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I’m just not sure how good coming 2nd to mon mome is even giving that much weight away.
Does the fact that the pair pulled 19 lengths clear not concern you at all that the form might just be mustard, Andrew? Bear in mind also that Mom Mome made the frame in a Classic Chase, SkyBet Chase, Red Square Vodka Gold Cup and William Hill Trophy, all from a mark equal to or higher than the one he had on Friday.
Hi all,
For me it still has to be Denman. He is the champ and even with a suspect ticker I think he’ll be too strong for the rest. Anything around evens or better is value for me on Denman albeit I’m not a big gambler.
The brilliant Kauto Star is clearly not the same horse he once was in my opinion. He hasn’t been the same since picking up that minor injury pre-Cheltenham 2008. Not that I’m blaming the injury, I just feel his decline started around then. However, a Kauto Star at 80% can still cause any top horse a problem or two.
Of the other contenders in with a squeak it would have to be Neptune Collonges for me.
Mon Momes mustard form? Sky Bet Chase:- Beaten 26 lengths giving ten pounds to simon . 2008 William Hill Trophy:- beaten 23 lengths carrying 10-8, 2007 William Hill Trophy:- beaten 9 lengths off 142 carrying 11-1 (Juveigneur 8 lengths ahead off 147 carrying 11-9), Red Square:- beaten 16 lengths, giving Heltornic 11lbs
A very decent handicapper, dont get me wrong. But not to base Gold Cup form on…. However, we all get it wrong sometimes(or most of the time) and would love to see a decent price spring a surprise more than anybody.
Mon Momes mustard form? Sky Bet Chase:- Beaten 26 lengths giving ten pounds to simon . 2008 William Hill Trophy:- beaten 23 lengths carrying 10-8, 2007 William Hill Trophy:- beaten 9 lengths off 142 carrying 11-1 (Juveigneur 8 lengths ahead off 147 carrying 11-9), Red Square:- beaten 16 lengths, giving Heltornic 11lbs
A very decent handicapper, dont get me wrong. But not to base Gold Cup form on…. However, we all get it wrong sometimes(or most of the time) and would love to see a decent price spring a surprise more than anybody.
Would judge SDM on a) beating Mon Mome giving lumps of weight away (we’re always getting told that to be the best you have to give weight away)
b) He’s beaten the exceptionally well handicapped Character Building out of sight also.
He’s beaten the exceptionally well handicapped Character Building out of sight also.
Denman done the same in the Hennesey, a lot lot more impressively than SdM the other day, then improved over 20lbs and then won the Gold Cup just as impressively.
Mon Momes mustard form?
A very decent handicapper, dont get me wrong. But not to base Gold Cup form on….
The strength of Star De Mohaison’s performance is not solely based on Mon Mome.
That was a H’cap last week, and not a conditions event. And it was a 100k H’cap to boot. Simon and Harmony Brig were both laid out for it. Possol had just beaten Mon Mome last time, and was now 19 lengths behind, albeit on too soft ground. I could also quote Fists who wrote that Character Building will never be as well-handicapped again (but I am saving that for another article later this week
).I’m adding the following as an edit, as I don’t want to make yet another posting.
Because Star De Mohaison and Mon Mome have had a battle to the line, they have had to reveal what they had up their sleeve.
I can easily imagine people saying after the next time the pair run that they have improved since Cheltenham, when in reality they are just reproducing their previously under-regarded form.Second edit
I only watch races once, but there must have been something wrong with the pace of the race, or the going. You do not have races worth 57k to the winner, where only 3 of the 15 runners are fit. Whatever caused the other horses to fade did not affect SdM & MM (or Possol), they had extra stores of strength or endurance or whatever to overcome it. These are comments from the results on the sportinglife website:
Character Building "weakened approaching last"
Harmony Brig "weakened after two out"
Fundamentalist "weakened after two out" (okay, I said this one wouldn’t stay)
Simon "weakened after three out"
Trigger The Light "mistake 4 out, soon weakened"
Irish Raptor "weakened 4 out"
Parsons Legacy "weakened 16th, tailed off and pulled up before 2 out"I’ve left out comments about horses we wouldn’t expect to be fully fit (One Sniff , Itsmyboy & Comply Or Die) or horses that may have become injured (Turko & Verasi)
He’s beaten the exceptionally well handicapped Character Building out of sight also.
Denman done the same in the Hennesey, a lot lot more impressively than SdM the other day, then improved over 20lbs and then won the Gold Cup just as impressively.
Damn, I feel like I’m becoming a bully.
Racing Post gave Denman a rating of 180 for the Hennessy, and a slightly dodgy 185 for the Gold Cup. So he didn’t improve by 20lbs, only 5lbs.
Nice to meet you by the way
Nice to meet you too Gerald. As regards your last post, we’ll have to wait and see…… official ratings can be misleading and are very often wrong.
I do hope the two horses end up crossing paths…. and I’ll be more than happy to be proved wrong
Andrew, I’ve added two edits at the bottom of page 11 that you might not have read.
Gerald
ok gerald, but dont you agree that most of runners who finished in the top nine would really need more of a stamina test.(apart from Trigger the Light who blundered his way out of contention) the fact the pace set wasnt the best, i would tend to think most of them simply got done for speed rather than "weakening"?
Just my opinion.
Denman done the same in the Hennesey, a lot lot more impressively than SdM the other day, then improved over 20lbs and then won the Gold Cup just as impressively.
Can I just point out that Denman didn’t have to improve anywhere near 20 lbs after his Hennessy win to take the Gold Cup- you’d be lucky if it was seven. Granted, his Hennessy performance was the thick end of a stone superior to SdM’s on Friday.
thats true enough, but i think people are making more of his problems than his problems actually are….. connections seem happy enough with him, the bookies still have him clear favourite and so i just feel some people are trying to make a case for other prospects, thinking they might get some sort of value from the race. Adding the fact his style of running, dont think he’ll necessarily need to be at his best to have them struggling a long way out again
A good friend/Jockey at the time once told me "to even run in the Champion Hurdle or the Gold Cup you have to be 110% fit" of course your horse can’t be 110% fit but the point he was making is unless you are spot on you are going to win nothing.
I happen to agree despite having backed Kauto Star (Couldn’t resist the 7/1EW) as things stand Denman should win the Gold Cup.
BUT when you look at all the factors he is anything but a good thing.
He’s had a heart problem which is slightly worrying.
The race was run in a glue pot last season which was right up Denman’s street.
He finished a very very tired horse wandering of a straight line when hitting the rising ground. Couldn’t have foughto f a flea at that point.
Kauto Star was said to be not himslef by Ruby Walsh something the proximity of Neptune Collonges seems to back up.
Taking Kauto out of the race a 7 lengths victory over NC is hardly unbeatable form.
There are some new and exciting chaser who might take him on and prove to be a bigger danger than the 2nd and 3rd turned out to be last season.
If Kauto Star bounces back to his best at Kempton and on the day we get good ground he could quite easily beat Denman.
As I said Ithink youare right and Denman should win the Gold Cup but there are too many ifs and butts to mark him down as a certainty. Master Minded is more what I would call a certainty as no matter which way you look at it the only danger to him is himslef
I’d rather be having my tank on a 5/4 novice hurdler of Nicky Hendersons than risk an AP bet on Denman at such short odds for what could turn out to be a much tougher race than expected
ok gerald, but dont you agree that most of runners who finished in the top nine would really need more of a stamina test.(apart from Trigger the Light who blundered his way out of contention) the fact the pace set wasnt the best, i would tend to think most of them simply got done for speed rather than "weakening"?
Just my opinion.
Andrew, I’ve been wondering the same thing myself, about the speed at the end of the race rather than the "weakening", but have been handicapped by only seeing the race once. Isn’t it still an impressive performance though to pull out 19 lengths in the latter stage of the race? It still makes me want to give Possol & Character Building their mark, as I am sure that both are better than their OR.
BTW, Official Mark for Star De Mohaison is now 162. We’ll just have to wait and see, and in the meantime waste our time arguing and thinking about something else.
BTW, Official Mark for Star De Mohaison is now 162. We’ll just have to wait and see, and in the meantime waste our time arguing and thinking about something else.
Damn right, didnt even want to discuss the Gold Cup really as like I said, think it’s a formality.I just knew that some people would see SdMs performance on the weekend and get excited about (whereas I will continue to think of that race as dodgy).
Bored of arguing about it myself now, just felt the need to for some reason.
Hi all,
For me it still has to be Denman. He is the champ and even with a suspect ticker I think he’ll be too strong for the rest. Anything around evens or better is value for me on Denman albeit I’m not a big gambler.
The brilliant Kauto Star is clearly not the same horse he once was in my opinion. He hasn’t been the same since picking up that minor injury pre-Cheltenham 2008. Not that I’m blaming the injury, I just feel his decline started around then. However, a Kauto Star at 80% can still cause any top horse a problem or two.
Of the other contenders in with a squeak it would have to be Neptune Collonges for me.
Hi and welcome.
Kauto Star I agree with you he is a French bred with some tough races in the book.His best is past.On Denman,I think you must be nuts.Horses with problems don’t win Gold Cups.Denman we have been told has had a problem big enough to ensure that it required at least six months rest and rehab.That cannot be overlooked.
I want to acknowledge a champion but I unfortunately believe that Denman will be a one season wonder.It is a shame and I hope I am wrong.
Nobody who is close to the horse wants to say anything about it.They talk about transparency and all that tosh but this is an issue no one wants to address.
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