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I start every race evaluation with what I consider to be a short list of horses from which I think the winner should come. There is obviously more to it than that and now the hard work of studying begins. It will probably be Tuesday when we know the state of the ground before a final decision is made. If pressed at the moment I see no reason why Celestial Halo should finish in front of Binocular. I expect Osana to be spot on but as a front runner he could again set it up for a hold up horse. Katchit you have to respect at Cheltenham.
Mike.Well mike its starts Tuesday ,time to make your mind up soon ,but i wouldn’t be to fearful of Katchit ,not the same horse as last year ,and even if he was ,he wouldn’t be good enough this year
[I don’t disagree entirely, but last year Sizing Europe was banker material, in fact, he was the banker of the festival for a lot of people, and look what happened there..[
Sizing Europe Banker material ??? on the back of beating old times and has beans ??? OK Chris ha ha ,just to let you know ,i lay-ed him big time on bet-fair ,i never thought hes was ,as you say ( Banker Material )
Of course he was banker material for a lot of people and his performance was awesome in the AIG. It’s not what you do it’s the way you do it mate.
Has sizing Europe not badly injured himself when absolutely cruising the result may have been very different and you would have been lucky to afford Has Beans
Incidentally one of the has-beens he beat was the fav Al Eile who has won twice since beating Osana 10 lengths at levels at Aintree.He may never come back from that injury but he was a worthy fav last season without question.
Of course he was banker material for a lot of people and his performance was awesome in the AIG. It’s not what you do it’s the way you do it mate.
Has sizing Europe not badly injured himself when absolutely cruising the result may have been very different and you would have been lucky to afford Has Beans
Incidentally one of the has-beens he beat was the fav Al Eile who has won twice since beating Osana 10 lengths at levels at Aintree.He may never come back from that injury but he was a worthy fav last season without question.
Al Eile ,who is a stayer and loves Aintee,and hardy who was past his prime ,ok i give you Osana ,who is also a staying type ,but banker materal ,was putting it a bit strong on the back of them runs .
This could turn into a real slog the way the weather is looking now. If anything can beat Binocular it will be a combination of the hill and testing conditions.
I’ve found myself thinking "Brave Inca cannot possibly win – can he?"
Probably the best thing that could have happened for Katchit – this will allow guts to play a more important part than speed.
I am almost certainly going to leave this alone but given the number of horses who are likely to be inconvenienced by the ground Brave Inca is probably the current value to be placed.
I believe he went from 12’s with one firm and 10’s with most others to 6/4 fav right after the AIG. Must have impressed someone!
Soft ground ,possibly heavy its a disgrace ! stick a pin in ,bookies benefit this year ,you got to think , the groundsman has messed up ,and come the to bookies rescue yet again!
If were gonna see soft ground on the day which im sure we probably will now i would rather be on Osana given the record for previously placed winners in this race. I will be there on the day and there is no way i could let the stands erupt around me if Katchit won without having a piece of it myself.
Osana EW and Katchit small stakes EW.
If there is any ‘good’ in the running description I will leave place bets on the forementioned using the BF place market and place a reasonably sized double on MM and Bino.
His appearance (stocky, powerful) may suggest otherwise, but each time I watch last year’s Supreme I’m more inclined to think that only a total slog this year will catch Binocular out stamina-wise. If the ground is genuinely soft and he’s pushed out I may be sorely tempted.
Friggo don’t be going into panic old son. Binocular is aa totally different ball game this year. AP won’t hear of defeat and couldn’t give a rats ass if it turns out to be heavy. Horse handles it fine.
I’m still of the opinion if he is beat it will be by Osana but only if David Pipe listens to me
No way are they going to try and make all with the horse this year wait and see. If I am right then I think Osana will be a big danger.Well at least until Tony says "See ya lads"
I still think that you can’t ignore Katchit here. Trainer seems to have been saving him for this. His three runs this season were at, Ascot, Wincanton and Kempton. All right handed tracks which wouldn’t play to his strengths. 5 from 6 at Cheltenham and 5 from 5 at the distance are stats not to be ignored. I’m not saying he will win but he is a player who hasn’t been given a chance so far this season. Definite each way material.
Mike.This is going to go against common opinion, and Im probably going to get slated here but on soft ground I actually think that Jered if fully fired up, and with a good pace on could go well in the champ hurdle. I have just been watching back his videos on the at the races website and I dont actually subscribe to the opinion that he needs good ground.
I was just looking through the card, looking for one for soft and saw that Jered was by presenting out of a phardante mare (which means he should really actually love soft), and so thought I’d give his races another look over. In the race where he was beaten home by sizing europe and Hardy Eustace, his action when on the flat bits looks near perfect (jumping looked to be lacking in experience), and I think he was just done for toe by quicker horses (they did go a crawl early on in the race), but Sizing Europe and Hardy didnt actually look to be actioned half as good as him up the run in. Its also worth noting as a positive that Jered also came down the hill at down royal fairly well.
On soft I really fancy Celestial Halo to go well, osana should go well too, but on the off chance that they are too close to a fast pace (in which case the front is not the place to be), then I was looking for one who would sit off the pace, handle the ground and come with a late challenge, and I actually think that Jered could be the dark horse of this race, especially as he is now drifting with the prospect of soft ground.
Another intersting aspect to think about is that last year JP McManus’s other horse Captain Cee Bee had been kept off the track most of the season due to needing good ground and then came out and ran the novice hurdling performance of the season in the supreme novice on ground that many thought he wouldnt handle, jered’s had an almost identical campaign this year to him in terms of terms of races and time off pre cheltenham.
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There’s no doubting, given Jered’s action, that he’ll prove more effective on better ground, but as I said earlier in the thread he moves well enough to cope with anything on the soft side of good.
The one thing he does need is a decent pace. He travels impeccably, and can quicken, but his jumping could prove costly if he’s not taking his hurdles at speed. I think the Champion Hurdle is one race that almost guarantees a decent gallop, so Jered has to have a chance.
I think (and hope) that is a great spot Bul’, I have been of the opinion for quite some time that Jered is pace dependent rather than ground dependent in the top class races. I am mainly with Celestial Halo but have managed to get 3 other ante post bets to the start Jered, Muirhead and Whiteoak and can give them all a real squeak in my more imaginative moments.
This could turn into a real slog the way the weather is looking now. If anything can beat Binocular it will be a combination of the hill and testing conditions.
I’ve found myself thinking "Brave Inca cannot possibly win – can he?"
Probably the best thing that could have happened for Katchit – this will allow guts to play a more important part than speed.
Maybe I’ll be shot down, but if any of the former winners can win this year then it doesn’t say much for the current crop of Hurdlers. It’s nearly 10 years since we had a horse with class winning the Champion – we’re not going to get another ‘gutsy’ ‘real battler’ winning again are we? As much as I like to see a horse battle and stick it’s neck out – I do occasionally like to see a horse put a race away in a matter of strides – I hope the ground isn’t going to stop Binocular from doing this.
If Celestiasl Halo sets off as he did in last years Triumph, and even more so if osana goes with him and tries to take him on for the lead then its fairly certain that Binocular isnt the winner.
IMO Binocular already is a good ground champion in that sort of mould Andy and he doesnt need to win at cheltenham to prove that. All he has to prove is that he truly sees out 2 miles.
I just assess each race as I see it, last years champ looked a bit disappointing in terms of pace and there was always sure to be battle for the line. This year i think there will be a lot of tired horses coming up the hill and whether there are two in a battle or not it doesnt take away from the fact that they are the best of their generation on the race’s conditions on the day, as Katchit was last year on different conditions.
The one thing that would really disappoint me is if, no-one makes a decent pace, or accidentally sets a slow one, they end up going a crawl, binocular wins anyway, and we have to wait another bloody year to see if he can be outstayed yet again.
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