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I was hoping that City of Troy would be a good one, and that was as good a I could have hoped for there.
I’ve drifted away from betting 2 year olds for the classics ap, but I could make an exception here. I though that that was a lovely debut
I’m hoping that he can run a big race in The Superlative Stakes this weekend, but it’s not the race that I really would have wanted him to run in.
I have bet him now for the guineas at 16-1
That was really impressive today, and I just hope that he can back this up next year now
I’m going to keep an eye out for a few specials for him this year, just for a bit of an interest.
16-1 2000 Guineas
20-1 DerbyI’d like to think that there must be something out there, but I’m not sure where to look?
Thank you Nathan. It doesn’t happen too often for me, and probably won’t again, so I’m just going to enjoy the ride.
If the great Constitution Hill deserved – and he did – a thread of his very own at TRF, I believe City Of Troy does too.
It takes a lot to get me excited about any racehorse but, like many others, this one has captured my imagination very quickly.
He has what I would call a Transatlantic middle-distance pedigree – by Justify out of a Galileo mare – and his achievements already are remarkable.
Justify never raced until February as a 3yo, Galileo had a solitary outing at two at the end of October.
Yet, it’s only mid-July and this 2yo has already run twice, won twice, and on Saturday he put up both a cracking relative overall time and outstanding relative closing sectionals in running away with the 7f Superlative Stakes.
He looks incredibly uncomplicated, a real “Am I bothered, though?” attitude in the preliminaries, more laidback than Dylan off The Magic Roundabout.
And in the race?
Strong winds, up there with zero cover – yeah, man, whatever.
And then this relentless, remorseless, rival-demoralising, surge that simply took him further and further clear.
To paraphrase the late Peter O’Sullevan at his most quietly dry witted: “He led and then just kept on improving his position.”
I watched Justify’s Triple Crown on Sunday night on YouTube and and was struck by the similarities, to my eye, in racing style.
Justify was always up there and just kept going and his first two Triple Crown wins were achieved in atrocious weather and ground conditions.
Some say his jockey slowed it down in front in the Belmont, and he did, but I’d still say Justify stayed the 1m4f well enough as a time of 2m28.18s and a respectable, if not outstanding, Beyer figure of 101 attests.
And Galileo, of course was a thorough stayer at 1m4f – you don’t win The Derby, the Irish Derby and the King George unless you relish every yard of the mile and a half.
I think City Of Troy too will thrive when upped to 1m4f in The Derby next year.
But what of the interim and is he a 2,000 Guineas colt too?
Well, he has no right to be this good this soon, but he clearly is.
They will want a 2yo Group 1 on his CV and the National Stakes surely beckons, where I expect a bloodless victory at something mad like 1/7 in a tiny field.
After that?
The Dewhurst or Futurity are there for the taking on what I’ve seen so far, but they might just put him away after the National Stakes to keep him fresh for next year.
As for the 2,000 Guineas, the dam won the Fillies’ Mile at two and Justify won at 7f, 1m, 1m1f (Santa Anita Derby) and 1m1f110yds (Preakness) so, while it’s a myth the Rowley Mile is a stiff eight, I could still see him having too much quality for his rivals in the same way Nashwan, Sea The Stars and Camelot (all subsequent Derby winners) did.
Plus I think this colt could turn out better than all three of them, even Sea The Stars.
I’m lucky enough to be on at 12/1 for the 2,000 Guineas and 16/1 The Derby (others here like Kris have even longer prices).
But I wouldn’t want to lay even the 3/1 and 4/1 respectively now available.
I think this colt can usurp Baaeed for the title of “Greatest since Frankel” and, actually, at this stage of his career, he’s achieved more than Frankel had, though admittedly by the simple expedient of making his racecourse debut prior to 13th August!
City Of Troy could turn out a Pinatubo, or a Little Big Bear, but both his pedigree and physical appearance suggest otherwise to me.
You’re only as good as the last great racehorse you championed a year ahead, I can’t live off Constitution Hill forever, so I’m saying City Of Troy is not only going to win the 2,000 Guineas and The Derby, but prove one of the all-time great winners of those two Classics.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I hope you are right, ID.
I try not to get carried away by 2yo’s. I have seen too many get hyped up after their debuts only to disappoint.
But there was something about this horse that looked and felt different. I have never seen a horse look like he was going so fast that he was going to try to gallop through the wall at the end of The Curragh! I simply had to back him for the Guineas after that.
I would have been disappointed if he had got beaten on Saturday. But I was not prepared for the performance he produced. He was sensational.
A 2yo Group 1 ought to be a formality. Then it will be a nervous wait through the winter to see if he trains on.
I assume he will be trained for the Guineas and Derby. With his American sire, the thought did cross my mind about whether they consider the Kentucky Derby instead. I hope not!
Well done Kris for picking up on this fellow before what was clear to you was clear to the rest of us.
“I try not to get carried away by 2yo’s. I have seen too many get hyped up after their debuts only to disappoint.”
Same, CAS, I’ve seen too many disappoint and they weren’t all pint-sized ponies like Pinatubo.
I was at York in 1982 when Gorytus hammered subsequent Mill Reef winner Salieri by seven lengths in a time that compared well to Assert in what is now the International Stakes!
I followed Gorytus to Doncaster and in the paddock he looked more like a 4yo, never mind a 3yo, than a juvenile!
He stormed home there as well.
By Nijinsky out of Glad Rags, he was bred to be even better at three.
But he wasn’t – Richard Baerlein always claimed the colt was “got at” before he was tailed off in the Dewhurst and was never the same again, but he simply might not have trained on.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"After his debut, I wanted to back him more for the Derby rather than the Guineas but only one or two firms were quoting prices and I did not have accounts with them. I just backed him for the Guineas on the Betfair Sportsbook instead.
I think I may still be tempted by the 4/1. It usually goes against the grain to back a horse at a single figure price for a race that is months away. The only time I can recall doing so was Constitution Hill – and that turned out all right!
Perhaps this thread could be moved to “Horse Racing”? The Constitution Hill thread was there and was one of the most popular on the forum.
I took literally all the 3/1 Constitution Hill I could get on but, having fortunately made a relatively late decision to back City Of Troy before Saturday I don’t need to take the 3s and 4s now available.
Would I if I wasn’t already on?
Yes – though not with quite as much confidence tbh as I didn’t have one iota of doubt with Constitution Hill as there was no future weight-for-age improvement unknown.
The biggest leap in the dark with every long-range ante-post Classic bet with a 2yo is surely the individual weight-for-age progression.
One glance at the table tells us the enormous amount they improve ON AVERAGE between now and May and June next year at 1m and 1m4f and there are the most enormous individual fluctuations within that mean.
If City Of Troy literally doesn’t improve one ounce between now and those Classics he won’t even be placed in either.
And I’m personally pretty sure that’s what happened to Arazi.
But, as stated, both appearance and pedigree give me hope plus I’m delighted the National Stakes will be his last race at two.
One thing is for sure – Kris and you have got tremendous value and kudos to both of you.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Thank you all, but he still has to go on, and I think that he can.
I’ve been asked if I would be happy for the thread to be moved to the Horse Racing Board, and although I don’t quite understand why it has to be moved, I also said yea, as I don’t have a serious problem with it either.
I’m definitely in the camp that hope he is top class but until he does it I’ll just keep my fingers crossed. What horses do at 2 isn’t that important part from stud value. Galileo and justify showed that and how they develop from 2 to 3 is the crux of it. I know everything screams he will be better at 3 and over 10 and 12f but you just never know. I go back to try my best and diesis. Diesis was a fabulous looking horse I thought would be the next nijinsky. Though he was very good he never quite reached the heights I’d hoped for. He was a big success at stud including ramruna and Halling.
I think it’s a fact of forum life that more people read this folder than any of the others and I think it’s a great decision by admin to move this particular thread here and a nice gesture by ante-post shrewdie Kris to agree to it.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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