Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Classic Champion Hurdle 2009
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March 9, 2009 at 03:16 #214515
Personally, I think Binocular is the best horse in the race, but I actually don’t think he’ll win – just a gut feeling, I hope I’m wrong. If the ground is on the soft side I can see Celestial Halo taking some beating – he gets the trip well, a Triumph winner – handles the course. Agree with an earlier post about Brave Inca – I can see him being placed, and Katchit will surely return to some kind of form.
March 9, 2009 at 12:29 #214535I could see Brave Inca being all but tailed off in this. If you look back to 2007 he was under the cosh from 4 out when finishing 2nd to Sublimity.
He ran on really well the but he is now 11 years old. He would obviously have to improve an awful lot from that run to bother the pincipals here and at his age I can’t see it.
If it was a chase where speed was of less importance perhaps he could be considered but this is the Champion Hurdle.
I can’t see where he will get involved with Ashkabar likely to set of like a scalded Cat, Hardy Eustace trying to go with him and Celestial Halo and Osana waiting in the wings to take it up at some point on the second circuit the pace is going to be neckbreaking.
Of those 4 I would expect Osana to be the one everything will have to catch and I can se very few being able to do so.
Binocular relaxed quick hurdling should be able to carry him there and hopefully come at the right time to take the race but with 24 going to post a lot could go wrong. Luckily the best in the country rides him which inspires confidence.
Some are making a big issue about the ground (Tuffers and is damn walking stick ) as far as I can make out there are drying winds today, a little rain tonightand possible showers during the day.
At least if it is soft it shoud be easy to go through if it does rain at the time of racing.
Jered will be badly effected though and I wouldn’t be surprised if Frank Beryy pulls the plug on him. He’s a very nice horse they are unlikely to risk in ground he has no chance in.
Soft ground could also put paid to the chances of horse like Sublimity, Crack Away Jack, Harchibald, Whiteoak, Sentry Duty and even Punjabi who would surely all prefer it to be on the good side of soft.
This softening ground may end up more in Binocular’s favour than against him.
March 9, 2009 at 13:46 #214541Soft ground will seriously depress me.
March 9, 2009 at 14:57 #214550Yes, Aristo, I agree that if we get soft ground it won’t necessarily be against Binocular. His trainer has said that the horse would be fine on soft and Mick Fitzgerald, who rode the horse on contrasting ground, said earlier in the season that he he thought the horse felt better on soft than on better ground. The obvious caveat though is that soft ground is likely to make the race even more of a stamina test, assuming we get the usual strong pace, and Binocular does still have to prove just how well he stays the trip at Cheltenham in top company.
The race turned out to be quite a slog last year, though I think that was due to a combination of the strong winds, the rain soaked ground and the strong early pace that Osana set. Plenty of good horses never really got into the race and were well cooked at the top of the hill. If we get slow ground again this year, at least it should ensure a bit more space opens up on the second circuit to help the principals avoid trouble in running in such a big and competitive field. That should make it a bit easier to come with a run from the back and that type would be an obvious threat should those ridden prominently misjudge the pace on ground that may be hard to evaluate ahead of the race.
I agree with the point made earlier that pace more than ground may be the key to Jered, though even so I feel he does struggle a bit to pick up on soft/heavy and that negates one of the horse’s key advantages (i.e. his turn of foot) and that can make him look a much more ordinary animal than is actually the case. His hurdling, which has posed some problems in the past, certainly looks much better off a faster pace.
March 9, 2009 at 15:19 #214552Soft ground will seriously depress me.
Yeah I’m not so confident with Binocular on soft so I’m having a few quid each way on Brave Inca 33’s at William Hill as i believe he will battle on any ground and has been in good form this season after injury on soft/heavy plus always does well at the festival but I’ll still be doing the sun dance this morning.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
March 9, 2009 at 16:37 #214566Soft ground ,possibly heavy its a disgrace ! stick a pin in ,bookies benefit this year ,you got to think , the groundsman has messed up ,and come the to bookies rescue yet again!
As far as I’m aware only the New course was watered Pale Rider, so you can’t blame the groundsman!
March 9, 2009 at 17:19 #214578"""I was just looking through the card, looking for one for soft and saw that Jered was by presenting out of a phardante mare (which means he should really actually love soft), and so thought I’d give his races another look over"""
See that is where I would disagree with you. Presentings are quite tough but they seem to appreciate a bit of good ground. Phardantes certainly do IMO.
I do agree that he is actually quite stoutly bred. Should get up the hill….although he is trained by Meade. Perhaps doesnt need it as fast as some people think but certainly looks better on decent ground. In fact this year, he has definitly run ok-ish on it but to win at this level, one would imagine that everything would have to be right.I agree with Aristo in that Binocular might find benefit most from a bit of cut in the ground.
SHL
March 9, 2009 at 17:31 #214580Binocular is the most talented horse in the line-up, no question.
It still worries me that his only defeat, despite being so impressive just about everywhere else, has been at Cheltenham.
The question marks surrounding his ability to get up the hill are vaild, in my opinion. You have to think there will still be a few breathing down his neck turning-in.
If the ground is soft I wouldn’t fancy Sublimity as much as I would on good ground, and I’d be inclined to have a few quid ew on Katchit instead.
I still think Jered is good value.
Saying that, I hope Binocular wins impressively.
March 9, 2009 at 20:24 #214614I really really really want it to stay dry. I want Harchibald to do himself justice.
If the ground is good, and he runs a shocker, then fair enough, but if it’s soft then i’ll be gutted.
March 9, 2009 at 20:27 #214616Sizing Europe must be the unluckiest horses in training. He caught some bug on the way over and has been pulled out.
To be honest I was worried he might bounce back to his best and spoil the party as so many good horses can do when you least expect it.
Have to feel heart sorry for his connections who nothing has gone right for since last years Champion.
March 9, 2009 at 20:32 #214617Noel Meade seems quite confident that Jered will run a good race on good to soft ground.
All is not lost.
March 9, 2009 at 20:35 #214618Noel Meade seems quite confident that Jered will run a good race on good to soft ground.
All is not lost.
Just out of interest why would you fancy Jered ,when AP has the pick of 2 and goes for the Fav ?
March 9, 2009 at 20:41 #214619On every thing they’ve done to date, there is no way McCoy isnt going to ride Binocular, hes a short priced McManus owned favorite. McCoy probably hasnt even looked at jered. But then again, McCoy also chose Binocular last season over Captain Cee Bee and look at how that worked out. Jered has David Casey on board who is a brilliant jockey, and as jockey bookings go you’d have to be happy with that.
March 9, 2009 at 20:41 #214620Noel Meade seems quite confident that Jered will run a good race on good to soft ground.
All is not lost.
Just out of interest why would you fancy Jered ,when AP has the pick of 2 and goes for the Fav ?
The price.
March 9, 2009 at 21:05 #214625The race turned out to be quite a slog last year, though I think that was due to a combination of the strong winds, the rain soaked ground and the strong early pace that Osana set. Plenty of good horses never really got into the race and were well cooked at the top of the hill.
I disagree that last years was a slog, osana went off quite quickly but soon turned into what looked like a jog. The first 4 home looked like a good ground 1234, and possibly the fifth too. The most improtant factor is that no horses managed to get into the race from the back, except for Punjabi, a speedster, who brought 1 mile speed from the flat. There were plenty of horses who would have handled the ground and been suited to coming off a decent clip who just never even got a sniff. Catch Me, a stayer, who was up with the pace throughout and was one of the first to kick for home was soon back pedalling, and from that point on it became a battle of the speedsters, with Osana who had been up there throughout and was still full of running, also in the mix. The reason it looked like a slog was that the speedsters began to battle each other some way from home.
Last years champ hurdle handed a massive advantage to
1- Speed Horses
2- Horses who were up at the front
If you look at the first 7 home-
Katchit ticked both those boxes
Osana Ticked box 2
Punjabi ticked box 1
Sublimity ticked both boxes but made crucial mistakes with his jumps.
Straw Bear ticked box 1
Catch Me Ticked box 2
Afsoun ticked box 2
A slog it was not IMO.
March 9, 2009 at 21:17 #214630Noel Meade seems quite confident that Jered will run a good race on good to soft ground.
All is not lost.
Just out of interest why would you fancy Jered ,when AP has the pick of 2 and goes for the Fav ?
It is possible for the apparent stable second string to win a race. What if AP had the pick of every single horse in the race? He’s still pick Binocular (anybody would), but should we not back anything against him because of that?
March 9, 2009 at 23:26 #214658Noel Meade seems quite confident that Jered will run a good race on good to soft ground.
All is not lost.
Just out of interest why would you fancy Jered ,when AP has the pick of 2 and goes for the Fav ?
It is possible for the apparent stable second string to win a race. What if AP had the pick of every single horse in the race? He’s still pick Binocular (anybody would), but should we not back anything against him because of that?
And Jockeys are noted as good tipsters
SHL
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