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http://www.racingpost.com/horses/course … ?crs_id=23
The RP standard that is 9 seconds faster than the course record is for 2yos over 1m2f120y.
Doubt many of these will be "truly run".
Also doubt that many of these will be run on Good or faster ground, in October.
Also, the RP standard is for mature horses rated 100 (I think). So the RP standard remains the same, whether you are looking at a 2yo, 3yo or older race.
Not absolutely sure what terms RP employ, but a standard time is meant to be achievable by a mature horse of a given ability – say 100 rated – carrying a given weight – say 9-0 on the Flat – in a truly run race, and as such they should be transferrable across courses.
Therefore, if a course customarily produces winners well below the usual level of ability it will be reflected in the standard time being much closer to, or even ahead of, the record time. This may also be the case where standard times have been estimated at a new track, or a track with a new surface, and it is considered that the races already run there are not as fast as they could be.
Some time analysts do use only by-course standards, which are sufficient to create meaningful timefigures but not ground comparisons across courses without a further adjustment, though not RP to the best of my knowledge.
I am just in the process of building a database containing 16 years of results, which will take another week to complete, so I can work out the correct standard times for each course in the UK and Ireland.
So far my database covers some 90,000+ races and climbing.
When I come to work out the standards for 2yo’s etc throughout the months of the flat season, hopefully they will be the most accurate about.When I have read about people stating that you need a least 25 results of each distance to compile standard times my head drops, I will be using 100+ to achieve accurate times.
What is all this nonsense about statistics ? Times,speed ratings,even handicap marks…all a load of codswallop.
If they were any guide at all it would be when one particular horse raced on the same course for a return visit,under the same conditions,with the same weight,with exactly the same split times etc etc etc.
There would inevitably be a dozen or more stewards enquiries every day concerning improved form and/or non triers.
My advice would be that far more important clues can be found in the going,the draw,the course, even the betting ! You are surely not going to follow a horse with a top time rating which is drifting like a barge over a new distance.I only enjoy my successes because I enjoy the red herrings and the little grey cells,mes amis. There is no single aspect of form which is unimportant, or even singularly important but I would venture to suggest that whatever your conclusions in any race,value in the price is a must.now then John
those things you highlight are sure important
but punters in general are lazy – so any angle that involves putting some work in could give you an edge over that laziness
most punters know about going, course, draw – its factored into prices
whereas aspects of speed ratings and sectional timings involve a bit more – could just be more of an edge there than you think
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I am just in the process of building a database containing 16 years of results, which will take another week to complete, so I can work out the correct standard times for each course in the UK and Ireland.
So far my database covers some 90,000+ races and climbing.
When I come to work out the standards for 2yo’s etc throughout the months of the flat season, hopefully they will be the most accurate about.When I have read about people stating that you need a least 25 results of each distance to compile standard times my head drops, I will be using 100+ to achieve accurate times.
Impressive to say the least, you built this on your own or with a few helping hands?
Impressive to say the least, you built this on your own or with a few helping hands?
All my own work , using 2 programs one of which is a $750 data scraping program.
It takes about 1 hour to scrape 2000 races and extract 9 pieces of information from each race.- Total Posts 17716
Just about everything from handicapping to times are important but my advice is I leave these things to people who are getting paid to do it.
It didn’t take me long to realise that spending hours days, weeks or even years thinking you have the sytem of all sytems and will crack what it takes to make your fortune is a total waste of time. I think I would be about 15 at the time.
I would have thought something people have been saying since 18 O’Plonk would have sunk in by now.
People often say if it works for you..I say does it work for you and the repsonse is normally a big fat zero because these just won’t admit to thesleves they are wrong.
Would the guy who has truly made a fortune using times trends or ratings please stand up and be recognised? The rest of you plase remain seated
Nobody eh?
- Total Posts 17716
I am just in the process of building a database containing 16 years of results, which will take another week to complete, so I can work out the correct standard times for each course in the UK and Ireland.
So far my database covers some 90,000+ races and climbing.
When I come to work out the standards for 2yo’s etc throughout the months of the flat season, hopefully they will be the most accurate about.When I have read about people stating that you need a least 25 results of each distance to compile standard times my head drops, I will be using 100+ to achieve accurate times.
What makes you think your times will be anymore accurate than those you can find on racing form websites?
Once you have collected these you better start contacting all the planning departments in the coutry and don’t forget the Clerk of the course of the time if he’s still breating along with the groundsman and while your at it try and find out for the company just how much soil did they use when altering the top bend 7 years ago
Just how much did it affect Beverly and ascot when they tore the courses apart and started eagainGet a real job FFs
What makes you think your times will be anymore accurate than those you can find on racing form websites?
Once you have collected these you better start contacting all the planning departments in the coutry and don’t forget the Clerk of the course of the time if he’s still breating along with the groundsman and while your at it try and find out for the company just how much soil did they use when altering the top bend 7 years ago
Just how much did it affect Beverly and ascot when they tore the courses apart and started eagainGet a real job FFs
when I have finished, I will webscrape all the courses to remove any relevant information regarding any changes to the layout of the courses.
Just about everything from handicapping to times are important but my advice is I leave these things to people who are getting paid to do it.
Would the guy who has truly made a fortune using times trends or ratings please stand up and be recognised?
Why is it necessary to accumulate a "fortune" punting the ‘osses using "times trends or ratings"?
Isn’t a simple – maybe modest – profit sufficient to prove you have an edge?
And I’d warrant that profit rather than fortune is the goal Blues Brother is seeking from his endeavours
Anyway Fister, if you’d care to help me exhume and dust-off the bones of Brer Bull, they could tell you tales aplenty of fortune from time; at least before he "soiled his nest" and went public with them
Likewise the still-standing Jack Ramsden who’s betting in the ’70s and ’80s was built around the keystone of timefigures. Come the ’90s, Coton, Beyer, Mordin, Potts et al and the PC, he came to the conclusion "there’s a lot of clever punters around now" and his edge diminished due to market factorization of matters time-related.
That’s it in a nutshell: market awareness of the method/system you’re using. RP Standard Times or Timeform Timefigures may be ‘good’ ‘bad’ or ‘indifferent’ but they most certainly aren’t the whole truth and nothing but the truth; they may help objectify subjective form ratings but don’t render them concrete
Hence attempting to compile your own Standards or Figures using the myriad novel techniques and variables that powerful software allows us to delve, is worthwhile if it further objectifies the subjective; or further quantifies the qualitative if ya prefer
Best wishes TBB, given application and a fair wind (ha ha) your research may result in figures less inaccurate then those from "people who are getting paid to do it"; and that’s the best you can hope for really
hard work never killed anyone
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I know there is software and plugins out there to pick up things that your looking for but the chances of many course alterations being written about have got to be remote.
There are 60 races course including Ffos las in mainland Britain alone.
From Down Royal to Killarney where they still use carrier pigeons
there’s another 26 or is it 28 in Ireland?I suppose the Racecourse Associations in both countries who might have the info if you covinced them to dig it all out for you. I think there would be more chance if you ask Murphy as he knows everybody. Little Irish fellow usually stands at the corner of Grafton Street in Dublin selling hats for leprachuans…. tell him Mick sent you.
Better you than me mate I can seee you being so busy you’ll never have time to bet in a race let alone watch one which is what you should be doing IMO.
you are missing the point about me being busy, the programs are setup to run automatically.
I built the data stream and just tell it to go and grab the data.
I was at the dentist this morning and it was running on it’s own, it has just past the 100,000 results.
Being a computer geek and my interest in the mechanics of horse racing I get a lot of enjoyment in working things out for myself.
You good be right in the fact I need to get a job- Total Posts 17716
Good post Drone.. The first thing one should remeber about susseful gamblers is never believe everything you read.
"This is how I won my money" rarely represents the whole truth if ever.
Remember Sidney Harris the stockbroker guy.’wasn’t he the man of the moment. Wrote a popular book and was running a tipping service last I heard.
Gimme Barney Curley or JP any day..the latter is the daddy of them all……nealry on his backside I hear dependant on one horse winning…….now reportedly worth something like $400M
Nothing fake or phoney about the man and he isn’t trying to sell some poor punter formulas or running a tipping serice,
Timeform are the only true proffesionals I would trust if it was my thing because they have the resources to provide what they offer..the rest no thanks no matter how much they claim they have won most of them are full of it.
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you are missing the point about me being busy, the programs are setup to run automatically.
I built the data stream and just tell it to go and grab the data.
I was at the dentist this morning and it was running on it’s own, it has just past the 100,000 results.
Being a computer geek and my interest in the mechanics of horse racing I get a lot of enjoyment in working things out for myself.
You good be right in the fact I need to get a jobWill pay for a new comupter when you burn the ass out of that one
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I think both Fist and Drone have been unfairly and highly biased in their critical views over someone wishing to extend their knowledge and research in the science of how a horse achieves a mathematical level of performance.
In future it would be best if both of you weighed up the pros and cons for both sides of the argument in future as it comes across quite frankly very childish, particually with Drone as I expect a more level headed and professional response than say Fist who’s…well I’ll leave it there.
Bluesbrother I hope you find the answers you’re looking for and let us know how you get on in the near future.
Thanksmrw
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