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AP has learnt now how to handle Binocular now and will have the pace of the race worked out to perfection. Nothing else in the race is remotely as good a hurdler as Bin and that gives him 16l. Make no mistake,this is a class champion hurdler. You can try and get him beat as much as you like,he will prevail
I’m not trying to get him beat, I’m looking for some value. I’d rather take just over 11/2 Sentry Duty to come third than 11/8 Binny to win.
And there’s always that tempting exacta to go for……
OK I accept that,just over the years it has always amazed me how many people look to get the champions beat. For my EW I have gone for Won in the Dark
AP has learnt now how to handle Binocular now and will have the pace of the race worked out to perfection. Nothing else in the race is remotely as good a hurdler as Bin and that gives him 16l. Make no mistake,this is a class champion hurdler. You can try and get him beat as much as you like,he will prevail
I’m not trying to get him beat, I’m looking for some value. I’d rather take just over 11/2 Sentry Duty to come third than 11/8 Binny to win.
And there’s always that tempting exacta to go for……
Does sentry duty act on the track ? he ran no race last year ,i got my doubts !
OK I accept that,just over the years it has always amazed me how many people look to get the champions beat. For my EW I have gone for Won in the Dark
Even Mick Fitz doesnt think he is a good price. Perhaps deserves to be favourite but its not like he has beaten all of these horses, numerous times, on different types of ground. He is still about a potential being realised.
SHL
AP has learnt now how to handle Binocular now and will have the pace of the race worked out to perfection. Nothing else in the race is remotely as good a hurdler as Bin and that gives him 16l. Make no mistake,this is a class champion hurdler. You can try and get him beat as much as you like,he will prevail
I hope you’re right. I wonder if there is a ‘Beech Road’ lurking in the field? Can’t believe that is 20 years ago.
If the Fav is as good as we think ,he could win this very very well ! i hope he is the real deal for racing ! now that we have lost a star like Denman .
AP has learnt now how to handle Binocular now and will have the pace of the race worked out to perfection. Nothing else in the race is remotely as good a hurdler as Bin and that gives him 16l. Make no mistake,this is a class champion hurdler. You can try and get him beat as much as you like,he will prevail
I hope you’re right. I wonder if there is a ‘Beech Road’ lurking in the field? Can’t believe that is 20 years ago.
I was with Beech Roads owner Tony Geake the day he won. We did quietly respect him you know .
Great post, riverman. The only thing I would add is that I don’t believe the early pace will be a problem for either of them (although I take the point about Sentry Duty’s size – Nicky Henderson has made similar comments). As for lasting out the race, Sentry Duty has already proven he stays two and a half miles and stayed 1m7f on the flat so I would expect him to come up the hill pretty well.
The great thing about races like this is that you can make good arguments against quite a few of the horses. My aim is to find horses which I think are overpriced and at 33/1 I thought Sentry Duty was quite simply far too big a price. He’s been cut to 20s and 25s this morning with a few of the bookies so it may be the 33s won’t last much longer.
Yes, I very much agree about the price and 33/1 is big enough to allow for some reasonable reservations about the horse. What I like about Sentry Duty from a betting angle is that he may well be one that, as you implied in an earlier post, has slipped under the radar a bit at this stage. His runs at Cheltenham and Punchestown last spring wouldn’t inspire much confidence in the horse and that probably accounts for why he has been somewhat neglected in the antepost market for the CH. Having run in the Ladbroke and avoided what are seen as the major trials for the CH this season, has also kept him out the limelight to some extent. But taking on board that he was quite a highly rated horse on the flat and gave a sound enough beating to Celestial Halo at Doncaster over hurdles as well as winning the Ladbroke in quite good style, he may be one that just has that bit of class lerking to cause a surprise in the CH. With Binocular in the field, anyone looking for another one to back or an alternative to the favourite, it probably makes sense to look for one at a bigger price who (like Sublimity in 2007) has a sufficiently high flat rating to suggest he might potentially have the class to outperform on the day. Your initial post inviting discussion of Sentry Duty in relation to Binocular was particularly interesting in that respect.
Sentry Duty may also be a horse that has taken a while for the trainer to work out. If keeping him fresh is the key, that might explain the relatively poor showings at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season. He possibly needs more than a five or six week break between races, particularly major races, over hurdles. .He weakened noticeably in both those big hurdles races last season, but at a big price you could certainly give the benefit of the doubt that those races came too quickly as opposed to thinking his disappointing performance reflected inherent stamina limitations. As you say, Sentry Duty was running over the longer distances on the flat and faring well enough.
One other point to throw in perhaps is that presumably Sentry Duty is one that doesn’t need a lot of work to get right and can also race well after a significant break. Given the interruptions in training due to the snowy weather in January that Nicky Henderson has referred to, that might be a small advantage in favour of Sentry Duty against the other two contenders from the yard who are reported to take a bit more work to get right.
Of course, it might take the snows of Russia to stop Binocular winning on Tuesday, but nevertheless I think there will prove to be some good each-way value and value in the W/O Binocular markets right up to the off.
I’ll stick my neck out here and say:
WON IN THE DARK 40-1
WILL FINISH AHEAD OF
SENTRY DUTY 33-1
Based on the fact that sentry duty has only ever won on good ground on a flat track, and has run shockers anytime away from those conditions, including on course and distance last year. Henderson has said that he has learnt that he needs to be fresh, but he was pretty much as fresh in the supreme novice last year (6weeks) as he was in the ladbroke (7weeks).
Won In The Dark has never run a bad race on good-sft or better to date, and has run well on course and distance and likely ground conditions, and on all known form is a better horse.
IMO one is priced up on the fact that the bookies know he will be popular after two handicap wins, and the other is priced up on the fact that he is over looked more than anything else.
Based on the fact that sentry duty has only ever won on good ground on a flat track, and has run shockers anytime away from those conditions, including on course and distance last year. Henderson has said that he has learnt that he needs to be fresh, but he was pretty much as fresh in the supreme novice last year (6weeks) as he was in the ladbroke (7weeks).
Hi Bulwark
I agree that SD’s run at last year’s festival is a negative but if we never forgave a horse a bad run then we would have to write off most of the contenders in most races. He hit a hurdle early on last year and it can be difficult to recover from a bad early mistake in a race like the SN. Having made our excuses for that run you can hardly say his run at Punchestown was "a shocker". He raced prominently, took it up two out but faded in the straight. It’s possible that despite staying well on the flat he doesn’t fully stay 2m4f over hurdles especially when the ground is on the soft side.
Those are his only two bad runs over hurdles. His other four runs have produced three victories, namely his demolition of Celestial Halo and two impressive victories in two of the seasons most competitive two mile hurdles.
I’m not saying his form his bombproof by any means but at 33/1 it doesn’t need to be.
Fair enough Tuffers, and good luck with SD, I could be proved wrong but I just think that there are a few at better prices who tick a few more boxes.
Fair enough Tuffers, and good luck with SD, I could be proved wrong but I just think that there are a few at better prices who tick a few more boxes.
That’s what I love about racing. We can all look at the same horses and the same form and draw completely different conclusions. We’re certainly in agreement though on looking for a lively outsider – let’s hope they both come in the first three
Getting near to the moment of truth and I fear I’d jinx something for us if I didn’t come on here championing the little fella
Tough season, some patchy work at home… I think he just achieved too much too soon and can’t quite cope with having nothing left to aim for
He’ll be right there two from home and we’ll see if he still loves the hill
C’mon Katchit!!!!
Getting near to the moment of truth and I fear I’d jinx something for us if I didn’t come on here championing the little fella
Tough season, some patchy work at home… I think he just achieved too much too soon and can’t quite cope with having nothing left to aim for
He’ll be right there two from home and we’ll see if he still loves the hill
C’mon Katchit!!!!
Not wishing to rain on your parade but Katchit won a very poor champion last year ,and hasnt performed this year , sorry he aint got a hope in HELL ! my friend
Getting near to the moment of truth and I fear I’d jinx something for us if I didn’t come on here championing the little fella
Tough season, some patchy work at home… I think he just achieved too much too soon and can’t quite cope with having nothing left to aim for
He’ll be right there two from home and we’ll see if he still loves the hill
C’mon Katchit!!!!
Not wishing to rain on your parade but Katchit won a very poor champion last year ,and hasnt performed this year , sorry he aint got a hope in HELL ! my friend
Which bit of "not wishing to rain on your parade" did you actually mean?
He had no chance in the Triumph, he had no chance last year… excuse me for not bursting into tears at your provision of startling insight!
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