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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-01-25/884425
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/cotswold-chase/winner
L’Homme Presse the best of these, but stable not firing, and happy to look elsewhere.
Chantry House was a nice winner here last time, and happy to side with him here, fir all he’s not the type to necessarily back that up
Capodanno and Dashel Drasher the other pair that appeal, but not from an Antepost stance
Chantry House 8’s
Venitia’s form did take a drop, with fewer winners than she had been having when they were flying. However, her two most recent runners (@ 11/10 and 5/4) have both won. So the evidence is nowhere near as bad now. I’ll be waiting for “day of race”, but at the moment L’Homme Presse could be a good bet.
Value Is EverythingThis is a big run for Stage Star , hasn’t fired this year but has the course form , I’ll risk a p!ay
Would love to see Chantry House win. Good run last time but he’d be needing just about a career best to beat the top two. Unlikely at 11, only 6 left in, so not much value e/w. I’m not sure that Stage Star looks like the 3m1 would really bring out the needed improvement.
Gentlemansgame 3rd in savils looks as good or better than L’Homme Presse’s 3rd in King George, and at 8 I’d take his 7/4 rather than L’homme Presse at 5/4.
The 3rd in the Savils was probably as good form as the King George 3rd, Andrew.
However, Gentlemansgame probably ran to his best in the former. L’Homme Presse was not at his best so can improve quite a bit on the King George form. Gave the impression (again) that a right-handed track did not suit… LHM also gets 6 lbs from GMG here and LHM has a far superior record around Cheltenham. GMG has run there once and pulled up. L’Honmme Presse ran three times, two victories (one a Brown Advisory Grade 1) and a 4th in the Gold Cup, trying to take on Galopin Des. The only thing I think the Irish horse currently has the advantage on, is trainer form; but even that could easily change come Saturday.I agree with you on Stage Star. If this were a dead 3m on good ground then he might have come into my calculations more. But although Good good-soft in places now. Is likely to be pretty soft come Saturday looking at the forecast. I’m not convinced Stage Star is at his best on any worse than proper good-soft and even if effective on the surface it will place even more emphasis on stamina.
The one I’ve taken as a saver is Chantry House @ 7/1 for the very much in form Henderson team. Never be a main bet as has struggled to put two good runs together since being pulled up when (somehow) favourite for the 2021 King George. However, most of his better races have come at Cheltenham including this race in 2022.
The other two runners, Delta Work and Tommie Beau are seemingly after a lower handicap mark for their Festival target.
I Doubt L’Homme Presse will go off odds-against.
Value Is EverythingStage Star clearly hasn’t been himself since his Paddy Power romp in November 2023 and the last fence slip that day is probably to blame for what has been ailing him subsequently.
The question over whether he stays might be answered by his older half brother Lanspark who won all of his 4 races at around 3 miles and all on officially soft ground.
I think that Stage Star could run well also, but in a race that I’m finding hard to work out I’m going to go with Delta Work 22-1 ew. I do realise that this will be more than likely to lose a few pounds for March
Stage Star is the bet but I’ve ticked Delta Work to , Sean in the saddle a big positive and while Williams horse is the class act the yard form is a worry and means you have to take him on
Big L’Homme Presse fan and hope to see him win this. Won’t be betting, but I’ll be keeping tabs on a couple of these with a view to Aintree, namely Gentlemansgame.
Gentlemansgame is not a Cheltenham specialist and way too short at 7/2 imo. I went for Chantry House at 7/1 WIN and am also interested in Stage Star, but the stable is having a rather quiet time right now.
Time 23 seconds slower than standard.
Stage Star got an easy lead and set a slow pace that favoured his 2 1/2 mile pace. Charlie D nearly paid for letting Harry C dictate. Despite L’Homme Presse not being at his best, considering the pace the stayer did well to peg Stage Star back.Value Is EverythingThat was a very decent performance, despite a slow early pace, and L’Homme beat Gentlemans Game by a similar distance to Galopin at Xmas. The King George has been dismissed by some pundits but for me Banbridge and IEF hit a similar level to the Mullins monster over the festive period. Both of them should have a go at the Gold Cup , as should Paul Nicholls . Stage Star ran his best race for 15 months over this longer trip and with BMG missing the gold Cup, he should put this one in. The Owners Group would love to have a Gold Cup runner and it would add something to the race.
Nicholls said after today’s race that Stage Star not even likely to go for the Ryanair. Likely to miss Cheltenham, altogether.
He said that he might save him for Aintree.Stage Star seemingly needs to dictate from the front in order to run to form. I think Nicholls may well have seen what Protektorat did at Windsor and now knows Stage Star will be taken on in front – so won’t show his form if going to the Festival. Hence straight to Aintree. Wouldn’t be surprised if the French make a similar decision with Il Est Francais; missing the Ryanair for the Champion Chase.
Value Is EverythingSurprised they let Stage Star dictate that slow of a gallop to begin with and it almost blew up in LHP face and this form isn’t anywhere close to being good enough to win a Gold Cup – Gentlemansgame’s jumping was far from fluent and cost him many lengths even taking into account that he was also giving weight to the first two.
Stage Star is a one trick pony in that he has to be left alone up front in order to run his race (which he got today) – can see why they would want to avoid the Ryanair at Cheltenham but there is a chance that Grey Dawning will also miss Cheltenham for Aintree too, so he could find himself having a fight for the lead there too.
I still remain to be convinced that LHP actually wants the full Gold Cup trip (especially in testing ground). His Brown Advisory win was over 3m½f, the Rehersal Chase win was 2m7½f and he was beaten at Aintree over 3m1f and whilst today’s win was over 3m1½f they absolutely crawled today (clocking multiple 17 sec furlongs through the early stages), so it wasn’t remotely any kind of test of stamina.
GDC has stamina in abundance at the Gold Cup trip (another furlong longer than today’s race) and whilst he probably isn’t quite as quick at 2m5f anymore, anything at 3m and above he is deadly and I simply don’t see any of his likely rivals being able to outstay him up that hill.
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