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Had a conversation a little while back with ‘Irish Stamp’, in which i stated that Celestial Halo wouldnt finish out of the top 3, in my opinion.
I have to say, i still possess that belief, and the 10/1, 9/1 in places, is a very good EW bet.
Welcome to the forum Robbie.
By the way, Whiteoak is a she and she’ll probably be targeted at the mares race that she won last year rather than the Champion Hurdle. May explain why her price is so big.
Welcome to the forum Robbie.
By the way, Whiteoak is a she and she’ll probably be targeted at the mares race that she won last year rather than the Champion Hurdle. May explain why her price is so big.[/quote
Sorry I meant her, she won the mares race last year, but according to the RP entries she’s goin for the champion, I got 100-1 for the place @ BF. That is value
Binocular is looking more and more of a certainty to me. It is strange how thw Champion Hurdle throws up these good things,who everyone tries to find something to beat it. Way back to Persian War, Comedy of Errors et al, it has always been the same. Something about never looking a gift horse in the mouth I think.
There is a very small question about coming up the hill,but the way he runs I see him winning by 10 lengths. Odds against is almost a steal. Hope so anyway.Nic Mordin’s reflections on Saturday’s race are interesting. He has given Celestial Halo quite a high rating for the race, but expresses reservations that on that showing Celestial Halo will be good enough to win the CH. He points out that on Saturday Celestial Halo took half a second more to get to the line from the last than they did in the juvenile hurdle on the same card and a fifth of a second more than in the staying hurdle. He suggests that to rank as a viable Champion Hurdle candidate Celestial Halo should have been able to finish a lot more strongly than that.
I think he makes a fair enough point, though perhaps it would be worth adding that both the juvenile hurdle and the staying hurdle had a slightly more competitive finish from the last hurdle than was the case in Celestial Halo’s race. Also, Walsh started to wind it up pretty early with Celestial Halo and the race with Osana was sustained for a fair way, so some tying up nearer the line was possibly to be expected. When they started to race, Osana and Celestial Halo certainly pretty quickly put some ground between them and Afsoun, which is perhaps an indicator of the amount of effort the front two were expending in that drive to the line from some way out on soft ground. Afsoun came back a bit as the front two tired towards the line. If I were a supporter of Celestial Halo or Osana, marginally I would be more encouraged than discouraged by how each ran on Saturday.
I am very split in my view about the likely winner of the CH this time. I mostly agree with those who think the race is Binocular’s to lose on anything other than very soft ground. Any doubt I have about Binocular winning mainly rests on the issue of whether there is a horse (or horses) with sufficient ability and disposition to really stretch the field with a fierce, sustained pace. Arguably, Osana might come close to being that horse and possibly that would boost Celestial Halo’s chances considerably, as it would probably play to his strengths to tuck in behind Osana for most of the way before taking it on himself to make it a real test of stamina in a hard, sustained drive to the line. Whether Celestial Halo has sufficient class to be able to lay up with the best that Osana can offer and then still find more to take it up if necessary over the last couple of furlongs, it will be interesting to see. It will be even more interesting to see how Binocular would cope with a really searching pace. What would be ironic though – and disappointing – would be if we find the field is not strong enough to ensure a pace any stronger than the pace set in last year’s CH
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Binocular struggles to win even off a fairly modest race time. (In fairness, I think the strong wind and strong early pace was partly responsible for the pace collapsing a bit in the middle of the CH race last season.)
If Celestial Halo took this time to get to the line last weekend it surely must kill off Osana’s chances completely by that logic.
Its all relative. Nick Mordin offers thoughtful insight at times but at other times what he says doesn’t hold a lot of water.
Nick Mordin offers thoughtful insight at times but at other times what he says doesn’t hold a lot of water.
Bit like the rest of us then, Ian
Silent Oscar out for the season, I see. An outsider for the CH, for sure, but would have been interesting to see him out again to see if he could build on a very good performance in beating Macs Joy last time out at the Punchestown Festival in 2007.
Has the trainer indicated that the CH rather than the DN Mares race will be the target for Whiteoak? A lightly raced horse, so perhaps not so easy to dismiss for the CH with the mare’s allowance, albeit still quite an outsider. Good mix of speed and stamina, at least. Let’s hope she jumps a bit straighter this season – she went out to the right at times last season, I think.
There seemed to be talk of her going for the stayers earlier in the season, but that obviously isn’t the case now..I’m actually going to take the 100/1 on offer at the moment just in case she does go for the Champion.I think that was a good spot by robbiecon and it’s worth a bit of a gamble [nothing ventured and all that….]
Doesn’t look much of a classic now – the much criticised (yep you Fists!) old stagers Brave Inca, Hardy "Useless Boat" Eustace, and Sublimity have proved to be still the best that Ireland can offer.
Binocular looks the part, but in my mind we haven’t had one decent British 2m hurdle conditions race yet this season. Not getting the heart racing this one.
I’m quite interested in whats been said about Whiteoak.
Whiteoak needs Good ground.
At this rate, she’ll have to run on the Flat instead!
Aintree, and then the Swinton Hurdle?
"moehat" wrote: I think she can handle good to soft.
According to today’s RP mccain has commented on whiteoaks gallop on Friday, he says it was the highlight of the day, also she,ll b twice the horse come the festival.
She going out on saturday, i reccomend you reading it.Lack of experience could be a big problem but I’m keeping my eye on any changes in the market about her..; trainer said she was one of the highest rated staying hurdlers last season and she would, of course get the mare’s allowance in the champion…interesting stuff methinks!
At 50s, I think, White Oak’s well worth a punt. She won’t be the first mare to win it by any means. She has speed and class in abundance, apparently.
I believe they still haven’t made up their mind. There seems to be a sense -right or wrong – that neither Binocular, Katchit or Sublimity have it in the bag. Though Binocular’s been tipped as the banker of the meeting by someone.
I have a little on Jered and Muirhouse at decent prices; Jered because of Mordin’s awe at his acceleration, and Muirhouse, another whose chances he admires, is beautifully bred. I just wonder how many of my wee punts will go down the pan, with three or more bets in the one race, without finding the winner!
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