January 6, 2008 at 14:10 #6174
Correct score betting and first scorer betting, are, IMO, a bookie bonus. It’s hard enough to predict who will win a match without trying to predict what the score will be. It’s the equivalent of betting by how far a horse will win a race.January 6, 2008 at 14:32 #133678crizzyParticipant
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I totally agree with that and the odds always seem a bit skinny for something so hard to predict. Don’t you think?January 6, 2008 at 14:57 #133682MikkyMo73Member
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I would also completely agree.
You might think I’m contradicting myself becuase my Betfair blog’s often have correct score predictions in – but that’s because I get asked to refer to these markets.
For me a football match is quite simply a three horse race. Horse A = the home team, Horse B = the away team and Horse C = the draw.
In a three horse race you would never be confident about ‘Horse A’ winning, and winning by more than 5 lengths – and as David rightly says, it’s exactly the same in football. You would never think the home team are a good bet to win, and by a scoreline of 4-0 – though you might think it, you could never be confident.
I don’t mind predicting how many goals there could be in a match. For example, two very attacking teams might produce at least 3 or 4 goals – but still, you could never be completely confident.
My personal preferences in football are just selecting the outcome of the game and I also like the Half Time-Full Time markets.
Good post David, it will be interesting to see if anyone agrees with us.
MikeJanuary 6, 2008 at 15:09 #133688SwallowCottageMember
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Yes I agree. I suppose it appeals to punters who are trying to win a lot of money from a relatively small stake in a short period of time. It is probably more exciting this way but I have never bet on this type of wager and never will. It’s like trying to get the tricast up in the Stewards Cup.
I concentrate on laying teams not to win which means making a profit at the pace of a snail and is less exciting but arguably more effective in the long term.
I have tried betting on the number of goals in a match – less than 2.5 or more etc but whenever I do this, the number of goals are the opposite to the amount I expect……football is very unpredictable sometimes which is maybe why it has become so popular.January 6, 2008 at 15:33 #133693MikkyMo73Member
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You’re right Peter, I’m never going to predict how many goals in a game ever again .
I like your reference to the tricast in the stewards cup – it’s so accurate .
First goal scorer market is another bookies benefit. Statistically strikers will score first more times than the other players, but in any one game absolutely anybody can score and there is no form to it whatsoever.
In a 20 runner horse race you can assess each runner, the conditions, the likely pace and things like that.
In football you can’t assess the 20 outfield players becasue absolutely anything can happen. Who can predict the right back making a surging run and smacking one from 20 yards, who can predict the 6ft6 defender getting a rush of blood and getting on the end of a cross, who can predict the star striker pulling a hamstring and passing the penalty to the left back etc
And like you Pete, whenever I used to do these bets, the complete opposite happened. If Owen had scored 6 in his last 3 games and was playing alone up front – you could guarantee the centre back would score first if I backed Owen – but I guess it’s why I love football. As for punting, I will stick to trying to back the winner of a match thank youJanuary 6, 2008 at 18:06 #133739
Totally agree with all posters – a complete waste of time as far as I’m concerned. Could never understand why anyone ever bothered with the "sections" part of "fixed-odds" coupons either.January 6, 2008 at 23:28 #133777FriggoMember
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Totally agree with all posters – a complete waste of time as far as I’m concerned. Could never understand why anyone ever bothered with the "sections" part of "fixed-odds" coupons either.
I agree with the notion of this, could never understand it seeing as the prices are identical to the long list. Upon asking sections punters their motive, I generally got one of two responses:
1: The guaranteed odds (i.e. 1 from each section = 22/1), which of course is just the bookmakers’ carrot in front of the nose to those who don’t even know where they are. This is the reason given by the clowns (or the ‘profit margin’ as I believe the bosses call them!) who visit shops only on a Saturday for their weekly 46-fold ‘donation’.
2. The challenge. The games in the bottom couple of sections are obviously always tough, and some see that as the incentive for small stakes. Fair play to them, although it wouldn’t be me.January 15, 2008 at 21:08 #135522GetzippyParticipant
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I don’t agree at all.
If you follow a quality striker that bags 20 goals a season in his league, average price between 4/1 & 5/1 you are going to do well.
Of course it’s a lottery to an extent – but I still think the form counts for something – Like a horse on a win steak sometimes a player can be hot.
I agree about the odds for 1st goalscorer/correct score double not being great, but I still think they are worth a shot in the right match.
I do not think footballers are anymore unreliable than horses imho.
ZipJanuary 15, 2008 at 21:30 #135529
Still have reservations about first goal-scorer gambling. If a striker scores 20 goals a season (and you’ll only know that with hindsight) – that’s only part of the story in assessing if 4 or 5/1 is value.
First of all, does he score 1 goal a game or, sometimes 2 or 3. In other words, you need to assess how many GAMES per season he scores in.
Then, on average, it’s even-money that his team or the oppostion will score the first goal. (That’s not even taking a nil-nil draw into account) So , I’d say the true price of a first goal scorer for a 20 goal a season player is
a) The average number of games he scores in. Let’s say for a top player it’s 1 in 3.5 then
b) Double it (to take in to account the evens about the opposition scoring first.
So, I reckon you’ve got to be getting about 8/1 a top scorer scoring first to have at least any long term chance of profiting at first scorer betting .
These are just my top-of-the-head figures; I’m prepared to be proved wrong as It’s just not a market I ever really contemplate.January 15, 2008 at 22:34 #135555
I think van Nistelrooy scored 4 in one game after Gary Neville (or similar) had opened the scoring! How pissed off would you be if you’ld backed Ruud to score first.January 16, 2008 at 13:26 #135685GetzippyParticipant
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Fair point about how the 20 goals are worked out.
In an ideal world bookies would price footy reasonably – but do they do that in the main? Should no goalscorer odds be 8/1 – 9/1 – I haven’t seen a 0-0 on telly for ages.
Could it not be argued that peeps who have backed against Tottenham’s defence have done very well this season, so far….
ZipJanuary 16, 2008 at 15:54 #135744
n an ideal world bookies would price footy reasonably – but do they do that in the main? Should no goalscorer odds be 8/1 – 9/1 – I haven’t seen a 0-0 on telly for ages
Quite true bookies don’t price up footy reasonably. Betfair are somewhat better on 0-0 – if Betting Exchanges are for you – although there is commision on winning bets.
Bookies will always be overround (108 – 112%?); Betfair footy markets are nearly always around the 100% mark – so correct score / first scorer markets may be better on the exchange than on Bookies coupon.
Spurs defence may be cra@ – but once that became apparent, I’d suspect that was reflected in the prices both with bookies and exchanges.April 11, 2008 at 09:11 #157365
In light of Cristiano Ronaldo’s performances since Christmas, I thought I’d have a look and see if it is/was profitable to back him blind to be first goalscorer.
So far this season, he has started 39 matches for Man Utd. Of those 39, he has scored 1st in 14 of them which is pretty impressive. At average odds of 3/1, you would be 17pts up at this stage.
Since the turn of the year, he has played 19 times and has scored 1st on 9 occasions, again showing a LSP of 17pts at average odds of 3/1
His form since 01-Mar though has been unbelievable, whereby he has scored 1st in 6 of the last 8 matches and these 8 matches alone show a LSP of 16pts, again at 3/1 average odds.
From these figures, I still don’t think it is hugely beneficial to punters to be betting in this market unless you decide that Ronaldo / Torres / Drogba / Adebayor or whoever is going to be YOUR man for the season and even then you would have to be very lucky for them to have such a hot streak as Ronaldo has. The last time I can remember this happening was with Cantona in 1999 when I think he scored first on about 8 occasions at the end of the season.
You’d also need balls of steel and a decent bank as Ronaldo kicked off the season with 5 losses and then only 1 win in the next 6 bets which would have seen you down 8 pts after only 11 games. Add his sending off against Spurs? into the equation and you would have been forgiven into think that 2007/08 wasn’t going to be his year.
Utd vs Arsenal
Ronaldo is 9/2 to score first against Arsenal this weekend with Skybet (3/1 with Ladbrokes & Betfred). Skybet are also going each-way 1/3 odds 1,2,3 which is an effective 6/4 that he will score 1 of the first 3 goals. Given his strike-rate to date and especially over the last 2 months, this actually looks very generous.
Or does it?April 12, 2008 at 09:35 #157508
David – Interesting stats re. Ronaldo. He’s currently 4.3 (before commission on Betfair) to score first tomorrow (although there’s hardly any money in that market yet and I’d be surprised if those odds don’t lengthen).
Maybe Ronaldo proves zippy right! Even so, it’s a market I’ve always steered well clear of.April 13, 2008 at 11:50 #157644HimselfParticipant
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An alternative would be to back a particular player/s from one or both teams to score at anytime during the ninety minutes.
Certain players rarely, if ever, score – so they can be discounted. Concentrate on teams in form and who have a good home goal scoring record and in particular, players who are known goal scorers.
I mean, how difficult can it be?
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