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The New One
My tent or yours
Vroom vroom mag
Yanworth
Chitebello
Gray wolf riverRichard harper must be really stuck for €1500. 6th place prize money for entering a mare rated 63 in a grade one race. I don’t think the 7 pounds will make much difference.
New one – decent performance the last day but beat a poor field
My tent or yours – was getting 7 pounds from the new one the last day and lost by 3.5 lengths. If he wins it will be very disappointing for the rest of the contenders.
Yanworth – interesting horse, I’m not his biggest fan, struggled to beat Lil rockerfella the last day despite receiving 4 pounds. That form wouldn’t be good enough for me to have much confidence.Chitebello – should be capable of improving but probably not enough to win this.
Vroom vroom mag – best form in the book. Beat mtoy last year more comfortably than the new one did a few weeks ago. Had a good come back run in fairyhouse, despite being given too much to do she only went down a nose to an exceptional mare in Apple’s jade. It was her first run of the season against apples jade who had the benefit of two previous runs.
I think VVM is the best horse, the new one is in decent form and that’s what I believe the forecast will be.
No bet for me wex, but having bet Vroum Vroum for The Champion Hurdle, and having Ch’Tibello at big odds for it as well, those are the 2 I’ll be cheering on.
The New One should be able to get a soft lead, with no other front-runner in the field. Improved for those tactics at Cheltenham and 7/2 looks good value. Some may think he hasn’t got enough speed for this, but – provided he makes a strong pace of equal fractions – don’t see it as a problem… Particularly when both Yanworth and Vroum Vroum Mag are coming back in trip and were thought of as stayers. Although I do not hold to that theory, they are both stayers at 2 miles rather than speed horses. The two speed horses are: My Tent Or Yours – 10/1 could look big if Kempton doesn’t get much rain. But will he run?
ChTibello is progressive but needs to find a lot to figure here.Value Is EverythingThere is only one dyed-in-the-wool true two-miler in the field – MTOY. There’s a very strong chance that ChTibello is also best at two miles but not yet enough evidence to prove that. On that alone, both are overpriced and given that MTOY finds winning so difficult these days, ChTibello looks excellent value at 12s. A straight forecast might well be in order if MTOY runs!
The Skelton horse surprised many with the style of his Haydock victory (his trainer among them), but it can be costly to write such results off as flukes. From what I can see the yard does not appear to be in great form, but GT will be able to comment more on that.
LIKE GINGE SAID THE NEW ONE CAN HAVE AN EASY LEAD. ALSO HE JUMPED A LOT BETTER THAN HE HAS FOR A LONG WHILE. SO ON DECENT ENOUGH GROUND I THINK HE CAN WIN THIS
Mtoy was beaten comfortably by VVM over two miles last season. He finds nothing off the bridle and is in much worse form this year than when VVM beat him in may.
I’ve gone for ChTibello at 14/1 at the exchanges. He won easily last time against My Tent or Yours and he is young and keeps improving. I think he can produce the same level as The New One and might surprise here.
I’m a big MTOY fan but will hope he’s beaten here as took the 10/3 available with 365 at the beginning of the week on Vroum Vroum Mag
Definitely out nwalton. Almost impossible to back one of Willie’s horses,
until it appears on the day of the racethanks BIG G just i see no price on oddschecker,just gone up on RP site
thanks again mateFrom a completely non financial point of view I’m hoping Yanworth wins and wins well. The country is crying out for a viable Champion Hurdle contender to serve it up to the Irish. The New One and My Tent have both failed when at their best so from a patriotic view I’d be disappointed if either claimed this. One British trained Champion Hurdler in the past six years (Rock On Ruby) is not a good stat.
So come on Yanworth, defeat the old guard on Boxing Day and go into the New Year as Britian’s great Champion Hurdle hope.
I’m a big MTOY fan but will hope he’s beaten here as took the 10/3 available with 365 at the beginning of the week on Vroum Vroum Mag
Are you having a laugh Mullins!?!?!?
I’d done VVM with Valseur Lido for the Lexus and Thistlecrack for KG in a trixie as well. How irrritating.
Will take the 5/1 on MTOY now and hope he finally gets suited ground.
I’m a big MTOY fan but will hope he’s beaten here as took the 10/3 available with 365 at the beginning of the week on Vroum Vroum Mag
Are you having a laugh Mullins!?!?!?
I’d done VVM with Valseur Lido for the Lexus and Thistlecrack for KG in a trixie as well. How irrritating.
Will take the 5/1 on MTOY now and hope he finally gets suited ground.
Why would u blame Mullins? Surely you know he never makes up his mind until final declarations. If your backing horses just one the basis of what they are entered in then you’ll lose a lot of money
From a completely non financial point of view I’m hoping Yanworth wins and wins well. The country is crying out for a viable Champion Hurdle contender to serve it up to the Irish. The New One and My Tent have both failed when at their best so from a patriotic view I’d be disappointed if either claimed this. One British trained Champion Hurdler in the past six years (Rock On Ruby) is not a good stat.
So come on Yanworth, defeat the old guard on Boxing Day and go into the New Year as Britian’s great Champion Hurdle hope.
I suspect Yanworth is a dog who has yet to bark. I hope his temperament holds up, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
My predictions of adjusted ratings for this race are:
(+) = 5
The New One 175. RPR had it 165 for last time, me 168, the handicapper 167. With another well-judged front running ride I think he can reproduce that form on less testing going if pushed to.
My Tent Or Yours 167. I rated him 157 last time. Supposedly likes this going better so I will give him the benefit of doubt he can get a bit closer to TNO but has become awfully one-paced on softer and doesn’t appear to be the horse he was, Geraghty deserts.
Yanworth 160(+) so possibly 165. I can see why Barry would go for the horse with scope to improve but I wonder if that may be more a comment on MTOY. Yanworth looked unlimited in a couple of races last season but was exposed for pace on Good in the Neptune as he had been on the same going in the ’15 Champion Bumper (possible excuses: poor ride and met trouble respectively). These are the only two times he has run on Good and his only two previous Grade 1 contests. After his reappearance at Ascot all the talk was of going up in trip. Due to the continued progression of Unowhatimeanharry connections have decided to see whether the horse is a viable Champion Hurdle contender – they may as well find out. Playing around with figures from other ground/trip combinations I have tried to find a figure for the horse’s first Hurdles run at the combination of 2 miles & Good. I came up with 153, however, his reappearance run was about 4 better than I would have expected at that day’s conditions which suggests he may have improved for a summer break and the trainer was adamant he would come on for his reappearance so maybe 158 but ultimately I’m just not sure the horse will be quick enough at class/trip/ground hence my (+).
Ch’Tibello 153. Horse is showing no progression at 2 miles on ground ranging from Heavy to Good. Last four RPRs: 144, 145, 146, 146 none of them in Grade 1.
The New One is my clear choice so I backed him to Win, price happens to be 2/1.
ChTibello is progressive but needs to find a lot to figure here.
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