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As regards him staying the Derby trip, surely the best evidence is his 3yo full brother, Bertinelli. He finished a close third in the King George V handicap over 12F at Royal Ascot. He was giving 10lbs to the winner, Desert Hero, now rated 113, and 12lbs to the runner-up, Valiant King, now rated 109.
Unfortunately, Bertinelli hasn’t run since, but that form earned him a 109 rating at the time and looks worth more like 120 now.
I’ve no problem with people gushing , he was impressive yesterday , however I’m not biting on the Derby or triple crown threat as they are unlikely
“I’ve no problem with people gushing”
I can’t stand it, but each to their own.
Quelle surprise: City Of Troy is the lead headline on Luck On Sunday.
I know little about breeding, but this from a friend of mine when I raised the question and also mentioned that perhaps there would be a negative influence about training-on via the Scat Daddy blood.
Hope you’re well. I’m far from an expert on bloodlines but you raise an interesting point about the stallion sons of Scat Daddy.
Caravaggio, No Nay Never, Sioux Nation etc were all fast two-year-olds themselves and a fair amount of the mares sent to them were precocious as fillies on the track.
So you could argue their progeny are almost bred to be ahead of the pack at two before their peers catch them up at three.
They’re all young enough stallions that it’s hard to be dogmatic, which is the point I make about Justify; we just can’t know at this stage.
Justify looks like he might be different to the other three. For a start he is out of a mare by Ghostzapper, who won a Breeders’ Cup Classic over 10f on dirt.
And Justify himself stretched out to 12f in the Belmont.
Forever Together was campaigned as an Oaks-type filly as you know, and I had forgotten until watching back the replay just now, quite how badly hampered she was at Epsom.
I’d say there’s loads of encouragement that City Of Troy will get 12f, and get it well, while he looks by far the most likely Guineas winner at this stage.
After that, it’s down to how much Coolmore want to win the Triple Crown.
He’d be the best horse to run in the St Leger since Camelot by a country mile.
John Magnier in particular seems to want to have a Triple Crown winner. Maybe it will depend on what else they have for races like the Juddmonte International and, most crucially, the Irish Champion (a race Aidan puts a huge amount of store by).
I like you love an ante-post wager and if you weigh it all up, 12-1 seems like a big price.“If he wins the Guineas and Derby, the next thing they’ll want, for stallion marketing purposes, is a Group One victory over a mile and a quarter, so it’ll be the International or the Irish Champion”.
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True Glad, usually breeders want a Derby winner to have proved he has the speed to win a one and a quarter mile Group 1. Guineas being early on in a three year old’s career does need more stamina than later Group 1 miles, but it is still a Group 1 mile. If a Derby winner has already proved he has the speed to win a Guineas then – depending on how he won – it’s even better than a mile and a quarter Group 1.
Camelot only scrambled home in the Guineas by staying on, from a below par field. If City Of Troy were to win the Guineas in the style of Nijinsky, breeders would not need a mile and a quarter Group 1.
Value Is EverythingAs I said Joe, imo City Of Troy is unlikely to stay the Leger trip and had the Lads not made any comment about the Leger I would’ve thought he’s unlikely to run. However, given their comments there is obviously a greater chance he’ll be at Donny. So – even though personally being very doubtful of his stamina – value is everything and wouldn’t put you off the 12/1.
Value Is EverythingWith respect, if City Of Troy wins the Triple Crown after such a dazzling 2-y-o career, I doubt that many breeders will be crossing out his name saying ‘Nah, never won a top race at 10f’
Assuming he trains on in the same vain it will be interesting to see his path next season.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
City Of Troy has been awarded an RPR of 124 for yesterday’s success. For comparison purposes, Pinatubo was rated 128 after running away with the 2019 National Stakes.
It’s nice to see some sensible reaction to yesterday’s win; Nick Luck called it “a performance for the ages” this morning. 🙄
Yes, City Of Troy is an exciting prospect and looks superior to his peers at this stage but the comparisons to Frankel are utter guff at the moment.
Certainly wouldn’t compare with Frankel for now – though Frankel’s Dewhurst got a Racing Post Rating of 126. They are wholly different types. Frankel was all speed from the gate with the insane ability to eke it out over 10f. City Of Troy has raced like an experienced horse since his debut and seems to take quite a bit of stoking up to reach optimum racing pace, but he too looks like he can maintain that top speed much longer than normal and still be tanking passing the post.
We all read performances a different way, thankfully. Although it is far and away more sensible to analyze an horse on the basis of what he has done, I take more pleasure in speculating on what I believe he can yet do. Turning out to be wrong never lessens my satisfaction when I reflect on my initial opinion, and never stops me putting up anything else I rate special.
Would it be fair to say there might be some soundness issues in the family? The dam didn’t run after the Irish Oaks which is very unlike Coolmore even the average fillies keep running until they win something and his brother has been awol since Royal Ascot
There’s nothing wrong with hoping that a horse becomes a superstar- that’s what we all want.
What I can’t abide is inexcusably over the top hype, well in excess of the horse’s actual achievements- that goes for any horse, not just City Of Troy, incidentally.
The boys hope he will be as popular as Frankel should he go on to achieve what they hope, that will never happen. There was more to it than Frankel being an equine superstar, there was the whole story behind it mastered by Henry Cecil in a very unassuming manner whilst he dealt with his own personal problems.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Even though I am invested in City Of Troy emotionally and (more importantly) financially, I agree with Glad about the comparisons with Frankel being inappropriate.
The media always have to lazily label something “The New…”. Although, to be fair, Moore and Tabor have both mentioned the F word.
He is an outstanding two year old, of that there is no doubt. Let’s wait and see what he does as a three year old, although I hope he is every bit as good as I believe he is.
Spot on with regard to the sire line, Steeplechasing. Justify may have run at 3, but he did one short season (6 runs). Perhaps he was too valuable to continue with past June, after some sort of injury, but his own sire was finished by May of his 3yo career (last win March). His grandsire and great grandsire deteriorated at 3, never won after 2 and went on to become noted sires of 2yo. Another interesting note is that, prior to Justify rocking up at the sales, his dam’s progeny had made 60k or less. None of his expensive siblings since have lived up to their price tag. He also failed a drug test prior to the Triple Crown, which should have ruled him out but was swept under the carpet.
Thanks Louise, further grist to the training-on mill. I wonder what it is in these super 2-y-olds losing their sparkle the following season? It cannot all be down to precociousness or being ahead of their rivals in physique. Psychological, physical, a combination?
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