- This topic has 499 replies, 76 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Cant believe Snap Tie is being overlooked. Could have won the supreme novices last year if it wasnt for bad blunders on 2 of the last 4 flights, has since done nothing but improve, recently put last years champion in his place and is still improving with every run. If the ground rides in his favour ( wouldnt want a lot of rain) it might be worth having a glance. Certainly looks the one for bargain hunters. Could be wrong but backed Katchit at 16’s last year and Sublimity at 20’s the year before so on a hat-trick.
Any thoughts?………
I got the impression in the Supreme that Snap Tie might well do better over a longer trip.
His jockey was pushing and soving from along way out and did well to get him a lovely run up the inside. Whereas Binocular and Captain Cee Bee were both travelling much better at that point.
He jumped the last very awkwardly but more in the manner of a tired horse rather than a bad jumper.
I think the answer lies in his form with Katchit. He was most likely fitter than him and getting weight he beat him by 1 1/2 lengths, Hardly encouraging form but horses do improve and that’s why we have 20/1 winners popping up unexpectly.
Snap Tie is a nice horse and regarding the question: Could he win the Champion Hurdle? Yes most certainly especially if it becomes a stamina test. So if you fancy him go for it……….He looks as tough as nails and I persoanlly would have him well before some others around the same price,
Tis a fair enough point, I’m just coming from the point of view that the supreme winning time was 2 seconds quicker than the champion, he was giving weight to binocular and captain cee bee is out for the season.
Adding the fact when he beat katchit last time out, both horses were having their first run in over 200 days and was only carrying 3lbs less, would rather take 20/1 than the 4/1 or 8/1 you get from Binocular and Katchit respectively at the present time……Wouldn’t bet on it PC…Early season results don’t often stand the test of time…Blue Bajan is one helluva horse and you wouldn’t know how fit Andy Turnell has him…..He absolutely bolted up in the Swinton Hurdle he finished a distance in front of Sentry Duty at Cheltehham.
Have just browsed through this thread to see whether Blue Bajan had been mentioned in dispatches, and was pleasantly surprised to see that quite a lot of page 9 references him.
I am always keen to back horses in the CH that have form in big fields, with its obvious fast pace. That is why I will be having a bet on Katchit. I will also be having a bet on Blue Bajan.
As Fists points out, Blue Bajan is a stone below the likes of Binocular. Let us look at his Flat career though. In his first 14 runs on the Flat, he never had a RPR above 77, but in 4 of his last 5 starts was rated 111, 113, 113, 113. [edit: Presumably on those latter two, the RP handicapper was using him as the marker horse.] He’ll cope with the fast pace, having won the Swinton Hurdle, and coming second in a Cambridgeshire.
One thing I am worried about is that after the Swinton, Turnell was quoted as saying that Blue Bajan would be aimed at the Bula, to see if he was a Cheltenham horse. I didn’t take any notice of the build-up to the Boylesports Int’l (nee Bula). Was Blue Bajan among the entries? When was he taken out? Has he met with a setback?
After some horse or other puts up a spectacular performance over the next week or so, I can see Blue Bajan drifting from his current 110 on Betfair. I’ll strike a week before the Cheltenham Trials.
Remember Andy Turnell? He sat there all the time on Bird’s Nest getting a good view of the rear ends of Sea Pigeon and Night Nurse. He wants the Champion Hurdle, and he wants it bad.
Edit: I am probably worrying needlessly about Blue Bajan, as the Bula was too close to the re-arranged Fighting Fifth.
He was entered for something recently Gerald but sorry mate for the life of me I can’t remember what.
Blue Bajan is the sort of horse who could beat anything on his day like Beech Road did. Wouldn’t surprise me if he turned over the lot of them but nothing surprises me these days.
I am sure Andy would love to win it and many times he looked like he was going to as a jockey. He rode similar animals to Birds Nest like Tree Tangle and Beacon Light who just fell that bit short on the day…A big hero of mine he was the unluckiest guy ever not to win the Gold Cup when Summerville brokedown with the race at his mercy.
Unfortunately for Andy every trainer in the UK would also love to win the Champion Hurdle
It seems the right time to delve back in to this –
Following on from my (much) earlier comments – great to see the old boys / "boats" HE and Harchibald win a Grade 1 each this season against the young ‘uns.
Sentry Duty – still well on the upgrade, and that win over Celestial Halo still looking pretty solid. Still interests me as a possible future Grade winner, as well as making me a good few quid this season!
Proof yet again, how contrasting Kempton and Cheltenham are, full credit to "Harchibald" though! "Celestial halo" and "Jered" are my 2 against "Binocular" who i am convinced will "wobble" up that hill!
This really looks to be a cracking renewal of the race and there’s maybe a dozen horses that you can’t rule out making the frame.
Binocular is the obvious choice, but in such a competitive renewal I think it’s worth finding oppostion to him.
It’s important not to invent reasons to justify a hypothesis and ignoring the obvious. Binocular is a worthy favourite, but far from unbeatable.
My only reservation about Binocular is the track. He’ll handle the hill at Cheltenham, I’m just not convinced the tactics that need to be applied on him will be as effective in a Champion Hurdle. After his defeat to Captain Cee Bee last year, Nicky Henderson said…
“We felt he’d learned from Cheltenham, and this was the obvious way to ride him today – have one crack at the other horse and try to do him for toe.”
Many will attack turning for home and I don’t think Binocular will have it all his own way trying to pass them up the hill.
Sublimity is the one horse in the race that can beat Binocular for speed and you won’t find an easier 1/2L winner than him in the December Hurdle. He had some good horses behind and the front two were increasing their 4 1/2 L advantage over Brave Inca at the finish.
He finished an excellent fourth in the Champion Hurdle last year after well documented training problems leading up to the race and I think he would’ve pushed Katchit close if 100%.
He won the race in 2007 on only his fifth start over obstacles to demonstrate his class. He jumps better and no doubt he’s a stronger horse, too.
Jered is the forgotten horse of the race. He impressively landed the Champion Novice at Punchestown last season and, like Binocular, he was only beaten 2L by Captain Cee Bee when making his hurdling bow.
He failed to handle the heavy ground last time out and he’s a much better horse on good ground. His jumping will need to improve, but he’s a good horse with a solid turn of foot.
Katchit, Celestial Halo, Osana, Snap Tie, Sizing Europe, Punjabi, Won In The Dark, Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace can also make the frame!
I think Jered holds solid place credentials at 20/1 and Sublimity is the biggest danger to the favourite. Don’t underestimate him.
Bosranic I really don’t think Sublimity can do Binocular for speed I seem to remember someone else saying that or it was you in a previous post but I just don’t see it Binocular is well over half a stone a better horse than Sublimity easily (IMO).
If Binocular gets beat it won’t be because something is quicker than him it’ll be because he gets outslogged up the hill.
Will neeed to be some tool to outslog him up the hill. Bos you quote Nicky Henderson from close on a year ago perhaps you should know what he said just recently. "I’m not worried at all by the Cheltenham Hill" Then quipped "At least I don’t think I am". They are mega confident about this horse and rightly so.
How much stronger must he be this year he was a virtual baby when he ran in the Supreme against his elders. He kicked both the Triumph Hurdle and Champion Hurdle winners into touch and possibly his biggest danger Sizing Europe s strugglingto find his best form.
So we are down to Sublimity as the main danger a horse who has won only one race since his 2007 victory. This is the horse who has a lot more doubt about him getting up the hill than anything else in the race surerly he is the biggest false 2nd fav in the history of the race?
I was impressed more with Won in the Dark as I was with Sublimity who incidentally got a few dull ones to keep him going so it wasn’t a motionless bridle win by any stretch of the imagination . WITD hated the ground behind HE so he can be excused that run He reversed places with Franchoek and stricktly on the book that puts him ahead of the Nichol’s horse.
He didn’t appear to be fancied which may be a pointer to him having not reached his peak yet.
He may be a lively outsider who might improve rapidly and surprise a lot of people. Something 9 year old Sublimity is much less likley to do.
I’d rather have 50 quid Ew on Won in the Dark at 40/1 Skybet than take 10/1 about Sublimity any day of the week.
Incidentally Sublimity is a lovely animal to watch when on form but he just lacks that little touch of class that allows the likes of Punjabi to get the better of him and if Punjabi can get the better of him at Wetherby I shudder to think what he will do to Sublimity at Cheltenham as he is said to have improved since last season.
You wold have to think that Punjabi is a better horse than Binocular to fance Sublimity at all IMO.
Sorry Bos I just can’t see any logic or value in the horse holding the 2nd fav position in the betting.
Fair points by Ian and Fist.
Binocular will more than likely win the race in March, but a lot can happen between now and then and anything can happen during the race. When you have a host of very good horses at double figure prices opposing a second season hurdler that has a couple of questions to answer, it’s worth looking at a few of them.
Sublimity has been there and done it. You’re right, Fist, he has only the one victory to his name since his 2007 triumph. To show his wellbeing, that was achieved on his latest visit to the track.
Sublimity doesn’t so a lot in front and I think he was worth more than 1/2L at Leopardstown.
Jered is the one for value, in my opinion. He was arguably as good as anything in the novice division last season and he’ll be a huge danger on good ground. His victory at Punchestown in April was, in my opinion, the most impressive performance from a novice hurdler last season.
Jered is the one for value, in my opinion. He was arguably as good as anything in the novice division last season and he’ll be a huge danger on good ground. His victory at Punchestown in April was, in my opinion, the most impressive performance from a novice hurdler last season.
I was thinking about Jered the other day, Bos. It seems to have a bit quiet about the horse after finishing behind Hardy Eustace and Sizing Europe in the Maplewood at Punchestown.
I dont really know what to make of that race to be honest, the form doesnt look fantastic, and the ground was against Jered that day. It may be one to put a line through so to speak, when assessing the race.
Will be interesting to see if he has another run somewhere before the festival in March.
His run in the Morgiana proves that he just doesn’t handle heavy ground and the ground hasn’t been suitable for him to run anywhere in Ireland since. I thought he might have gone to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle but once the Bula was cancelled, Harchibald was always going to go there and JP had Straw Bear as well.
The form of the Morgiana hasn’t worked out great at all with Sizing Europe and Hardy both disappointing since but I think he’s a bit better than that run suggested. If he got quick ground at the festival he’d have a good squeek because the race would be run to suit him. However given Cheltenham’s watering policy I’d say the chances of him getting his ground are very unlikely.
I’ve a few bob antepost about him at a fancy price but I’m pretty much resigned to losing that bet at this stage. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Noel bypassed Cheltenham and waited for the better ground at Punchestown in April.
Not exactly a champion hurdle post, but has anyone heard of a horse called Mourad? Wondered if there was a price for any of the novices at cheltenham…. 100+ on the flat and looks as if he’s going to be even better over the timbers. Cant find a price anywhere.
Andrew,
"Mourad" always looked like he could make a better hurdler than
a Group horse on the flat. He is a very well bred 4yo (Sinndar, Kahyasi dam) trained by J.Oxx for the "Aga Khan" he is now with W, Mullins
the man for training Novice hurdlers this year, You should get at least 33/1
for the triumph hurdle if you ask your bookmaker!Fair points by Ian and Fist.
Binocular will more than likely win the race in March, but a lot can happen between now and then and anything can happen during the race. When you have a host of very good horses at double figure prices opposing a second season hurdler that has a couple of questions to answer, it’s worth looking at a few of them.
Sublimity has been there and done it. You’re right, Fist, he has only the one victory to his name since his 2007 triumph. To show his wellbeing, that was achieved on his latest visit to the track.
Sublimity doesn’t so a lot in front and I think he was worth more than 1/2L at Leopardstown.
Jered is the one for value, in my opinion. He was arguably as good as anything in the novice division last season and he’ll be a huge danger on good ground. His victory at Punchestown in April was, in my opinion, the most impressive performance from a novice hurdler last season.
Reading your post brought something to mind that I hadn’t really thought of. Just how bad was that ground the day Won in The Dark finished last?
The form was completely turned on it’s head in Sublimities race. Taking it Jered suffered as much or even more than Won in the Dark where does that leave us? Ok so I’m a bit slow at times
That makes Jered very hard to assess and he could be a live threat but for one thing. I would suspect that if we could spot Binocular as a Champion Hurdle horse then JP might just have spotted him too.
If the cash is already down like it was on Franchoek would we have a Triumph Hurdle situation on our hands?It’s hard to imagine anyone caring more about his bets than winning the Champion Hurdle but he made a decison last year that surprised more than a few people despite Nicky Henderson openly disagreeing with it.
They have been very quiet about him at least I haven’t read anything. Could it be they could have something else in mind for him?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.