 1999. I’ll still have zummit on him, though.
Incidentally, I think it’s sad Penny Pictures hasn’t won since 2004, as I think it’s only a lack of tactical speed that’s responsible, and he should have won at least one or two big handicaps under both codes since then.
Cud be another Bellamy Road peak run before the Derby and surely the whole of Scotland will be on him :biggrin:
Exciting horse, trounced his fields so far, not been tested and not had his limitations exposed, the KD is the big test, but, he’s got to be on anyones shortlist for the KD imo
7-2 on the KD future market is a tad short but, if 9-2 maybe as low as 4-1 is available come D day, he’ll be getting attention along with his main danger Street Sense
(Edited by empty wallet at 11:14 pm on April 16, 2007)
The time to bet on him was before that race, really. The ATR correspondent could hardly have spoken of him more highly – not least in terms of his evidently untapped potential.
I’m furious now for looking him up on Google before the race and reading that nonsense about no 2 yr old, etc, etc. So what!
I have a lot of respect for statistics in racing normally, but there are occasions when it makes more sense to go against them. I don’t mean I’m sure he’ll win, or even reasonably confident, but at the 14s on offer, I should not have allowed myself to be swayed.
I haven’t even persuaded myself to bet on it yet, despite the thread header, because I think I’d rather have lost at 14s than win at 4s or less.
I know a lot of people won’t go along with that, but that’s my take. Value is important, as well as strike rate.
The "must have had a 2yo start" stat makes sense given that the KD is such a tough race and generally requires a battle-hardened horse to win it.
But the stat is useless as stated, i.e. when the last time a horse defied it.
What I’d want to know is stats like:
How many horses have attempted the KD without having a 2yo start?<br>How many of those won a major prep last time out?<br>How many of those had achieved a similar level of form or better in doing so?
When a young horse has had two or three races as a 3-year old, is a big lummox, but a machine just the same, I prefer to narrow my interest to the price I can get and the raw speed he’s already shown. But I get the points you’re making.
(Edited by Grimes at 12:30 am on April 17, 2007)
Grimes,
It’s actually since 1882. See article below, may be of interest.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/84062.html
(Edited by brendanr at 10:16 am on April 17, 2007)
This years Derby winner ran in Florida for his preps – you just need to find him ;)
Fascinating article – I hope on the mark – in today’s Mirror, on the Preakness, pointing out that, while beaten 8 lengths in the KD, Curlin lost a lot of ground going wide on all the turns. The writer fancies his chances and is of the opinion that the slightly shorter distance may also be in his favour.
He also thinks Circular Quay has a chance, having been a good juvenile, having been favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
However, of far the greatest interest to me, concerning the outsiders, was his comment on Flying First Class (D Wayne Lukas)."He was awarded a Bayer rating (America’s top rating service) of 107, when winning a £15k Maiden Special Weight Race(?) over six furlongs at Oaklawn in February. That figure is extarordinary considering Street Sense was rated 110 for winning the Kentucky Derby.
Unfortunately, The RP’s Spotlight laments that "unfortunately, he doesn´t find enough off his high cruising speed to puncture the top-class bracket, however." Still, at 33s, I’ll have a little on him, as well as Curlin. For all the good it’ll do me…
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I’ve had a sizeable interest in Curlin for tonight’s Preakness and notice that he’s been clipped in to 7/2 from 4/1 with some firms.
The Kentucky Derby was not run to suit Curlin, having hung wide and been denied a gap when the eventual winner and runner-up kicked clear. He also looked in dire need of the experience, so an improved performance definitely looks on the cards.
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 9:42 pm on May 19, 2007)
Curlin won then? I was distracted and forgot about it.
I think I got 9/2, LGR, but nae doot that’ll be because of my small stake.
(Edited by Grimes at 11:32 pm on May 19, 2007)
I’ve been refreshing DRFs results page for the last 10 minutes trying to find out the result, but VC have already paid up so I assume Curlin did the business.
Just checking You Tube for a recording…..
He did all right. I’ve just seen a replay on the box. He got first run, but also pulled out a bit more when challenged.
I won on him in his penultimate race as well. I believe it was the Mirrror that put me onto him that time. The coverage of big foreign races in their racing pull-put is like, well, like finding War and Peace in the Beano. But you may be too young to remember that.
If he’d won the KD, he’d have been the first winner of it not to have run as a 2 year-old since Noah were a lad.
As you say, it’s about experience, particularly against the best, as Nick Mordin opined in connection with Diamond Tycoon’s chance in the 2000.
(Edited by Grimes at 11:46 pm on May 19, 2007)
<br>(Edited by Grimes at 11:47 pm on May 19, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 11:54 pm on May 19, 2007)
From the race report on DRF.com it sounded as though Street Sense had done all bar cross the line, but was hunted down in the dying strides.
He (Curlin) certainly appears to have come on for his Derby run and given his style of running, and the fact that tonight’s race was the fastest Preakness in history, the Belmont looks his for the taking.
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