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I have said on this forum since his heart problem surfaced that Denman would be very unlikely to be the same horse we saw last year.
Now I may be right or wrong,I’ve been wrong many times,but that is what betting is all about.Backing your judgement.
With this view on Denman I think the best bet in this race is to sell Denman on the spread market.If I’m right he will be pulled up which would mean a massive return.I really think they will look after him if he is struggling.
What do you lot think?The owner who’s a pro punter expressed misgivings that Denman will ever be the same again.
However, he says that Nicholls says he’s beginning to sparkle. And apparently the other owner is keen for him to run.
I could well be mistaken here, of course, but I would no more trust the pro punter’s statements cocnerning his horses than I would a "bookie" recommending a bet, whether for a horse to win or lose.
I won’t be at all surprised if Denman delivers the goods again. But it’s just an opinion.
Albertas’s Runs performance in the Sun Alliance was pretty smart, and in the meantme, Roll Along has shown 9lbs more improvement than him, though he was a year older. They’ve both improved significantly in the meantime, but it looks to me that Alberta’s Run was laid out for this year’s Gold Cup from that meeting to this.
Of course, if Denman isn’t back to his best and Kauto is, Alberta wouldn’t seem to have his speed. We’ll see, one way or another who’s The Man.
I agree.That half of the partnership has a history that is very dubious.That history doesnt promote trust.
Just a working boy to start with.
Lot of money getting thrown around on horses and betting.
Lot of 1/2 winners.Very few losers.
Denman will tell us for sure on Friday 13th.yea i agree with you others but i would still love to see the tank back at his best and poundin up the hill , think it could e anyones this time, i so cant wait
On the assumption Denman will be pulled soon what would be the best bets at current prices?
I think we would be assuming too much but to play along I would say there is only one decent bet to be had.
On all known form only Neptune Collonges 5/1 and Exotic Dancer 10/1 have a chance of beating Kauto Star.
At the current price of 5/1 Neptune Collonges I wouldn’t back him.
Look at the facts.1. Ruby Walsh stated Kauto Star was never going at any point.
2. Kauto Star had beaten off NC before crashing through the last.
So unless Kauto Star has gone back a good bit and Neptune Collonges has improved an awful lot I just can’t see him revering last season’s placings.
He should be placed again but at a miserable 5/1 the best you can hope for is to get your stake back with a tiny bit on top.
Madison De Burlais: Irrespective of Denman not being right this horse was pulling his jockeys arms out for most of the race. He was absoluely running away with him and I’m not so sure Denman at his best, round Kempton, would have got this horse at it too easily but appearances can be deceptive. With the rest running no sort of race it’s hard to judge that particular form
He seems to have improved immensly but he has never performed at Cheltenham which is a huge minus. Another minus is his Hennessy form: A 3 length win over Air Force One getting 4 lbs is not Gold Cup form.
He is very difficult to work out as all improving horses normally are. 8/1 is a fair price but I don’t think there is enough evidence to support him.
Exotic Dancer: Probably Jonjo O’Neill’s yard is, for once, virus free and everything he sends out seems to be running fairly well.
He has 5 lengths to find on Kauto Star on 2007 running. Jonjo made a very wise decision not to go to Ireland and if anyone can find the few yards required it’s him. He has an uncanny record at Cheltenham and doubting his training ability can be costly.
I think he will run a huge race and if Kauto Star has gone back a bit he will win the Gold Cup IMO. 12/1 is a great price considering he has l aready beaten NC. You could argue hat when 2nd it was a slow run race but he’s two years older and the trip may suit him better these days than some think. There’s at least a bit of value to be had if he is placed.
Kauto Star: Gold Cup winner and triple winner of the King George. Looked as good as ever and Paul Nichols reckons he is absolutely sparkling. Despite this being the Gold Cup 7/4 is a very good price. You are betting on a clear round as the rest is a formaility IMO. You can bet your life Ruby Walsh wants this one more than any horse he has ever ridden and I personally couldn’t oppose him.
Best bets for me Kauto Star 7/4 and Exotic Dancer 12/1
It must be something like 10th time lucky for Exotic to beat Kauto and yet
it would be no surprise to me if he finally does! I hope for Denmans sake he
(Denman) does not turn up for the race, i still cant believe that was the same physical specimen that ran in the Aon at Kempton, to the horse that won the Gold Cup, i would like to see him rested for another tilt next season!Word is that Denman will be declared NR tomorrow.
8.5 to lay him now then on Betfair!!
Well, I don’t know owt about him, but it’s a "first principles" thing, really. As a pro punter he’ll favour to maximise his profits over endearing himself to the racing public, just like the genial book-makers who are invited by the kindly TV folk to give us their tips!
There may well be a lot of uncertainty generated by other owners through their trainers’ warnings about betting on ther horses AP at that point, enabling them to be the first to avail themsleves at more advantageous prices. Of course, some of the warnings are bona fide and well-founded.
It’s basically a shark pool, with everyone in it to win it, and I’m actually surprised at the amount of honesty shown by TV tipsters, trainers, etc. on a day-to-day basis. As a shark-pool, it’s still part of an eco-system most of us who are lower down the food-chain can happily, if unprofitably survive.
Hey guys ive bin away with work in usa for the last few months but im back with a healthy stack off cash and a lot off antepost bets on and raring to go for the festival
I believe wen i left i flagged up sum poor bets and maybe sum that got a bit off value i got all the 11/2 5/1 i could on VPU to win the ryanair and im happy to see the horse is a 6/4 shot now i also advised pettifour and i learned the horse simply is not good enough…Kalhari king to win the arkle and CAJ to win the champ which ive lerned isnt good enough either enough off my waffling becuase i think i got my gold cup horse for this year!
The horse is Barbers shop from the nicky henderson team a young improving chaser who has improved from race to race he is fresh and i really believe can run a majour race.I think the furious pace and the hill at cheltenham will suit this horse down to the ground
Denman will go off at a searching gallop (for how long who knows maybe not the same horse) i honestly believe KS is the class act but a Gold cup with denman going offf like a tank will make KS make mistakes and feel it struggles to stay a really fast gold cup which i believe this race will be
I honestly believe the race will be run to suit Barbers Shop and im on at 33s win and place 25s 20s and 18s what do people think to the horses chance?….Have i gone mad over in the states lol
Hi Chelt King. You’ve reminded me about Pettifour. I’m thinking that both Pettifour and Mobaasher will do better in a fast run race. It has prompted me to have a place bet on him now, at bigger odds than the small win bet I had in the autumn!
I’m on Barbers Shop, but I find it worrisome, these various horses that haven’t run for the past few months because the trainer was hoping for better ground. In their heart of hearts, do the trainers believe that their horses aren’t quite good enough, and don’t want to burst the bubble? I was downbeat a few weeks ago, when Henderson mentioned that BS still has a Ryanair entry. it made me think he was getting his excuse in early. I didn’t see the point in running him in the Ryanair, as he has already proven in the Jewson and Paddy Power that he is not good enough at 2m5f. 3m2f must be the way to go.
Yes i never thought that Barbers shop was going to run in the Ryanair because i really feel he would be done for toe and staying on strongly as he did to Imperial commander over CD who i beleive could have claims in this years Ryanair but thats a different topic (great race)
Barbers shop i just feel the trip and the pace off the race will suit the horse down to the ground and norm a solid jumper touch wood i feel if he jumps the last within 5 lengths off the lead he will have a great chance to win the race as KS stamina zaps away i just hope he is good enough and knows enough about the game to lay up with them and like i say if hes there two out wouldnt swap my ticket for anyother
As for the break he has had since he beat battlecry and co in a small handicp chase if i remember rightly at 6/4 he didnt beat much battlecry the biggest dawg in racing history
but he did it well enough i think the break will have done him good and he will be fresh and ready to go and do himself justice hope were cheering him up the hill come festival time mateNicky Henderson is not going to run a horse owned by the Queen if he didn’t think the horse would run a big race; I would assume that Henderson is a trainer who leaves no stone unturned when it comes to the preparation of his horses. Given that it was the loss on the racecourse of one of the Queens horses a long time ago that made the Queen specialize in the breeding and running of flat horses, I hope that Barbers Shop comes home safe and sound; I’m not a Royalist; far from it but, as I said in another post, the publicity for nh racing in this country if the Queen had a winner would be huge, albeit rather enforcing joe public’s opinion that racing is for the rich [well; at the end of the day it probably is!]
Denman still being pushed out in the betting.
Will be a massive shame if he is declared a non-runner, but Nicholls thinks that he can get the horse back if he has a good Summer off.
Am I right in thinking that Exotic Dancer normally runs like a dog having had a long time off the track? In the build up to last year’s event (despite setbacks etc) the big worry from connections viewpoint was about him not having a run in the preceeding months to the race. In the race itself, he ran poorly. Having not run since Christmas, is this not a worry to anybody thinking of backing ED to finally end his Kauto hoodoo?
Denman confirmed runner … if you believe Harry..
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