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I was wondering when that cut off stage was Autumnal so thanks for that.
I’m hopeful that Major Dundee is still going to be left in. He’s still the one o think is the one who’s progressive and in off a nice weight.
I’ve also still got pokes and dips on various others. Galloping bear, autonomous cloud, pats fancy, the big breakaway.
Major Dundee taken out of this now.
Not too much damage done but disappointing nonetheless.
Monbeg genius, the galloping bear, big breakaway, autonomous cloud the ones bet so far.
This pats fancy is stoking my interest now. IIRC he was well fancied for it this time last year and pulled out the morning of the race. Entered to run at Chepstow on Wednesday.
Wonder if they’ll run Highland Hunter in this now after his early unseat today in the Beecher.
I could absolutely be tempted at 25’s!
My ew 2…
Monbeg Genius 10-1
Autonomous Cloud 20-1Trainer of AC was going to skip Chepstow for the Classic Chase but it looks a strong possibility his horse will get in now so he wants to go to Chepstow instead.
Any talk of Skelton’s Galia Des Liteaux coming here?
Highly thought of and loves heavy ground. Comprehensively beat Nicolls Complete Unknown back in January who went off 4/1 favourite for the Hennessy lately off 152.
I’ve had some 50s. Though I suspect a race like this may really suit I have my doubts that it is the next step for her.
“Any talk of Skelton’s Galia Des Liteaux coming here?”
Was one i looked at not seen anything up to now about her running here.
Pajo great shout if she was to show up + i’d be on
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!A few meanderings from me about the dominant stallion in this year’s race.
SHANTOU
The stallion has the top two in the market for the Welsh National at the time of writing plus four other entries.
The stallion’s progeny has a fantastic overall record at Chepstow.
127 runs in 122 races
28 wins @ 22.05%
34 placed @ 48.82% win/place.Only three have gone to post in the Welsh National itself with none of them completing (2 x PU and 1 x Fell).
Furthest distance a Shantou has won over is 3m 6f (Wounded Warrior).
Record between 3m 5f – 4m 0f (1.5f either side of race distance).
56 runs in 50 races
4 wins @ 7.14%
8 placed @ 21.43%The top two in the market do boast having dam stallions that have sired the winner and a runner up of the Welsh National in their own right.
There is a little bit of doubt around Shantou over this distance. The four mile + record is not great with 0 wins from 34 tries but this race could possibly be within the compass of a well handicapped one.
After my poor bet on Screaming Colours, I was going to wait for the day for any more, but I can’t leave the 40’s for Cloudy Glen.
He’s a horse I’ve bet a few times, and he’s ran well enough the last couple of runs.
Getting close to the mark he won The Ladbrokes Trophy off of, and happy with 40’s
If he doesn’t go, I’ll probably leave it at that
Cashed Out
He’s another to catch the eye VTC. But he’s largely ran abysmally the last 18 months.
It almost feels like a bet where you have to back him just in case he bounces back to form. But after he’s been pulled up a mile from home you’re left cursing your own stupidity!
“Furthest distance a Shantou has won over is 3m 6f (Wounded Warrior).”
Well, how many races in excess of 3m6f are there?
The Cork National is 3m4f, the London National and the slog that is the Haydock National Trial a bit further. Classic at Warwick, b365 (Whitbread) and Iriah Nationals are 3m5f. Grand Steep is 3m6f.
That leaves the Eider, the Edinburgh, Scottish and Midlands Nationals and the Grand National. Plus the odd hunter chase probably.
The most recent winner of the Welsh National shared a sire with an Eider winner, but not all winners have the same sort of profile. Two time winner Mountainous, for example, is by Milan- who gets stayers but no others who have won over this far. Native River never won over further (beaten in the NH chase at 4 miles) and Indian River’s other progeny, whilst stalwarts of distance chases, didn’t win over extreme trips.
“The four mile + record is not great with 0 wins from 34 tries”
Two of those 4m+ chases tend to have large fields and the Midlands and Eider middle sized fields so no winners out of 34 isn’t a shocker and probably not statistically significant.I think Shantous have a (probably deserved) reputation for having dodgy wind which would make your concerns about the trip correct- by the time they get tried over the distance, their wind might be on the verge of failing- but they don’t lack stamina per se and I think if my selection was sired by Shantou I would just check how it finished its most recent race (over whatever trip) and if it had finished strongly enough I wouldn’t worry about distance.
Monbeg Genius – held up during the Coral Gold Cup and seemed to find the pace a bit too hot at times but I liked how he stayed on late, which bodes well for the climb up the straight at Chepstow
Super Survivor – related to Best Mate, stays 3 miles but seems to have been tapped for toe in his last two races; current price is wrong but nice if you’re on at bigger odds
Nassalam – Discounting Cheltenham, doesn’t appear to have run a bad race over fences on soft ground. However, I have doubts about him staying ( or at least out staying others )
The Big Breakaway – four poor runs since finishing second in last year’s renewal and only a pound lower. Infuriating yard for form readers
The Galloping Bear – might win, might not make it past the first circuit
MG looks a likely winner but I’ll also have Blackjack Magic, as his form is decent and the yard are going well
I looked at blackjack magic as well Mark but he’s down to run at Ascot Friday and already jocked up. That 25’s would be insane if this was his target.
I have to take that 16-1 on The Galloping Bear, even allowing for recent disappointments
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