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Equitrack, Amazing that you mention Air force One and Roll Along in your list of Gold Cup fancies when both have been easily brushed aside by Albertas Run! in fact Albertas beat Air force twice last season giving him weight in the Reynoldstown then cruised past both in the Sun Alliance! I
guess you forgot that!I am of the theory that the big 2 Denman/Kauto are not worth backing Ante-post for the Gold Cup which is over 4 months away purely at the restrictive odds they currently trade and the fact that the P.Nicholls camp
are split as to who is actually the better! Their form is above every horse that has challenged them and failed so i am looking for something that hasn"t run against either but is progressing with experience and has Gold Cup aspirations! ALBERTAS RUN ticks all the boxes and at 33/1 could be an e/w player! After he has won the Hennessey he will be aimed for the Gold Cup! Trevor Hemmings knows this horse has a touch of the Trabolgans about him!You’ve got to stop this nonsense now. Seriously.
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No, GWILSON77, I haven’t forgotten that, I simply think they are (potentially) better horses than Alberta’s Run. Air Force One impressed when beating Pomme Tiepy at Punchestown toward the end of last season, and Roll Along has already proved himself to be very much on the upgrade.
Both ran incredibly well at Ascot on Saturday and were obviously considered ‘too hot to handle’ by Alberta’s Run’s connections, them preferring a thumping from Tidal Bay instead.
Both ran incredibly well at Ascot on Saturday and were obviously considered ‘too hot to handle’ by Alberta’s Run’s connections, them preferring a thumping from Tidal Bay instead.
That’ll be tongue in cheek I suppose. I have no problem with anyone poo pooing the chances of Alberta’s Run in the Gold Cup, but the others mentioned have no stronger claims, despite the abject display of Jonjo’s fella on Sunday. Alberta’s Run was clearly the best horse in the RSA Chase and there’s no obvious reason why he should be less progressive than those behind. He may have developed a problem in the interim, but that’s a separate issue. For the record, I’m a Joe Lively fan and would weigh in with him should he line up in the Hennessy as he’s potentially more leniently treated and will be a much bigger price than the other second season chasers in the race. I’m not daft enough to think he’s going to win a Gold Cup though.
It’s worth remembering that Alberta’s Run also started his novice season with a thorough drubbing by Tidal Bay up at Aintree.
Before that race, Trevor Hemmings was mindful of "more important races to come". Granted, none of the connections were vocal about him needing it this time, but he probably did in a big way.
He was an impressive winner of the Sun Alliance, but there won’t be many winnable options for him now. Maybe take on Neptune Collonges in the Lexus?
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In reality, rory, there are only three horses who have a chance in this year’s Gold Cup – Neptune Collonges, Kauto Star and Denman. None of last year’s novices look up to the standard of the Nicholls trio and it’s difficult to believe that those ‘established’ in the staying ranks will suddenly step up to provide any semblance of competition.
The mention of Air Force One and Roll Along was to further accentuate the point that Alberta’s Run is highly unlikely to have any say in the Gold Cup, not least because he has those two to beat before even contemplating throwing down the gauntlet at the feet of the above. Yes, he beat them fair and square at Cheltenham and yes, he’ll probably come on a good deal for his hammering at the behest of Tidal Bay, but I maintain that Air Force One and Roll Along are better horses and have proven themselves to be still on the upgrade in running extremely well at Ascot.
That’s not to say that Alberta’s Run has it all to do just to beat them, merely that he is yet to confirm any superiority before the consideration of the likes of Denman.
Albert’s Run’s first race of the season should be totally ignored and has no bearing on how good he is.
One things for sure Kauto Star and Denman are in a different county to AR and it would take a miracle for him to cloe the gap. He simply is not that good and you can take that to the bank.
I agree in the right circumstance Neptune Collonges could upset the applecart but pound for pound Kauto would eat him for breakfast.
It was refresshing to read PN”s comments about Kauto Star and I would bet a pound to a penny he still believes of the two Kauto is the better horse.
I maintain the Ascot race soured Kauto and he was knowhere the same horse in the Gold Cup as he was at Kempton.
Ruby sort of blamed the ground but I think that wasn’t really the case. I maintain he just wasn’t right and he will prove me correct by beating Denman in the renewal.
Realitistically, there are only three horses who have a chance of winning the 2009 Cheltenham Gold Cup. They occupied the first three places in the 2008 Gold Cup.
But – should Denman arrive at the festival in a similar state of health akin to this year, then I maintain that it won’t matter one jot how many sheepskin nosebands the brilliant Kauto Star wears.
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But – should Denman arrive at the festival in a similar state of health akin to this year, then I maintain that it won’t matter one jot how many sheepskin nosebands the brilliant Kauto Star wears.
The brilliant Kauto Star will destroy Denman…wait… I said that last season and look what happened!
I’ve got high hopes this season for Kauto and he has started off well with a nice run at Down Royal. However, Denman is still the one to beat and it will take an epic performance (imo) to beat him under GC conditions.
No horse has ever regained the Gold Cup. No Denman and he’s probably a shoe-in to break that trend. With Denman, i can’t see a good reason he’d reverse the form.
It amazes me that anyone couldn’t see how off Kauto was in last seasons Gold Cup.
Had he met Denman se to be moved.
Denman was an awesome Gold Cup winner and I can see why he has many fans but he has one weakness. He will find absolutely nothing in a finish if he is challenged.
The only horse alive that can possibly do that if Denman is at his best is Kauto Star.
You cn bet your life if he gets to Cheltenham safe and sound you will not see a repeat of last year. He won’t be going to Ascot before hand and it wouldn’t suprise me if he has only 3 or maybe 4 runs prior to the Gold Cup.
PN will run him as little as possible top ensure he is 100% ready.
I have to disagree with you PC there are a couple of obvious reasons why I and many others believe he will turn the form round.
Some good judges are of the opinion Denman is unbeatable. I listend to Mick Fitz on video the other day and the way he was talking the race was already over. To me he and others on this occasion have a very short memories.
Denman was an awesome Gold Cup winner and I can see why he has many fans but he has one weakness. He will find absolutely nothing in a finish if he is challenged.
Says who? He found plenty against Don’t Push It at Newbury a couple of years back. Sam Thomas has often said that Denman likes to ‘take the micky’ out him and idles when he’s in front too.
Denman was an awesome Gold Cup winner and I can see why he has many fans but he has one weakness. He will find absolutely nothing in a finish if he is challenged.
I agree but the problem is hanging on to this beast once he gets going. I thought Denman was an overrated shopping trolley but he certainly proved me wrong; he’s immense. His style of running will cause any stayer problems and with the conditions at Cheltenham perfect for him he’s nigh on unbeatable in the Gold Cup.
However, I would never write Kauto off. He’s the most talented NH horse in training and on his day can beat anyone. I’d love to see him win another Gold Cup and there is no better way to do it than beating the mighty Denman! (fingers crossed)
Fist – Kauto only had 4 runs l season, so your arguement about KS "only" having 3 or 4 runs this season doesn’t really hold any water.
I couldn’t have Ascot sending him over the top either – absolutely hacked up on the bridle, didn’t really look a hard race.
He could reverse the form – he’s undoubtably a champion, and maybe better ground could make the neccessary difference. I doubt it personally. I thought they were all without excuses in the Gold Cup and so did Paul Nicholls.
3 things lost Kauto the GC last year:
1) The ground (& the distance as a result)
2) Ruby’s ride – I think he expected Denman to come back much quicker
3) The fact that Denman is an absolute machineGiven good ground and Ruby keeping closer tabs on the tank it should be a lot closer. Whether it’ll be close enough? I would still side with Denman but at the moment KS is certainly the more attractive AP proposition.
Fist – i’ve had the discussion about bridle horses with a very good friend of mine a few times over the years. Her reaction was always "it don’t matter what he finds off the bridle if he never comes off it" – tbh the only horse i’ve seen who I could say would possibly fit into that bracket is Denman.
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