February 11, 2012 at 10:48 #20963
Back again this year for more punishment.
First one of the year today –
Wolverhampton 6.50 Zaina [b:2ne1lbex]2nd 11/4[/color:2ne1lbex][/b:2ne1lbex]February 11, 2012 at 11:56 #390773thehorsesmouthParticipant
- Total Posts 5551
Good luck!April 4, 2012 at 22:52 #399329
Second selection of the flat year –
Folkestone 4.40 Cotton Trader
Only back if 9/2 or SHORTERApril 9, 2012 at 21:03 #399825
Tuesday 10th Apr
Southwell 4.05 Red Orator
Pontefract 4.25 Splendid Light
Southwell 4.35 Jeu De Vivre
Eaxh only to be backed if sp <5/1April 20, 2012 at 22:36 #401597
Sat 21st April
Newbury 1.30 Ibtahaj
Newbury 3.45 Fury
Thirsk 2.40 Ta Ajabb
Usual rule- only back if 9/2 or LOWER.April 29, 2012 at 06:53 #402497
Monday 30th Apr
Kemp 2.45 Mutafaakir
Wolv 8.25 Uprise
Windsor 7.10 Big Creek
Only back if <5/1May 2, 2012 at 21:33 #402852
Thursday 3rd May
Brighton 5.05 Heavy Metal
Back if 9/2 or lower.
Thank goodness for that (or words to that effect)May 2, 2012 at 22:55 #402858GingertipsterParticipant
- Total Posts 28471
Usual rule- only back if 9/2 or LOWER.
Couple of years ago you pointed out to me that my staking plan (which has to do with chance of winning and how much value I believe is in the bet) did not increase stakes enough when there was more value in the bet. Listening to you has made a real difference to my profit. Many thanks.
I’m therefore surprised you have a rule ensuring you’re not betting at all when the value is at its best. Why?Value Is EverythingMay 5, 2012 at 10:55 #403097
Good question GT.
The short answer is that the selections on this thread are based entirely on a particular system.
The results over many years indicate that the time to bet on the selections thrown up by the system is when they start at less than 5/1. When the system throws up horses at greater odds they have a poorer record. Although in some years they still show a profit, it’s much more inconsistent and patchy.
So, in short, the best indicator that these bets are ‘value’ is when they start shorter! Sounds counter-intuitive doesn’t it? I suppose you could say it’s akin to ‘following the market’, although that’s not the basis of the system.
In addition, shorter priced selections keep the black swan of a horrendously long losing run at bay a little.
(btw – this system takes no account of ‘form’, the opposition, the going or the distance. In short, nothing about the horse itself is taken into account at all. You’d be horrified GT )May 5, 2012 at 10:58 #403098
Saturday 5th May
Thirsk 4.0 Farhh
Again – only bet if less than 5/1May 5, 2012 at 11:14 #403108GingertipsterParticipant
- Total Posts 28471
Nothing wrong with a system that identifies value at short odds Corm.Value Is EverythingMay 5, 2012 at 12:42 #403124
Aye – if only it DID GT!!!
Early days yet though, long season ahead.May 5, 2012 at 12:49 #403127The Ante-Post KingParticipant
- Total Posts 8703
(btw – this system takes no account of ‘form’, the opposition, the going or the distance. In short, nothing about the horse itself is taken into account at all. You’d be horrified GT )
Coming from anyone else I would be horrified too!May 5, 2012 at 23:59 #403200
Sunday 6th May
Salisbaury 2.20 Royal Peculiar
Newmarket 5.35 Deia Sunrise
Usual rule – only back if 9/2 or shorter.May 7, 2012 at 09:28 #403375
Windsor 4.35 Falcon In Flight
Back if 9/2 or shorterMay 7, 2012 at 21:24 #403479
Southwell 4.15 Peter Anders
Back if 9/2 or lowerMay 8, 2012 at 20:25 #403581
Southwell 1.55 Trail Of Tears
Southwell 4.35 Wicked Spirit
Southwell 5.05 Quiet Appeal
Chester 4.45 Gabrial The Great
Back any/all if 9/2 or lower
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