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I nicked 50’s late last night GW, as I had already backed him for the Lexus.
I was hoping to get 80’s but read your post too late. It came in 30 points in the space of 7 or so hours.
On that performance, connections would be insane to dodge the GC. He’s proved he’s as good as ever and I’m yet to be convinced that KS is the same horse that won it a couple of years ago (ED a couple lengths back). If I’m right with my KS analysis, ED will finish in front of KS with a decent round of jumping. It’s only Denman and Neptune that worry me, as I’m sure the latter will come on for the run. I only have eyes for ED now.
Money Trix 50/1 runs tomorrow so I have to put my hand in my pocket and hopefuly he can get me back my EW AP stake by hacking up tomorrow. It’s a huge ask for him to be experienced enough to be taking them on in the Gold Cup but this is a very very good horse with a big future if Nicky Richards can keep him sound. Yard won with Palomar yesterday at Catterick who is now 25/1 for the Arkle and he wouldn’t blow wind up this fellows backside.
He’s never taken on chasers as good as those he faces tomorrow but he jumps for fun and travels really well. Hopefully he can stay with them and do them for toe as he was superior to GTL over hurdles. Not going all the way down to Newbury for fun that’s for sure.
So we have kauto to finish in front of denman with a decent round of jumping and exotic dancer beating kauto with a decent round of jumping? What next?
So we have kauto to finish in front of denman with a decent round of jumping and exotic dancer beating kauto with a decent round of jumping? What next?
What I’m saying ‘superkauto’ is…KS’s King George win has told me nothing with regards to whether he’s the same horse that beat ED in the 2007 GC. I feel that ED is as good, if not better than ever and even with a better round of jumping from KS, would finish behind ED next time IMO. Clear as mud?
Peter Marsh then Aon would be my call but he’s apparently got others for the Haydock race (Big Bucks etc)
In the interview with Sam thomas in this week’s Horse and Hound (starts on page 44) he reckons that Denman will re-appear in the Peter Marsh.
So we have kauto to finish in front of denman with a decent round of jumping and exotic dancer beating kauto with a decent round of jumping? What next?
What I’m saying ‘superkauto’ is…KS’s King George win has told me nothing with regards to whether he’s the same horse that beat ED in the 2007 GC. I feel that ED is as good, if not better than ever and even with a better round of jumping from KS, would finish behind ED next time IMO. Clear as mud?
what if kauto puts in a good round of jumping will ED out stay kauto ?
Bosranic,
I like a bit of humour in these posts, and you obviously have a touch
of it! but "Albertas run" will stay a lot further than "Kauto star" will,
Cheltenhams stiff 31/4m will see the gap between them narrow far more
than you realise! "Albertas" is still improving and if he gets his ideal good ground he will quieten quite a few on here!Two years ago, a lot of people, including me, thought that Exotic Dancer would get closer to Kauto Star at Cheltenham, but it didn’t happen.
[edit: Well, actually it did; 8 lengths at Kempton got reduced to 2.5 lengths at Cheltenham. But that’s not what I mean. After the last, Kauto Star didn’t look in any danger of being beaten by Exotic Dancer. (I’m relying on memory, because I don’t see races again and again.)]
As far as I see it there four possible winners of the Gold Cup : Denman, Kauto Star, Neptune Collonges, Albertas Run.
The rest you might as well forget.
Despite last years race I still can’t make my mind up who is the most likely winner Kauto or Denman, probably depends on the ground.
It was an encouraging run by Albertas who was one of my initial ante post bets for the Gold Cup along with AFO, but I’m not sure he was finding much in last year’s Sun Alliance to say he’ll definitely get home stronger than Kauto in the Gold Cup. It will be interesting to see if they can get another run into him so we can fully weigh up the form as I suspect its not as good as everybody is making out. True AR had much better ground than previously, which begs the question why run him twice on ground he doesn’t go on, I do though suspect the way he ran in both races there was something else not right with him. It was clear for all to see that VPU didn’t stay which gives, the Pipe horses and Imperial Commander were under a cloud and maybe even the Mann horses. That then leaves Briarus and Snoopy Loopy as the other yardsticks and Briarus is way below Gr1 standard and Snoopy ran no race. I would say AR ran to about 155 though I may be a little harsh, which makes Kauto’s run about 170 given that he had a few pounds in hand come the finish. That makes it a good run but nowhere near his 1st Betfair or last year’s KG or Ascot Chase. Whether that makes either the 1st 2 Gold Cup contenders is debateable as we don’t know Denman’s well being, but right now the one horse I am maybe siding with at the prices is Barbers Shop who could improve further for the trip, is one of the few horses in the field who is still progressing and though he hasn’t won there yet, has 2 very solid bits of form round there from his last two races at the track.
Peter Marsh then Aon would be my call but he’s apparently got others for the Haydock race (Big Bucks etc)
In the interview with Sam thomas in this week’s Horse and Hound (starts on page 44) he reckons that Denman will re-appear in the Peter Marsh.
Haven’t they already now said he definitely won’t run in the Peter Marsh? The official reason is the track might not suit, but the feeling is Big Bucks would be a better proposition given his handicap mark and is less likely to be giving decent horses tonnes of weight. They have more or less said it will be the Aon with maybe the Pertemps qualifier at Warwick next month as a pipe opener. Knew Wincanton was a non starter, least of all because of the way round it goes.
I would say AR ran to about 155 though I may be a little harsh,
LITTLE HARSH? So "Voy Por" ran over a stone below his mark, and the time "Kauto"clocked makes him 170 My ARSEnal will never lose to Man city!!I wonder how Denman will perform when he reappears, but it has to be a worry that he has not run yet this season. Kauto, I am not convinced about, although winning the King George, his performance in the Betfair was too bad to be true. Perhaps he shines at Kempton, or maybe he is a better horse on right handed tracks. I was very encouraged by War of Attritions run in the Lexus, he is most definitely better on good ground and at Cheltenham. I think he has definite place possibilities in the Gold Cup.
JohnJ
Just took Denman to Finishes 2nd or 3rd under Sam Thomas 5/1 at sporting bet
I really rate that bet.
Considering one of PN’s excuses for Kautos bad run in the Betfair was ‘Ruby knows the horse better, Sams only ridden him once’ it’d make me think come March Sam will be on Denman, Ruby on Kauto
I would say AR ran to about 155 though I may be a little harsh,
LITTLE HARSH? So "Voy Por" ran over a stone below his mark, and the time "Kauto"clocked makes him 170 My ARSEnal will never lose to Man city!!Not sure your post came out full as you wanted it, but I’d say VPU has never run anywhere near his best form in the before New Year, certainly not the last 2 seasons and I don’t believe he was anywhere near his best but my reckoning still rates him 152-154 which is not a bad effort over a trip which was not his and a way round that may not be his best. Its all about opinions and that is mine, yours is different and you are entitled to it.
As for Denman and him not appearing, had it been unknown why and a shock to us all, then fair enough, but we have known about it all along and why so I am less worried about the absence just concerned about the reason and whether it can be fully recovered from. Its OK saying Eurotrek had it and came back as good as ever but did he not win 1st time back then nothing else? Time will tell, but I am looking past the leading 2 and was not too disappointed with Neptune Collonges run as he is not usually right first time back and was running a huge race before tipping up. He is still unexposed and while maybe not improving, if he runs to last years form and gets no firmer than good ground could be the one, with Barbers Shop also a consideration.Entries out today and on the RP site.
All of the usual suspects:
Denman, Kauto, Neptune, Exotic et al
3 Wilson no-hopers surely not capable of anything near their ratings nowadays (Milan Deux Mille, Cerium, Arteea).
No French entries though
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