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This seems to be of paramount importance in identifying value selections, however where does one even start in regard to compiling tissue odds and how many punters are doing it consistently ?
Study a race and work out what percentage chance you think each horse has of winning and jiggle the numbers about until all the percentages add up to 100%.
Then convert the percentages to odds.
If any horse is a bigger price with the bookmakers or on the betting exchanges than it is on your tissue than in theory it is a value bet.
Here is a feature I once wrote on the subject while at The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing-how-the-bookies-take-your-money-1103397.html
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Good spot, Homer – I can assure you they were correct in the original newspaper print version back in the day, but this online version has a “1” that shouldn’t be there from 10/1 upwards.
Hence 10/1 “19.09%” should be 10/1 “9.09%” and so on.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Message me daftmatt and I’ll mail you a spreadsheet that converts ratings (timeform, racing post, etc) to odds . As a starting point for compiling a tissue it is quite useful.
My specialist subject. 😉
I’ve done it consistently for many years, daftmatt. Used to do this for every race I had a bet in. Then after 100% books stood me in good stead some of the value shouted at me after studying the form without the need for a 100% tissue. But up until stopping betting last year (moving house) it was still my usual way of going about identifying value…
And…
Value is everything. 😉
Don’t know how Cormack’s spreadsheet works but for me the Timeform Master Rating is only the start. Mere fact there’s so many other aspects of form that matter means in my experience ratings alone can not be converted to odds accurately enough to show a profit. Obviously if the horse does not act on the going / stay the distance / unsuited by the track or likely pace / temperament / worse jockey / trainer out of form / wrong time of year etc… Any one of these can mean the horse is unlikely to run to its master rating… Therefore the Master Rating only tells part of the story and percentages can not be based solely on the rating. Otherwise you’d only end up backing horses whose ratings might be high but are unsuited by race conditions.
…And it’s not a question of giving each aspect of form marks out of 10 either – because each aspect of form means more or less than than with other horses. eg For some very soft ground is vital, others may act on any ground. For some pace in the race is everything, others are effective in truly run and off a slow pace. For some recent form matters, for others time of year is important – eg Look up Aurora’s Encore’s record in the Spring prior to his win in the Grand National. So for some horses you might need ground to be an out of 100, another horse ground should be out of 10. For some pace will be his out of 100 aspect… and every horse will be different – so doing aspects of form “out of” is impossible.
How I go about things:
Better to develop an understanding of each horse’s whole chance. Looking at every aspect of form. All positives, all negatives, all that don’t matter – for EVERY horse. Making a note (sometimes mental sometimes on paper).Then number their chance: 1 for who I believe should be fav, all the way down to worst chance.
Then put what percentage chance I believe each horse has got. Remembering that eg Something I believe has a fair 4/1 chance (20%) must have half the chance of one I believe to be a fair 6/4 chance (40%).
Often the first try would add up to 108% and sometimes more.
Look again and again, however many times needed – gradually reducing the percentages by asking myself does horse A really have almost double the chance of F? Do F G and H together really have the same chance as B? etc. Until a 100% book is reached.
Together with my own knowledge – I am (or was before moving home) a Timeform Race Passes subscriber and I think producing consistent 100% books is extremely difficult if not an impossible task without a good form book. I won’t be betting again until am settled in in my new home and subscribing to Timeform once more.
Hope that’s been of use.
I’d say best of luck Daftmatt, but luck doesn’t come in to it. 😉Value Is EverythingIan,
Can understand the vast majority of your article except the often said theory of the more runners the less value is in the race for the punter. Why should there be less value in bigger fields?Yes, the over-round on the whole event will be bigger, but doesn’t the over-round go up only in relation to the number of runners?
Why wouldn’t any individual selection (in all probability) have the same over-round? ie In any competitive market a horse thought of by a bookies odds compiler to have a fair 40% chance (fair 6/4) will be offered to the punter at 11/8… And that’ll presumably be the same in a 15 runner race as for 5 runners. Similarly, in a competitive event any horse thought of as a 5% (fair 20/1) will have a mark up added and offered at 16/1 no matter if in a 15 or 5 runner race?Do you think there’s been any changes in the way bookmakers work since your article?
When I began racing in the 1980’s (before exchanges) I do believe outsiders were at an abnormally low price – in effect running for the bookmaker. Nowadays in order to be competitive I suspect they’re all with the minimum mark up.
Value Is EverythingThe article needs to be viewed in context, both the year in which it is written and the fact it appears in The Independent, not the Racing Post, and is thus aimed at the reader with the more casual, maybe fledgling, interest in racing.
My interest in the game in my early teens in the 1970s developed via The Guardian racing page, the cards and words of Richard Baerlein and, often more interestingly and niche, Chris Hawkins, who used to touch on mystical exciting-sounding things called “speed figures.”
I later evolved into buying the Sporting Chronicle, The Sporting Life, and becoming aware of the myriad tools out there to analyse the game.
I ended up doing my own time figures and my school friend Chris Wright, who I got into racing, went on to join Timeform in Halifax as Phil Bull’s time figures assistant (and he later succeeded him) while I went in the opposite direction to join Raceform in London before becoming a racing journalist.
Anyway, whenever I wrote for The Indy I imagined I was aiming the articles at myself as a curious teenager, soaking up new info like a sponge and keen to be drawn into this fascinating new horse racing world.
Times have certainly changed and, though at that point I had already worked for off-course bookmakers and done some on-course bookmaking myself, my knowledge has evolved too.
You never stop learning IF, that is, you are willing to listen as well as speak, and online read as well as write, when interacting with others, though being told stuff you knew 40 years ago can make that trying at times!
A big over-round is zero protection for a bookie if he’s made a rick, that is certainly true – there can still be value in big-field markets.
But most bookies I know like the bigger fields because of the bigger margin.
Though as stated in the article, the REAL over round is at odds laid, not on display.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"For starters you could take any rating you like, for instance an official handicap rating, Timeform rating, speedfigure, Proform power rating, a combination of a few etc, convert to a probability then compare and contrast to the SP.
There is quite a lot in that for horse racing due to a number of factors and the video below might be useful as an intro or give food for thought on where to go around modelling factors to generate a rating used to price
The issue with creating your own rating, while there will be definite educational benefit, the market will likely either have factored it or be primed to factor it over time. Taking a step back and understanding why and to what degree the rating is a factor for price in a particular market/markets will be of benefit which you should keep in mind more so than the pure scientific exercise, at least initially anyway
Very interesting stuff, Ian.
We obviously share an interest in times.
Sorry if my words offended, I often write trying to explain to the non-believer so sorry if my words offended you.
When I started getting interested in form as a teenager (early and mid eighties) think it was Stopwatch in the Sporting Life Weekender that caught my eye. Unfortunately my literary and language skills were never good enough for journalism. 😉 3/1 fitter for 30 years before giving work up.
Backed Slip Anchor ante-post @ 16/1 for the Derby (before his Lingfield jog) at least partly due to those Stopwatch figures. Then Timeform became the next interest and never looked back.
When at Raceform I don’t suppose you were ever a member of their West Berkshire Racing Club Quiz team? Held at that time at Newbury Racecourse. Bellingham and co were always difficult for us amateurs to beat.
Value Is EverythingI was at Newmarket on 1,000 Guineas days in 1985 when Slip Anchor clocked a time in the then named 1m2f Heathorn Stakes which compared well to Oh So Sharp in the Classic the same day.
I backed him ante-post for The Derby at 20/1 on the rails on the spot – so the parallels between us continue!
I became progressively less sociable after leaving university in 1984 so I was never a member of any Racing Clubs or anything like that.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Comparison with Oh So Sharp’s Stopwatch figure my exact reason for backing Slip Anchor; along with being a close relation of the year older Sandy Island and of course his trainer and jockey.
Am also a very poor mixer, found (still do find) it difficult in a socialising situation (pubs etc are out!). Borderline Social Anxiety. But made the effort to go to West Berkshire Racing Club meets. Easier socialising knowing the subject we’ll all be talking about and the Quiz master was a racing pal of mine too. Not that I mixed much.
At a WBRC Grand National Preview one of the panel couldn’t make it… and I was asked to stand in. Now that was nerve racking! Did me a lot of good though.
Value Is EverythingSorry to hear you have issues regarding socialising – sounds like you are combatting those issues well.
No anxiety here – I just don’t much like people generally!
I was also at Epsom on Derby Day 1985 – an unforgettable day.
As the Downs were packed with people and rooftop buses in those days and there was no big screen the runners were a bit hard from the Stands to distinguish in relation to each other coming down Tattenham Hill.
When Slip Anchor rounded Tattenham Corner and it was a good two to three seconds before his pursuers hoved into view there was a shocked momentary silence from the crowd – you would have heard a pin drop – then the most almighty roar as Slip Anchor was favourite, a proven stayer already at 1m4f and it was clear the race was over fully 3f out.
Wonderful day.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Good thread
Was having discussions this week with my brother about big fields/small fields
He was of the opinion that for example a 3/1 shot in a small field was more likely to win than a 3/1 shot in a big field.
I told him they had exactly the same chance if priced up correctlyBlackbeard to conquer the World
Really interesting stuff, here. I’ve often wondered how to take my punting to the next level and this thread has made for very informative reading.
I’ve been watching racing since I was six and betting since I was sixteen, but I never truly understood the intricacies of form, other than the obvious stuff (course, distance, going etc). Things like ratings, sectional times and speed figures were always alien to me. I’ve been trying to familiarise myself with these aspects of racing for the last couple of years, but have never been able to dedicate the necessary time to it. Being able to read these experiences is really useful.
And for what it’s worth I’m an introvert too! Must be a racing thing.
Good luck with it, Peter.
Everyone has their own take on it and, what works from experience for one successful punter, make make zero sense to another successful punter who deploys different methods.
But as long as your methods work, that’s really all that matters – no bonus payment for justifying your logic in heated Internet debates!
Though others may disagree, I regard racing as broadly a two-tier sport.
At the top, pattern races on the Flat and NH, form, time etc work very well.
In the murkier waters – Class 4 and below Handicaps – it’s the Wild West and the form book is often about as much use as a jug of milk for finding a winner.
I backed a 20/1 winner yesterday solely based on a jockey booking which indicated to me it was “having a go.”
Different methods for different levels of contest.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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