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What is the process behind developing standard times for various distances across various racecourses?
Is it as simple as noting down all the times recorded for the selected distance, adjusting them for going and class, averaging them out and voila?
Any other ideas?
Thanks in advance.
- Total Posts 17716
Buy a stopwatch ?
crazy way to try and find winnersIMOWhat I do through, after being advised to, is look back the results of the day and compare time for time on that day only………what is good to soft exactly?……damn sure it isn’t the same on a Monday as it is on a Tuesday. So judging horses by time can be a mile off.
If you use the above method it pretty much gives you an idea what the pace of the race is but you will get grade 1 hurdles being run slower than Novice hurdles at time so using it as a beting guide is near on usless most of the time.
Look at the past year on the flat. Some amazing times put up by horses that got stuffed next time they ran…..a few even broke track records……..not my cup of tea.
Look at the past year on the flat. Some amazing times put up by horses that got stuffed next time they ran…..a few even broke track records……..not my cup of tea.
Lemmings and Cliffs come to mind!
- Total Posts 17716
LOLOLOLOLOL
Mike,
Go to Google Books, enter Mordin On Time in the search box, then scroll down to page 17, and you can read his answer to your question.
AP
Buy a stopwatch ?
crazy way to try and find winnersIMOWhat I do through, after being advised to, is look back the results of the day and compare time for time on that day only………what is good to soft exactly?……damn sure it isn’t the same on a Monday as it is on a Tuesday. So judging horses by time can be a mile off.
If you use the above method it pretty much gives you an idea what the pace of the race is but you will get grade 1 hurdles being run slower than Novice hurdles at time so using it as a beting guide is near on usless most of the time.
Look at the past year on the flat. Some amazing times put up by horses that got stuffed next time they ran…..a few even broke track records……..not my cup of tea.
Fist
Times can be of use on the AW though as generally the going remains the same. Pace of the race is obviously important but AW races tend to be run at a decent pace so you can get a good idea of which horses can cover the distance in the least amount of time. It can help narrow the field down particularly in a field of AW handicap regulars.
Mike,
Go to Google Books, enter Mordin On Time in the search box, then scroll down to page 17, and you can read his answer to your question.
AP
Of course, Nick Mordin is the answer …
Thank you AP.
Mike,
Well he provides one answer – I’m not convinced that it’s THE answer ……
Wouldn’t THE answer result in every horse earning a speed figure of 42 ……
AP
Do not use means or medians. Times are distributed abnormally, due to its being easier to run slow than fast, and any methodology needs to take that into account.
Wouldn’t THE answer result in every horse earning a speed figure of 42 ……AP
And the form would read: 0101010
Mike,
Well he provides one answer – I’m not convinced that it’s THE answer ……
Wouldn’t THE answer result in every horse earning a speed figure of 42 ……
AP
Yes, and we know that turned out to be wrong!
Rob
- Total Posts 17716
Time is the only method to judge a horses true potential, when we are looking at comparing different decades rather than go on form lines our only solid evidence is time.
Time is pathetic you say?, well why can’t Our Kes win the Eclipse, why can’t Perlachy win the July Cup? if it was so irrelevent.
Track Records on RP and other sites are well out, the distances are wrong and new strips of ground have been put down at a few tracks.
Rather than knock it, actually put some time and consideration into it, you’ll find you will be better off than lookin at form lines.
Using Mordin On Time will give you a glorified class rating more than a pure speed figure.
I don’t like the way he adjusts times to calculate median times. His class pars are spot on.
- Total Posts 17716
Using Mordin On Time will give you a glorified class rating more than a pure speed figure.
I don’t like the way he adjusts times to calculate median times. His class pars are spot on.
I also think he’s guilty of trying to speed up horses
Just to say, the ‘standard times’ with RacingPost are a load of old honk.
Their ‘standard time’ for 1m2f for example is a full nine seconds faster than the course record over that distance!
Not sure which course you are referring to there, and RP’s own published methodology shows there are flaws in how they go about compiling standard times and timefigures, but it is of course possible for a standard time to be faster than a course record.
Standard times are meant to apply across different tracks as well as distances, so they should be less likely to be achieved on poor courses than good ones due to the abilities of the horses likely to be concerned.
Not sure which course you are referring to there, and RP’s own published methodology shows there are flaws in how they go about compiling standard times and timefigures, but it is of course possible for a standard time to be faster than a course record.
Standard times are meant to apply across different tracks as well as distances, so they should be less likely to be achieved on poor courses than good ones due to the abilities of the horses likely to be concerned.
I was refering to Haydock. Do the standard times apply to all races over that distance over all courses?
I didn’t know that, I thought it was just the standard time for that particular course.
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