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Cormack’s 2012 Flat thread

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  • #20963
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Back again this year for more punishment. :(

    First one of the year today –

    Wolverhampton 6.50 Zaina [b:2ne1lbex]2nd 11/4[/color:2ne1lbex][/b:2ne1lbex]

    #390773
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5551

    Good luck!

    #399329
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Second selection of the flat year –

    Folkestone 4.40 Cotton Trader


    Only back if 9/2 or SHORTER

    #399825
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Tuesday 10th Apr

    Southwell 4.05 Red Orator


    Pontefract 4.25 Splendid Light


    Southwell 4.35 Jeu De Vivre


    Eaxh only to be backed if sp <5/1

    #401597
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Sat 21st April

    Newbury 1.30 Ibtahaj

    Newbury 3.45 Fury

    Thirsk 2.40 Ta Ajabb


    Usual rule- only back if 9/2 or LOWER.

    #402497
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Monday 30th Apr

    Kemp 2.45 Mutafaakir

    Wolv 8.25 Uprise

    Windsor 7.10 Big Creek

    :(

    Only back if <5/1

    #402852
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Thursday 3rd May

    Brighton 5.05 Heavy Metal


    Back if 9/2 or lower.

    Thank goodness for that (or words to that effect)

    #402858
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Usual rule- only back if 9/2 or LOWER.

    Couple of years ago you pointed out to me that my staking plan (which has to do with chance of winning and how much value I believe is in the bet) did not increase stakes enough when there was more value in the bet. Listening to you has made a real difference to my profit. Many thanks.

    I’m therefore surprised you have a rule ensuring you’re not betting at all when the value is at its best. Why? :?

    Value Is Everything
    #403097
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Good question GT.

    The short answer is that the selections on this thread are based entirely on a particular system.

    The results over many years indicate that the time to bet on the selections thrown up by the system is when they start at less than 5/1. When the system throws up horses at greater odds they have a poorer record. Although in some years they still show a profit, it’s much more inconsistent and patchy.

    So, in short, the best indicator that these bets are ‘value’ is when they start shorter! Sounds counter-intuitive doesn’t it? I suppose you could say it’s akin to ‘following the market’, although that’s not the basis of the system.

    In addition, shorter priced selections keep the black swan of a horrendously long losing run at bay a little.

    (btw – this system takes no account of ‘form’, the opposition, the going or the distance. In short, nothing about the horse itself is taken into account at all. You’d be horrified GT :shock: )

    #403098
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Saturday 5th May

    Thirsk 4.0 Farhh

    Again – only bet if less than 5/1

    #403108
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Nothing wrong with a system that identifies value at short odds Corm. :wink:

    Value Is Everything
    #403124
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Aye – if only it DID GT!!!

    Early days yet though, long season ahead.

    #403127
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8703

    (btw – this system takes no account of ‘form’, the opposition, the going or the distance. In short, nothing about the horse itself is taken into account at all. You’d be horrified GT :shock: )

    Coming from anyone else I would be horrified too! :lol:

    #403200
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Sunday 6th May

    Salisbaury 2.20 Royal Peculiar

    Newmarket 5.35 Deia Sunrise


    Usual rule – only back if 9/2 or shorter.

    #403375
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Monday –

    Windsor 4.35 Falcon In Flight


    Back if 9/2 or shorter

    #403479
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Tuesday

    Southwell 4.15 Peter Anders


    Back if 9/2 or lower

    #403581
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Wednesday

    Southwell 1.55 Trail Of Tears

    Southwell 4.35 Wicked Spirit

    Southwell 5.05 Quiet Appeal

    Chester 4.45 Gabrial The Great

    Back any/all if 9/2 or lower

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