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Having read and digested all the stats, trends and going I have come down on one of the well fancied runners and also a long shot:
The main bet is NEVER CAN TELL [/color:1bx0u45h]who hits all the trends although much more rain will dampen enthusiasm. He races up with the pace, has a great draw which has proved surprisngly vital for such a long race and has course form. Booking of Lanfranco is another bonus as they combined to win the Cesarewitch. 8s is a very fair EW price and was gratefully accepted.
Tominator must be a danger but I am leaving this one alone. Overturn is a grand horse who always does his connections very proud BUT surely the weight will stop him this time!
My outsider to consider is DAZINSKI[/color:1bx0u45h], a lowly weighted front runner who could improve for the extra distance. Mark Tomkins enjoys these longer races and at 25s is worth a couple of tenners EW.
Good Luck all who play, any other shouts out there?
I like Never Can Tell, and Tominator could be a threat, so they are my two against the field.
Will be made up if Overturn wins, though!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Was at Catterick races last night and one of the lads who rides out at Mark Johnstons yard told me despite the draw they are very confident that Gulf of Naples will win now that the ground has come in his favour
HGM; you mean Kiama Bay; trainer says may not get the trip, but he’s won at Chester and on soft; also much better going left handed. Was looking at him last night, but trainers comment put me off. Have you heard anything from the yard?
I think this has Torminator’s name written all over it.
He won the Northumberland Plate as a 4yr old last year running on strongly at the finish. That was over 2m (good to soft). He ran a further 4 times, his finishing figures being 8,2,5 and 4th. On the face of it that might not look overly encouraging, but on the first 3 of those races,two being over 1m6f and 1 being over 1m 5f, he was running on better than anything else at the finish. His last race he looked like he had had a long season.
I think he screams out for 2m +, and that is exactly what he has this time. Paul Pickard knows the horse very well and is worth having on him with his 3lb claim.
The draw, even though this is over 2m2f, has proved to be important in the past, and with him being drawn 2 that is a bonus.
You can still get 11s with a couple of bookies (as low as 8s with some).
Any VC account holders out there, will be like me getting a free bet in this, if they placed bets in both the 2000 and 1000 Guineas. The offer was to mach the average of the 2 bets as a free bet in the Chester Cup. Good old Victor…..I hope it costs him money
HGM; you mean Kiama Bay; trainer says may not get the trip, but he’s won at Chester and on soft; also much better going left handed. Was looking at him last night, but trainers comment put me off. Have you heard anything from the yard?
John is stating the obvious Moe. He’s in great form Tom Eaves says he’ll stay and I’ve got my fingers crossed.
I heard John’s wife Sue still makes the best cracklin in Yorkshire if that helps
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