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- Total Posts 17716
If Barber’s Shop wins the Gold Cup I’ll be amazed and will have no hesitation in labelling the form ‘ordinary’.
Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are the two I have backed for the race, and although the ground should be good by now it still looks to be a fair test (due in no small part to the pace of each and every race thus far). I don’t think there’s much point in betting on the race again, so it’s very much a ‘sit back and enjoy’ moment. If Kauto Star wins again, I won’t be too disappointed.
i personally don’t think either will finish the race, Denman Pulled up Kauto maybe fall after not getting away with one. Neptune? just don’t fancy that either. Exotic (not McCoys year) Madison too far ahead of Denman & co last time!!!(too wierd that race) The Queen might have a good day probably have a watching punt on that. A very interesting renewal for the wrong reasons?
I know what you mean about Denamn and Kauto and most of the rest – but say Denman was closer to full fitness and he just blew up/very rusty – what would that do to the Madison form (I know he doesnt really have form round chelt) – the betting market might look different if we knew Denman was closer to full fitness and Madison had just beaten him on a flat track. That was my first impression after the race – they both pulled a long way clear of the rest. I dont really think "not McCoys year" and "weird race" make much of a difference. What puts me off Exotic is that he had his perfect chance in 2007 and didnt have the turn of foot then in a slow race – however much I want him to win
but given my previous record of backing losing horses and them going on to win the same race years later it wouldnt surprise me 
i’m not trying to put anyone off anything or wish bad luck on any participant but the form is so yoyoish i’m scratching around for a fun punt. Beware those outsiders methinks? not long to go
What we don’t know is how much Barbers Shop, as a young horse, may be improving all the time; if Denman doesn’t win, his chance to win next year [according to the stats] is gone..but if Kauto wins he will be doing what no horse has ever done before..it’s a fascinating race but nothing like what we had in store last year. You’d have to say it’s there for the taking of a young improving horse.
yea nipper….
however i would love to see denman bounce back tomorrow, the ground is near perfect for kauto i would think, could do with more rain tonight to suit nipper, i just hope they all come home safe, i feel sick with worry already, after our bad start to week, with grize, yea not long now , goodluck with your bets people… 
x- Total Posts 158
couldnt help myself, ive had a large each way bet on
denman
the horse was only 60% fit when it had a bit of schooling work last time out and just had a operation. it wasnt right in its coat as it wasnt fit, now hes had the pipe opener into denman and a further 5 weeks to reach peak fitness you will see a completly different horse tomorrow. put it this way had they not fancied the horse to win then it would not be running. word will be spreading tomorrow and if this horse is right then it will go off about 5/2 joint fav with kauto star. TAKE THE EACH WAY 6/1 surely wont be out the 3 or is it first 4
couldnt help myself, ive had a large each way bet on
denman
the horse was only 60% fit when it had a bit of schooling work last time out and just had a operation. it wasnt right in its coat as it wasnt fit, now hes had the pipe opener into denman and a further 5 weeks to reach peak fitness you will see a completly different horse tomorrow. put it this way had they not fancied the horse to win then it would not be running. word will be spreading tomorrow and if this horse is right then it will go off about 5/2 joint fav with kauto star. TAKE THE EACH WAY 6/1 surely wont be out the 3 or is it first 4
5-2 tommorow?
that would mean kauto star would have to drift like hell and denman to have millions placed on him cant be having that with all the doubts about him.
The ground all week has been in question but for sure the ground is quicker on the chase course and this will suit kauto star and all being well he will win.There is noway Denman ran without being in their opinion "good order" at kempton.You don’t run a horse with heart problems less than fit.I just hope he gets home.
paceform.org
- Total Posts 158
couldnt help myself, ive had a large each way bet on
denman
the horse was only 60% fit when it had a bit of schooling work last time out and just had a operation. it wasnt right in its coat as it wasnt fit, now hes had the pipe opener into denman and a further 5 weeks to reach peak fitness you will see a completly different horse tomorrow. put it this way had they not fancied the horse to win then it would not be running. word will be spreading tomorrow and if this horse is right then it will go off about 5/2 joint fav with kauto star. TAKE THE EACH WAY 6/1 surely wont be out the 3 or is it first 4
5-2 tommorow?
that would mean kauto star would have to drift like hell and denman to have millions placed on him cant be having that with all the doubts about him.
yep 5/2 thats the way the odds would turn if the money came for denman
- Total Posts 17716
If Denman was anything like the horse he was when winning the race last year, Harry Findlay would already be shouting about how much he was due to collect. As it is he’s admitted to having had a ‘little bit’ on Neptune Collonges and I don’t see why Paul Nicholls would run five in the race were there only one in it (which there would surely be if he Denman was back to his best).
It’s obviously taking poor old Denman time to fully recover from his strained heart. If indeed he ever manages it. There was no evidence of his having regained full strength at Kempton. Anyone backing him tomorrow is taking a massive gamble. By contrast, Madison Du Berlais is in top form and is having a fine season. I’d rather back him. But overall, take out Kauto Star, and taking into account Denman’s problems, it’s a slightly substandard renewal.
Kauto Star stays 3m 2F at chelters as well as Binny stays 2 miles!
KS will shut up the doubters AGAIN. I do think 2/1 will look a FANTASTIC price in retrospect.
The only horse that could have beaten him is Denman….but where is he?
Zip
Cant choose between Denman and Kauto – should be Denman but i have fitness and stamina worries in that order. Neptune – dunno as I would have liked it soft – that only leaves me with Madison
with his great chelt record (maybe a little ew on BeauRanger if he can sneak into 3rd )Secretly I hope Denman presses home his advantage from the top of the hill and grinds them into the dust
After reading in what a sorry state DDenman was for so long after the race last year, I’ve gone right off the idea of betting on him. I hope he doesnt take too much out of himself again, win or lose.
My fancies now are for Star de Mohaison and, if it doesn’t rain much, and Alberta’s Run. They’re at attractive odds for a dabble but the Neptune Collonges seems to have the best form – assuming Kauto star doesn’t star again.
The ground will be perfect for Kauto and perhaps the race will be run to suit.
I don’t think The Tank will be asked to go the same pace he did last year, given his problems. I would expect connections to be fairly cautious and perhaps go a stride or two slower.
The tactics employed on Neptunes Collonges will be interesting. He would prefer softer ground, but in some respect the conditions may allow him to employ his own forceful tactics and last home.
Exotic Dancer still remains the value of the race and has an outside chance of success. The conditions will be perfect, he holds an impressive record at the track and looked better than ever at Leopardstown.
I couldn’t have Air Force One, despite the upbeat report from connections. He disappointed in the RSA last year and has failed to sparkle at the track on three occasions.
Albertas Run has a good ew shout. Again, will love conditions and saves his best for the track. The trip will be ideal, but he is hard to predict. Would love to see him in The National one day.
Madison and Barbers Shop are progressive, but hard to judge. They both need to improve again to figure. Star De Mohasion is talented, but remains a doubtful stayer.
Kauto Star is the most talented horse in the field, but has looked vulnerable away from Kempton recently. The weather has been kind and he comes into the race fresh.
Neptunes and Exotic Dancer come into the race at the top of their game and wil be hard to keep out of the frame.
A victory for Denman would be another great story and you can’t rule him out, but it’s asking a helluva lot.
I hope Kauto wins, but unlike Kempton I can’t say I’m confident. I’ll take him, Neptunes Collonges and Exotic Dancer to fill the first three.
C’mon, Kauto.
I will take madison and Neptune against the field as long a Denman doesnt turn up – and i think he might
Weel Paul Nichols in his own way has let the cat out of the bag in his own sweet way.. The man never quite says what he means but he always says it.
"If he goes of like he did last year he won’t get home"
Excuse me Paul but incase you don’t know Denman never made a move until the 1st fence second time round. It was that other horse of yours the big white one that made the running
"If he goes of like he did last year he won’t get home" Translted from Paul Nichols language into plain English means
"Denman is no where near 100% yet and will probably blow up about 4 from home" "He ‘s got no chance"
Much is down to what you think about how close Neptune Collonges got to Kauto Star last season.
Was it because Kauto Star run below par or has Neptune Collonges made massive improvement.
For me Kauto Star has only 2 horses to fear today: Himself and Exotic Dancer.
I think the only reasons he is not slight odds on for this are the fact Denman’s name apperars on the racecard and the stats say he can’t win.
Denman would be as well staying in his box and stuff the stats
2/1 is unbelievable value and I can’t believe how lucky I am holding my 7’s and 5’s
I would glady give up every penny I won from Binocular and Master Minded just to see Kauto Star do what no horse has ever done.Ruby would give every winner he has has this season to win this and if he does the cheer from Cheltenham will be heard in the highlands of Scotland.
BTW do yourselves a fav lads call Stan James and help yourself to 2/1 for the King George because one he breaks this stat he will be the 1st horse ever to win that 4 times and he’ll do that too.
Think of all those Xmas expenses wouldn’t it be lovely to get them all back the next day
A very confident FOF
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