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Cheltenham, Thursday

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  • #2595
    dandan
    Member
    • Total Posts 199

    2.0 Cheltenham KINGS ADVOCATE win (10/1+ Betfair), RASHARROW each-way (20/1 PP)

    A tough looking race as usual and its hard to fancy anything with great certaintly. Of the market principals, New Little Bric looks like he has plenty of weight to carry, while King Revo has yet to fully convince me over fences and the rest are inseperable on their best form. King’s Advocate strikes me as one who could be better weighted than most. Representing Kicking King’s connections, he has been consistant in decent handicaps in Ireland without being pushed too hard. Tom Taafe knows how to lay a horse out for Cheltenham and I’m quite sure the Jewson has been King’s Advocate’s target all along. He is a sound jumper who will appreciate todays conditions and gallop right to the line, and he looks like value at 10/1.

    I’ll have a small saver on Rasharrow, who was a classy hurdler but has struggled to get his correct ground over fences thus far. I think his good chase performances have come in spite of the ground he has been going on, and given that he boasts some decent course form and looks like he’ll be suited by the step upn in trip, 20/1 looks chancing each-way especially if you can get paid on 5 places.

    2.35 Cheltenham MONETS GARDEN to win (5/2 Betfair)

    Strike off his Kempton disappointment at Christmas and you’re left with a very classy horse who has probably yet to show what he is truly capable of. This is the perfect race for him in my opinion, and with Our Vic yet to convince me at this time of year, Racing Demon looking an out and out nutcase, and Taranis looking like he needs to find a few pounds, I think Monet’s Garden will take the beating granted a clear round of jumping.

    3.15 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER to win (5/1 Betfair), TEMOIN each-way already advised

    No way could I back Black Jack Ketchum at his current price given his last run. Even if the ground was his excuse, I think Inglis Drever could be a better horse, and after a promising effort against Blazing Bailey last time, I think Howard Johnson’s charge should be spot on and no horse will appreciate the conditions as much as he. We are already on Temoin at 33/1, and I don’t see any need to go in again at 16’s. He has looked very classy at times and if he settles well, I think the drying ground is in his favour and the blinkers could help him concentrate- he is a real dark horse and I would not be surprised to see him win this.

    4.0 Cheltenham IDOLE FIRST each-way (22/1 Betfair)

    Idole First actually pretty well handicapped on his recent form, and given that Cheltenham seems to bring out the best in him, he looks a very fair price at 22/1. He races from a handy weight of 10-7, and the big field and 2m5f trip are ideal. Trainer Venetia Williams has been incredible form this year, and I think this fella represents her best festival chance. This will only be his fourth run since last April, and given that it is only his 9th over fences and he was rated 4lb higher over hurdles, he may still be progressive. Certainly, he has fewer questions to answer than most of these and I’ll be having a nice each-way bet.

    4.40 Cheltenham BALLYTRIM each-way (22/1 Betfair)

    Willie Mullins has his team in fine form, and despite the fact that he has questions to answer regarding today’s trip, I find it very interesting Mullins has stepped Ballytrim up to an extreme distance so early in his career. He shapes as though he wants 3m+ at least, and with a leading amateur booked and the positive vibes from the stable regarding his chances, he looks fair value for a small each-way bet for those who are mad enough to play in a race like this.

    5.20 Cheltenham FREETOWN (27/1 Betfair), OSCAR PARK each-way (24/1 Betfair)

    An absolute minefield of a race and I’ll be playing to small stakes with two at prices. Freetown is well suited by the demands of this race, which he won five years ago. He isn’t getting any younger but he doesn’t seem to have lost any of his ability and the booking of Ruby Walsh for Lenny Lungo is eyecatching. Oscar Park has recently changed hands and boasts some very useful looking form behind Karanja and Cloudy Lane over the past year. His regular jockey takes the ride and he may be hepled by the two classy sorts at the top of the handicap keeping the weights down- he usually carries 11 stone plus in these handicaps which many horses struggle to do. I’ll play each-way at around 20/1.

    #70772
    Andrew Hughes
    Member
    • Total Posts 1904

    Excellent work, Dandan. Hope you had plenty on!

    #70773
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    Shockingly good tipping. Brilliant!

    #70774
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8798

    Great stuff Dandan

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